The market says: those who follow me will prosper, and those who oppose me will die;

investors say: a wise man is a wise man;

financial xiaobai said: you can't go wrong by following the market.

so is investment. The so-called "current affairs" and "market" here refer to the market cycle and economic cycle. The market cycle can be short-term, 3-5 years, or longer; The economic cycle is medium and long term, 5 years, 8 years, 1 years and so on.

For investors, the market cycle often refers to the performance cycle of listed companies. Under what market environment, what kind of investment strategy is adopted has a great influence on their fund investment. The economic cycle often refers to the macro-environment, and what assets should be allocated for a long time under what circumstances is more conducive to your wealth planning.

remember the investment clock of Merrill Lynch? In fact, in the rapidly developing China, many classic western financial theories are not necessarily applicable in China. Just like the investment clock of Merrill Lynch, it may have become an "electric fan" of Merrill Lynch long ago. Therefore, under such frequent cycle changes, it is very important to choose the fund according to the market rhythm. There is no subscription fee for buying private equity funds to go to the private placement network.

how to choose a private equity fund? How to choose private equity funds according to the cycle?

step 1: judge the cycle.

according to the public information, I sorted out the ups and downs of the major stock indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen in recent five years for comparison.

The information we can get from the above figure is:

1. The performance of small companies fluctuates greatly. In 213 and 215, the performance of small-cap stocks was relatively strong, but in 214 and 217, and in 216 after the stock market crash, the performance was obviously worse than that of large-cap stocks.

2. The volatility of large companies is getting smaller and smaller.

3. In 217, the performance of small-cap stocks began to differentiate.

4. In 215, large-cap stocks went out directly, while the Growth Enterprise Market Index nearly doubled in 215, up by 84.41%;

5. 216 is a typical bear market, with all the indexes falling, but the weight decreasing slightly.

6. In 214, the large-cap stocks were stronger, and the surge in brokers and insurance made everyone unable to understand. But the index went up, but it didn't make any money.

As you can see from the above figure, the switch between large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks, bull market and bear market is changing every year, and even if you know it later, you may not make money. There is no subscription fee for buying a private equity fund to go to the private placement network. Therefore, if your investment strategy is wrong, it will definitely have a greater impact on the investment of the fund. Furthermore, if you set up a fund portfolio, the fluctuation of the bond fund is small and the money fund is more stable, so the only one that can ultimately affect the portfolio income is the stock fund.

if the year is taken as the unit, 213 and 214 are obviously the cycles of large-cap stocks, while in 216 and 217, the former is a typical bear market and the latter is a typical shock market.

how to choose a private equity fund? How to choose private equity funds according to the cycle?

Step 2: Select the fund type according to the cycle.

when the market is in the cycle of big companies, it will be a better choice to choose larger value funds (mainly investing in large-cap blue chips). However, when the market is in the cycle of small companies, the difference between price and decline will be greater, so growth funds (mainly investing in small-cap growth) with higher Sharp ratio, smaller standard deviation and smaller scale should be chosen.

of course, the above is mainly aimed at the market cycle. If it is a macro cycle, it will be divided into many situations.

recovery period: low growth and low currency, relatively stable price level and low interest rate. At this time, everything needs to be done, the social demand is increasing, and the growth potential of listed companies is the greatest. At this time, we should buy stock funds and share the high returns brought by the securities market.

overheating period: high inflation, continued economic growth, rising prices and interest rates. At this time, we should focus on hedging, reduce the proportion of equity funds and increase investment in money market tools such as money funds to avoid the risk of rising interest rates.

Stagnation: deflation, lower prices, lower interest rates and economic slowdown. At this time, it should be more conservative. Investors can increase the proportion of solid investment, such as long-term bonds and bank time deposits. Because the performance of bonds has a great relationship with monetary policy, when the monetary policy is relatively loose and the market interest rate is at a historical low, it is the time to buy bond funds. In addition, there is a seesaw effect between the stock market and the bond market. When the stock market is depressed, it is also the time to invest in bond funds.

recession: the growth rate of currency issuance continues to rise, but the economic growth stops, and the probability of systemic risks increases. At this time, holding physical assets such as houses, cash, gold, etc. can better avoid market risks.

finally, paipaijun needs to mention that there are two special cycles, which we can also grasp.

1. At the end of the month/quarter/year, banks are faced with MPA assessment, and the cash outflow for consumption increases, which is the time when they are most short of money when entering the market. If there is a shortage of funds, the interest rate will rise. At this time, buying a money fund will yield higher returns.

2. Considering the factors of exchange rate fluctuation, when the RMB depreciates and the US dollar appreciates, investing in QDII funds can avoid the risk of RMB depreciation.