Monday, June 28th Keywords: Opening, Federal Reserve Williams speaks.
Waiting for the EU to announce its summer economic forecast.
At 2 1: 00, the FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and new york Federal Reserve Chairman Williams appeared at the expert group discussion meeting of the Bank for International Settlements.
23:00 Speech by Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank.
There is a lack of market economic data in Europe, and it is expected that the market fluctuation will be very limited.
Tuesday, June 29th Keywords: Eurozone economic climate index, German CPI in June, American conference board consumer confidence.
2 1:00 202 1 FOMC Voting Committee and Richmond Fed President Baldin delivered a speech.
On June 5438+00, the European Central Bank decided to keep the dominant interest rate and bond purchase plan unchanged, and raised the economic growth and inflation expectations of the euro zone this year and next, but thought that the medium-term inflation outlook had not changed. On the same day, the European Central Bank raised the economic growth forecast of the euro zone next year from 4% predicted in March to 4.6%, and from 4. 1% to 4.7%. The European Central Bank also predicts that the inflation rate in the euro zone will be 1.9% and 1.5% this year and next, which are 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in March. The core inflation rate is 1. 1% and 1.3% respectively. According to the data of the European Central Bank, the inflation rate in the euro zone has increased in recent months, mainly due to low base utility, short-term factors and rising energy prices. It is expected that the inflation level will rise further in the second half of this year, and then decline with the temporary factors fading.
The reason why there is such a huge difference between the perceived inflation rate and the official inflation rate is that when calculating the former, economic experts give great weight to some goods and services according to the frequency of consumers' purchases. Among them, the fuel weight accounts for about 10%, which is almost three times that of the German Federal Statistical Office. One of the main reasons for the recent rapid rise in inflation rate is the soaring fuel price.
According to analysis, compared with the same month last year, the fuel price increased by 27% in May this year. At this time last year, due to the economic recession caused by the epidemic, oil prices once plummeted. Now, with the recovery of the global economy, oil prices have risen again. In addition, we ended the blockade period, the mobility of people increased again, and the frequency of refueling was higher. This means that people are also more sensitive to rising oil prices. A representative survey also shows that 66% of consumers believe that this round of inflation is related to oil prices.
The analysis also predicts that the prices of German goods and services will continue to rise in the coming months. Now that restaurants and hotels are reopening, shopkeepers may raise prices, especially because of the expected strong demand. This inference also applies to other industries.
The analysis pointed out that the U.S. economy is expected to show stronger growth, and the number of consumers who are expected to record a net decrease in unemployment rate has reached a record high. Although inflation expectations declined in early June, rising inflation is still the most concerned issue for consumers. The analysis pointed out that the sharp rise of consumer expectation index provided the impetus. With the improvement of economic prospects and the slowdown of inflation expectations, American consumer confidence increased more than expected in early June. In addition, with the lifting of travel restrictions, rising temperatures and weakening health concerns, consumers' mood is more optimistic.
Regarding the recent record high inflation in the United States, some market participants pointed out that this is not what the Federal Reserve called "temporary" inflation. Michelle meyer, chief economist of Bank of America, pointed out that with the continuous emergence of labor shortage and signs of inflation, the confidence of the Fed and the market is becoming less and less convincing, and the foundation for more sustained inflation in the future is being laid from now on.
Wednesday, June 30th Keywords: China official manufacturing PMI, UK first quarter GDP, German employment data, US ADP employment, Canadian GDP in April, US EIA inventory.
At present, China's national economy continues to improve. A survey shows that the economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2002 12.2%, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to reach 9.4%. According to the analysis, the economic growth rate in the second quarter increased year-on-year, and the base factor was low. Major economic indicators such as industry, investment and foreign trade are also improving, and the balance and endogenous kinetic energy of economic recovery tend to increase. By the middle of the year, many institutions had released economic forecast reports. The data shows that the average forecast value of GDP growth in the second quarter of this year by nearly 10 market research institutions is 8.6%, of which the maximum value is 12% and the minimum value is 7.6%.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently released the latest World Economic Outlook report, predicting that China's economy will grow by 8.5% this year, up 0.7 percentage point from the 7.8% predicted in March this year, far higher than the global economic growth expectation, highlighting the OECD's strong confidence in China's economic growth. According to the OECD, thanks to China's effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic, many industries have accelerated their opening to the outside world, and China will surpass the United States to become the largest foreign capital inflow country in the world in 2020. China's good economic development prospects and further opening-up posture and measures will help China continue to attract foreign capital inflows. In addition, China still has a lot of room for improvement in attracting foreign investment, and "stabilizing foreign investment" remains an important policy goal of the China government. In traditional industries and manufacturing industries, the introduction of foreign capital helps to upgrade technology and improve organizational management to improve efficiency.
According to the latest Global Economic Outlook released by the World Bank on June 8th, China's recovery has expanded from public investment to consumption. Because of the active export, the pent-up demand was released after the epidemic was effectively controlled. It is estimated that the growth rate of China will accelerate to 8.5% this year.
With regard to the British economy, the Bank of England pointed out in its latest report that with the lifting of COVID-19 epidemic restrictions, the British economy will achieve the fastest growth in more than 70 years in 20021year. The Bank of England announced that the extra expenditure of government anti-epidemic funds will help to increase employment opportunities, and the economy is expected to expand by 7.25% this year.
British economic professionals predict that with the reopening of busy commercial streets, paving the way for a small-scale consumption boom, the pace of economic recovery will accelerate. The rapid spread of vaccines in Britain has also boosted consumer confidence. The British Monetary Policy Committee recently stressed that it will continue to implement the low interest rate policy and will not raise interest rates until there is "clear evidence" that the economic recovery is sustainable.
About employment in Germany. After a long epidemic crisis, the German job market finally showed signs of recovery. Data show that in May this year, the unemployment rate in Germany fell to 5.9%, and the total number of unemployed people was 2.7 million, a decrease of 84,000 compared with April and a decrease of 6,543,800+0.26 million compared with the same period last year. Schiller, director of the German Federal Labor Office, said that this is the first sign of a comprehensive recovery in the labor market. Although the situation is slowly improving, the impact of the epidemic crisis is still far-reaching.
Due to the substantial increase in the fiscal expenditure of the Canadian government and the abundant cash savings of national households, investors bet that the peak interest rate will climb above the previous peak for the first time in decades in the next tightening cycle of the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada's key interest rate has peaked below its previous level. But this may change in the next cycle, because government spending around the world is hitting a record high, which makes the prospect of economic recovery from the epidemic more optimistic.
In order to stimulate the economy, the Canadian government will spend 10 1 billion yuan in three years, accounting for about 5% of GDP; US President Biden proposed a trillion-dollar infrastructure spending plan. A higher peak interest rate hike may give the Bank of Canada more power to cope with the next economic recession, or it may stimulate changes in the economic structure and promote savings and investment instead of borrowing.
The Bank of Canada has hinted that it may start raising interest rates from the historical low of 0.25% in the second half of next year, which is much earlier than the Fed's forecast of raising interest rates in 2023.
July Thursday 1 Keywords: China Caixin manufacturing PMI, French-German-British manufacturing PMI data, US initial jobless claims data, US ISM manufacturing PMI.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed on the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.
Canada has a day off on National Day.
The organization of petroleum exporting countries will hold a meeting with the ministerial supervisory Committee of non-OPEC oil producing countries.
At present, the performance of American manufacturing industry is gradually improving. Even so, manufacturers still try to obtain raw materials and recruit qualified workers, which greatly increases the prices of enterprises and consumers. The strong performance of the manufacturing industry supported economists' expectations of double-digit growth in the second quarter. As the COVID-19 epidemic kept Americans at home, the demand shifted from services to commodities. Demand is still strong due to vaccination and trillions of dollars in relief funds provided by the government to reopen the economy more widely.
According to the analysis, the US economy further achieved impressive growth in June. Although the output growth of manufacturing and service industries and the inflow of new orders have both peaked, this is largely due to capacity constraints rather than economic cooling, which limits the ability of enterprises to cope with demand. Although the price index has also dropped from the historical high point in May, it is obvious that the economy is still developing in full swing.
Friday, July 2nd Keywords: US non-farm payrolls report in June
During the European period, investors paid a little attention to the PPI in the euro zone in May, but before the release of important data, the market fluctuation was expected to be limited.
During the new york period, the market ushered in the most important economic data that affected the market trend this week-the US non-farm payrolls report in June. The quality of data will directly and greatly affect the market trend.
Although the American job market is recovering, the degree of recovery is still less than the market expectation. At this time a year ago, the number of employed people in the United States decreased sharply because the government kept forcing enterprises to close down to curb the epidemic. With the progress of vaccination and the sharp decline of cases, hospitalization rate and mortality rate, employment has been improving.
The analysis shows that the rapid tightening of the labor market may bring a medium-term problem to the financial market. Although the number of new jobs is increasing, the unemployment rate in the United States continues to rise and the employment rate is low. Many enterprises have also denounced the labor shortage on the grounds of child care, persistent concerns about the epidemic and the increase in unemployment benefits brought about by the government's stimulus plan. The labor shortage forced some companies to raise wages and offer more attractive bonuses, and prompted some state government officials to announce an early end to raising unemployment benefits.
The Fed recently raised its inflation expectations and advanced the rate hike schedule. At present, it is expected that there will be two interest rate hikes in 2023, because the inflation rate in the United States is at a high point in decades.
According to the analysis, at present, the Fed seems to adhere to this route quite resolutely, which is looser than ever before and maintains liquidity as much as possible, but the speed of withdrawing liquidity is very, very slow. According to the analysis, considering the existing valuation indicators, any factors that disturb the financial market, including the labor market, are the real problems faced by the financial market in the medium term.
In addition to the US non-farm payrolls report, investors should also pay attention to other US data, including US trade accounts, durable goods orders and factory orders.
July 3rd-July 4th Saturday and Sunday: No major news events.
This article comes from Huitong. com