The decline in US crude oil inventories, Egyptian turmoil and speculative fund speculation have led to a sharp rise in international oil prices since July, with new york oil prices rising by nearly 10% and Brent oil prices rising by more than 7%. Experts predict that domestic refined oil prices may hit the highest increase since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism, and the price adjustment will be realized as soon as 24: 00 tomorrow (19).

Speculative funds push up international oil prices

Since the end of June, the situation in Egypt has been turbulent again, coupled with the obvious decline in US crude oil inventories, which has rekindled the enthusiasm of speculative funds to speculate on oil prices.

According to the latest data of speculative fund positions, the net positions of new york crude oil futures speculative fund have been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 305,400 lots as of July 9, a record high. Compared with the lowest level in the year on April 30 this year, the increase reached 45.5%.

Liu Yaqin, a senior analyst at China International Futures, said that this summer, the strong demand for oil in the United States and the concentrated outbreak of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East provided an excuse for speculative funds to speculate on oil prices. Recently, speculative capital positions have reached a record high, which shows the enthusiasm of speculative capital.

Since July, new york crude oil futures price has risen to $0/06 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of 9.8%. London Brent crude oil futures price rose from about $ 102 per barrel to more than $ 109, with a cumulative increase of 7. 1%.

Oil prices are expected to rise by more than 300 yuan/ton.

The latest adjustment of domestic refined oil prices occurred at 24: 00 on July 5. According to the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the refined oil price adjustment window will be opened again this Friday (July 19). According to the data released by Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on July 17, the average price change rate of crude oil on July 16 was 5.29%.

Zhang Pei, an analyst at China Trade Research Center, said that on the first working day of the new pricing cycle, the international oil price rose by more than $2/barrel, which laid the foundation for this round of oil price increase. Subsequently, the political situation in Egypt was turbulent, and US crude oil inventories fell sharply, pushing up international crude oil prices.

Li Hong, an analyst of refined oil products in the business community, believes that this round of domestic refined oil price adjustment is likely to usher in the biggest increase since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism. It is estimated that the increase will be around 300-350 yuan per ton, and the corresponding increase of gasoline will be between 0.22-0.25 yuan per liter.

Million car purchase subsidy