The United States has stepped up its harsh language towards China, hoping that Europe will follow suit, but Europe cannot afford to do so.
The U.S. government has been paying special attention to China. Soon after President Joe Biden took office, this topic became the main content of international discussion. In recent months, related remarks and actions have escalated. For example, Gina Raimondeau, the US Secretary of Commerce, said on Wednesday that China is a growing threat to American businesses.
Raimondeau. Associated press data map
This information has been shared and recognized in Europe. It is reported that American officials told European officials to consider imposing export controls on China. This channel contacted the US Department of Commerce on Thursday, but the department did not immediately comment on it. On June+10, 5438, the United States restricted China's access to some technologies developed by the United States.
Although the European Union has called China a "strategic opponent" on different occasions, the attitude pursued by Europe is different from that of the United States.
Anna Rosenberg, director of geopolitics at Credit Suisse Asset Management, said in an interview with this channel on Thursday: "The EU is trying to formulate its own China strategy which is different from that of the United States. This strategy aims to' reduce' the risk of China-EU relations, rather than' decoupling'. " "Decoupling" refers to the separation of economic ties between the two superpowers. But for Europe, this is not in its interest.
According to the data of the European Statistics Department, China is the third largest buyer of European goods and the most important market for imported products from 20021European countries. China's importance as a European market is even more prominent when the European economy is struggling because of the Russian special military action against Ukraine.
"The United States is trying to pull Europe in its own direction and keep its distance from China, while Europe is keen on maintaining economic ties with China. The economic consequences of the war will affect the European economy more seriously next year, which makes this desire even stronger. " Rosenberg said.
Li, director of the European Center for International Political Economy, a think tank, also told this channel that "there are not many markets in Europe" to deal with. He also said that European Council President Charles Michel may visit China to discuss measures to further alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
German Chancellor Olaf Schultz also visited China at the beginning of 10. Rosenberg said: "We believe that the relationship between Europe and China will actually improve in the short term. This is evidence that Michelle's visit is so close to Schultz's visit to China. "
At the same time, the relationship between Europe and the United States is also deteriorating slightly. Li said: "Transatlantic relations are in the worst state in 20 years."
European officials expressed dissatisfaction with the state subsidies proposed by the US government to support the promotion of electric vehicles. EU countries believe that this is a challenge to international trade rules and a threat to European enterprises.
French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with Biden on Thursday, hoping to bridge some differences and avoid new trade disputes.
Extended reading
After Macron came back from the United States, Europeans decided that it was the last straw.
Beijing, 65438+February 7 Recently, facing the United States, European leaders could not sit still.
French President Macron's recent state visit to the United States is regarded as the "last chance" for Europe and America to avoid slipping into a "trade war". However, according to Bernd Lange, Chairman of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament, it seems futile to avoid the crisis through negotiations. It is necessary for Europe to launch a counterattack and "sue" the United States in the WTO.
Why does the United States, which promises to restore the transatlantic partnership, always give European allies nightmares?
When the United States acts, Europe is in a dilemma.
A few months ago, the United States promulgated the Inflation Reduction Act, which is a very attractive "trump card" for enterprises.
From the investment in clean energy such as wind power generation to the production of electric vehicles, batteries and related accessories, as long as the main production links are completed in the United States from June 65438 to October 2023 10, there will be tax-free "big gift packages" to reward high subsidies, and the planned allocation will be as high as 400 billion US dollars in 10.
The surge in energy prices triggered by the Ukrainian crisis has long overwhelmed European companies. At this time, the United States threw out huge concessions. How can European companies not be "crazy"?
Not only Germany and France, the economic leaders of the European Union, but also enterprises from European countries such as the Netherlands have accelerated the transfer of industrial layout to the other side of the ocean.
In the view of EU officials, the United States is trying to embarrass Europe through this move. They have accused the United States of engaging in trade protectionism and violating WTO rules, which will aggravate the contraction of industrial production in Europe.
5438+ 10 In June, German Chancellor Angela Scholz said that she would have in-depth discussions with the United States on the bill. He is worried that the US practice will trigger a "tariff war". German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Chabeck hit the nail on the head and thought that the United States was "searching" for Europe.
In May 5438+065438+ 10, Macron personally hosted a banquet in the Elysee Palace twice, once to convene the energy consumption and carbon emissions of French manufacturing giants, and the other to convene the heads of a number of European "head enterprises" such as Ericsson, Volvo, Unilever and AstraZeneca, with only one purpose-please leave the production line in Europe. He also revisited the "Buy European Products Act" in Sarkozy's era, hoping to compete with the United States and save the process of re-industrialization in Europe.
France also decided to fight back with Germany. On June 22nd, local time, 1 1, the two countries reached a joint statement, * * * launched a "defense war" for the European economy, announcing the protection of European industries and boycotting the American bill.
Give face, throw a lining.
In this context, Macron embarked on a journey of "Syrian friendship" and "seeking fairness" towards the United States.
One of Macron's tasks is to express the strong relationship between France and the United States to US President Biden; The second task is to convey Europe's demands and call on the United States not to punish Europe with "radical" inflation reduction laws. According to the US "Politics" website, Macron's visit is on behalf of the opinions of the 27 EU countries, trying to persuade Biden to adopt the Mexican and Canadian models and grant exemptions to some European industries.
In the face of US congressmen, Macron lashed out at the US for harming European interests, but in his talks with Biden, his tone softened obviously. France wants to be "respected as a good friend" by the United States, and Macron said that "a strong European ally is in the interest of the United States".
However, the reality is very skinny. Biden promised during the talks that the bill could be "fine-tuned" to respond to the concerns of the EU, but White House spokesman Jean-Pierre later said that he would not seek the US Congress to amend the law.
Although Macron won face with a $500,000 White House state banquet, Europe did not find a "lining".
It was "released several times" by the United States
In recent years, France and Europe have indeed been "put in several ways" by the United States, and Macron has repeatedly criticized the United States for harming others and benefiting themselves.
The first round: grab the big submarine order
In September of 20021year, the United States, Britain and Australia set up a trilateral security partnership "Ocuss", which kicked France out and took away the "century contract" for France to build a 12 submarine for Australia. Macron was so angry that he recalled his ambassadors to the United States and Australia.
Later, Biden personally went to the residence of the French ambassador to Italy to meet with Macron, and foreign media said that the two sides had "reconciled".
The second round: sky-high natural gas
Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has asked its European allies to impose sanctions on Russia, which has caused Europe to fall into an energy crisis and forced it to buy American natural gas. The American media "Business Insider" quoted estimated data, saying that the price of a ship of liquefied natural gas purchased from the United States rose to 275 million dollars when it arrived in Europe, and the profit of a ship was as high as 65.438+0.5 billion dollars.
In June 5438 +2022 10, Macron shouted at an entrepreneur conference in Paris that the United States and Norway sold natural gas to European countries at three to four times their own prices. "This is not the true meaning of friendship."
The third round: exclusive "small circle"
During the G20 Summit held in Indonesia from June, 20438 to October, 2022, Macron once again expressed dissatisfaction with the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" of the United States and Ocuss's exclusion of France.
The fourth round: inflation reduction bill
In fact, during the G20 meeting, Macron has already mentioned the negative impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act on the EU economy, and this issue is naturally the top priority during his visit to the United States.
But when Macron came back from the United States, Europeans found that nothing had changed.
The commentary believes that Macron's "confidence" in resolving differences is actually just a diplomatic gesture. If the United States really includes European countries in the scope of subsidies, it will only increase the dependence of European enterprises on the United States in green investment, which is not in line with the long-term goal of "European autonomy."
"European autonomy", how to fight back?
Fundamentally speaking, "European autonomy" means that Europe is out of dependence on the United States. This is the goal that Macron has worked hard since he took office, and it is also a growing sense of * * * in many European countries.
Earlier, EU Internal Market Commissioner Bredon expressed his dissatisfaction with the action. He believes that the United States has "not paid enough attention" to the issues raised by Europe and refused to visit the United States to attend the US-Europe trade and technology summit.
Fabayre, the financial spokesperson of the European People's Party, the largest party group in the European Parliament, advocates a tough policy toward the United States. He pointed out that if the United States goes its own way on the road of trade protectionism, the EU will have to "put all torture tools on the table". "This is definitely a' nuclear option', and no one wants to see such a situation at present".
Langer, Chairman of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament, urged the EU authorities to lodge a complaint with the WTO as soon as possible about the US actions. Langer assumed that during the European and American negotiations, the implementation of the inflation reduction law might achieve "some minor changes", but he did not think there would be much substantial change.
On February 4th, 65438, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, voiced that American policy "distorted the market" and split the global supply chain. He believes that the EU should take action to re-evaluate the capital supply in Europe as a whole and balance the competition brought by the implementation of the inflation reduction bill in the United States.
Since the inflation reduction bill will take effect in less than four weeks, the EU can play a "card" against the United States with limited choices. This may include the "Buy European Products Act" mentioned by Macron. If trade frictions escalate in the future, Europe will not rule out retaliating by imposing tariffs on American goods.
The European version of the US "political" website revealed that providing a large amount of subsidies to European enterprises through the "European sovereign fund" is also one of the emergency measures considered by the EU. The European Commission and European countries realize that in order to prevent the European continent from becoming an "industrial wasteland", they must act quickly before enterprises change their production layout.
American political websites, Qatar Al Jazeera news, Financial Times, The Economist and other mainstream media all come to similar conclusions, that is, American measures such as "economic nationalism", "Made in America" and "American priority" are undermining transatlantic trade, making Europe a victim and aggravating the tension between Europe and the United States.
The editorial of the European Times pointed out that for the United States, the areas where the United States and Europe can fight side by side are limited to ideological unity, and they are tough on Russia and middle countries. Once the interests of the United States are touched, sorry, weapons and natural gas have to be bought from the United States, investment can only flow to the United States, and the competitiveness of enterprises must be the first in the United States.
Economists have calculated the subsidy policy in the United States. Even if the EU subsidizes domestic enterprises to the maximum extent, its competitiveness is only 1/4 of that of the United States. In other words, if you buy an electric car made in the United States, you can get a price reduction of $8,000, while if you buy it in Europe, you can only get a subsidy of $2,000 at most.
Regardless of the joys and sorrows, only the moment when European and American allies show unity is always so short. When will Europe wake up from its nightmare?