On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes both rose by nearly 1%, and the trading volume of the two cities shrank slightly compared with the previous day. Considering the impact of the small holiday, the trading volume on Friday is understandable; For three consecutive days, the volume of transactions exceeded the pressure line, indicating that the market is gradually becoming active.

Daily chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index on April 1, 222

2. Sustained increase of leading theme sectors

On Friday, the real estate sector continued to rise, and the real estate industry leaders such as Zhaobao Wanjin increased in volume in the afternoon. There were signs that some large institutional funds flowed to the real estate sector, which also meant that the real estate sector may continue to rise in the short term.

in the last three weeks, the real estate sector has continued to rise, becoming the most certain theme direction of the sector; This week, the surge in bank stocks also contributed greatly to the rise of the index; The rise of the two major weight plates has played a very important role in getting rid of the chaotic state in which the plates rotate too fast and lack the money-making effect.

3. The shortage of market funds will gradually ease

Recently, the market funds are obviously insufficient. However, the central bank strengthened financial support in various fields, and these funds were gradually replenished; 2 trillion insurance funds will be released soon; Coupled with corporate repurchase funds, bank financing self-purchased funds, and fund companies self-purchased funds, the funds in the stock market will be gradually supplemented.

with the continuous collection of funds from various sources, off-exchange funds will gradually flow back into the market, which will help the index to further strengthen and cross the resistance range of 329 ~ 332 points, which may be just around the corner.

with the entry of institutional funds, large-cap stocks will become the vane of the sector again, and it is necessary to observe whether the market opportunities will change in the future. Will short-term fund speculation come to an end? Does the market money-making effect return to the trend investment logic of the middle line? The possibility of a double dip in the index is very small

At present, the market has a high degree of understanding of the policy bottom and a high degree of recognition of the covering gap, so where is the market bottom? After breaking through the resistance range of 329~332, what will be the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index? Or continue to attack the resistance above 335, and then move to the box position of 34~35 points?

Previously, there were more opinions that the index would bottom out again, and finally confirm the market bottom. According to the previous bottoming process of A shares, many people think that the market bottom will even be lower than the policy bottom, that is to say, the low point of the second bottoming may be lower than the low point of the policy bottom of 323 points; I personally don't agree with this.

1. This bottoming will be different from previous A-share bottoming

Previously, some people combed the A-share bottoming for four times. The four bottoming times were in different historical periods and faced different difficult situations, and the distance between the policy bottom and the market bottom reflected in the operation of A-shares was different. In 28, the process of A-share bottoming was in the period of financial crisis

Before 28, under the leadership of the "Troika", our economy grew rapidly, which also brought about a rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves. With money, we were like a nouveau riche, like the fattest piece of meat.

in the face of the financial crisis in p>28, we have enough funds and policies to deal with it. Just like the rich people spend the winter, we have the confidence. Of course, we have to be severely chopped by Emperor M.

after the outbreak of the economic crisis, we successively introduced various policies to rescue the market. The policy bottom of the A-share Shanghai Composite Index appeared at 182 points, and then the market bottom appeared at 1664 points. The interval between "policy bottom and market bottom" was 1.5 months, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell by -8.2%.