Protecting and improving the comprehensive grain production capacity and ensuring the national food security are the important objectives of the macro-control of the grain circulation system reform. According to the unified arrangement of the the State Council Grain Circulation System Reform Program Working Group, the relevant comrades of the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Grain Administration, the the State Council Development Research Center and the State Planning Commission formed a special investigation team on "Stabilizing the Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity". On the basis of their existing work, they went to Hubei Province, a major grain-producing province, and Zhejiang Province, a major grain-selling province, to listen to special reports from departments of agriculture, grain, planning and agricultural development in provinces, cities and counties, and went deep into the countryside to listen to the opinions of township cadres. It also arranged seven provinces including Sichuan, Hebei and Jilin to conduct research and provide reports. The relevant information is hereby notified as follows:
I. Connotation and measurement index of comprehensive grain production capacity
The comprehensive grain production capacity refers to the grain output capacity which is formed by the comprehensive input of various production factors in a certain area under certain economic and technical conditions in a certain period of time and can stably reach a certain output. The comprehensive grain production capacity consists of two factors: input and output, which are determined by the input capacity of cultivated land, capital, labor force, science and technology, environment and other factors, and expressed by the total annual grain output. The quality and quantity of cultivated land, capital, labor force, science and technology, environment and other factors that can be put into grain production every year determine the quality and quantity of grain output, that is, the output capacity. If the grain production capacity is to be transformed into actual output, the comparative benefit of grain formed by national policies and the relationship between grain supply and demand plays a decisive role. The comprehensive grain production capacity includes four aspects: first, the ability to protect cultivated land. Mainly refers to how much quantity and quality cultivated land can maintain for food production. The second is the ability of policy support. Including the guarantee of policies and measures, the increase of investment and the effective protection of farmers' enthusiasm for production. The third is the ability of scientific and technological services. Including the current situation of agricultural scientific research level and technology extension system. The fourth is the ability to resist disasters. Including irrigation and drainage facilities, materials and equipment and grain seed reserves.
The measurement index of comprehensive grain production capacity: first, the cultivated land area and grain sowing area. The tenth five-year plan of the Ministry of Agriculture proposes to stabilize the grain production capacity. By 2005, the cultivated land area will be no less than 65.438+280 million hectares (65.438+920 million mu). Considering historical experience and practical needs, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the annual grain planting area will be stabilized at about 654.38+007 million hectares (654.38+060 million mu). The second is the grain output per unit area. It can comprehensively reflect the level of grain production and output. In 2000, China's grain output was 426 1 kg/ha (568 kg/mu), and the average yield per mu during the tenth five-year plan period should be higher than this level. The third is the level of disaster resistance. It can reflect the situation of grain production infrastructure and the stability of grain production. It can be expressed by the ratio of the difference between the affected area and the affected area. Since the reform and opening up, China's disaster resistance rate has been around 50%.
Second, the present situation of comprehensive grain production capacity in China
Since the reform and opening up, the state and farmers have continuously increased their investment in the material elements of grain production. The total amount of chemical fertilizer (calculated by active ingredient 100%) increased from 8.84 million tons in 1978 to 4 146 1 ton in 2000, and the effective irrigation area increased from 674 million mu in 1978 to 8.5 million mu in 2000. The planting area of improved varieties of major grain varieties accounts for 60-70% of the sown area. The national fiscal expenditure on agricultural capital construction increased from 1978 to 5 1 100 million yuan to 1999 to 357 billion yuan (the proportion of fiscal expenditure decreased from 4.6% to 2.67% in the same period). Due to the increase of investment and the improvement of production conditions, the comprehensive grain production capacity in China has been continuously improved. Although the area planted with grain decreased, the total output increased from 600 billion Jin in 1978 to 1996. In recent years, remarkable achievements have been made in the structural adjustment of agriculture and rural economy. At the same time, the state has taken a series of measures to stabilize grain production. However, since 1999, the grain output and area have been declining. From 1999 to 200 1, the sown area of grain in China decreased by 7.707 million hectares (1kloc-0/5610000 mu), with an annual decrease of 626,000 hectares (9.39 million mu) and 4.698 million hectares (. The total grain output decreased by 65.438+065.438+0.932 billion Jin, which were 7.82 billion Jin, 92.42 billion Jin and 65.438+0.908 billion Jin respectively.
The decline of grain area and output in recent years is caused by many factors:
First, the comparative benefit of growing grain declined, and farmers reduced the grain area independently. Since 1996, affected by the continuous decline in grain prices and the high prices of agricultural materials, machinery and labor, the actual price of grain sold by farmers is close to or even lower than the cost, and the benefits of growing grain have obviously decreased. According to the agricultural department of Hubei Province, the net income per mu of cost of grain crops in 2000 was 1%, and the average after-tax income per mu was 3.26 yuan (including 0.09 yuan for rice), which was less than that of citrus (7 12 yuan) and green tea (436 yuan). According to the calculation of relevant departments in jingshan county, Hubei Province, the net income per mu of rice planted at 200 1 is about 200 yuan, which is about lower than 1996 150 yuan, and about 300 yuan less than cash crops such as pears and vegetables. Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and other major grain producing areas and about 60% of pure farmers' per capita net income showed negative growth for two consecutive years.
Second, policies guide structural adjustment and reduce the area planted with grain. According to statistics, in 2000, the national grain area decreased by 3.33 million hectares (49.95 million mu) due to structural adjustment, accounting for 70% of the total reduction in grain sown area. In the past two years, the major grain-selling provinces have greatly reduced the grain planting area, and the major grain-producing provinces have also reduced the grain area. The sown area of grain crops in Deqing County, Zhejiang Province decreased from 553,500 mu in197 to 200 1 7.55 million mu per year, a decrease of 68.4%, in which the diversified management area of cultivated land was adjusted to 200 1 8.45 million mu. In 200 1 year, the grain planting area in Zhejiang Province was 28125,000 mu, which was 33% lower than that in 1997. This year, some provinces and autonomous regions began to cancel or partially cancel the protection price, and purchased some grain through subsidies from grain purchase and sale companies, but the subsidies were small. For example, this year, Hubei Province will subsidize 17 major grain-producing counties to buy 300 million Jin of high-quality grain at 6 cents per kilogram, while other counties and districts will not order subsidies, and these areas will reduce their grain planting accordingly.
Third, the implementation of returning farmland to forests, lakes and grasslands has reduced cultivated land and grain sowing. In the past two years, all parts of the country have been returning farmland to ecological construction, reducing part of the grain planting area. The grain planting area in Hubei Province has decreased from 76.995 million mu in 1980s to 60 million mu now, including 3.99 million mu of cultivated land (returning farmland to forest and grassland is 3 195 million mu, and returning farmland to lakes is about 795,000 mu). It is estimated that the grain sown area in China has decreased by about 6,543,800 hectares (6,543,800 mu) due to returning farmland. The implementation of this plan is conducive to the sustainable development of agriculture and the protection of the ecological environment. Fourth, the farmland infrastructure is aging, and the resilience of grain production is low, which reduces the grain production capacity due to disasters. Since the 1990s, the total investment in agricultural funds in the national budget has increased, but the proportion of investment has not increased. The state's investment in agriculture focuses on river management and ecological environment construction. The direct investment in farmland capital construction is obviously less, the agricultural infrastructure is lagging behind, the irrigation and drainage facilities in the field are outdated, and the agricultural disaster resistance is fragile. To a certain extent, it is still "watching the weather." During the period of 1990-2000, the average affected area in China was 8. 65.438 billion mu, the affected area is 390 million mu, accounting for 48% of the affected area, and the disaster resistance rate is only 52%, which is not significantly improved compared with the level in the 1980s, and it is not as good as the level of 654.38+0.978 (57%). The grain loss in 2000 was130 billion Jin, an increase of 60 billion Jin over the previous year. In recent years, the level of comprehensive grain production capacity has shown a downward trend. The annual grain planting area in China has been stable at1.1.1.300 million hectares (1.65-1.700 million mu) for many years, and has dropped to1.700 million mu. 200 1 year is1060000 hectares (1590000 mu), and it is expected to be1050000 hectares (1570000 mu) in 2002. The comprehensive grain production capacity has declined, and some factors are irreversible, so it is very expensive to recover. For example, in 2000, 23.49 million mu of cultivated land was occupied (including 2.445 million mu of construction land, 0.65438+0.445 million mu of ecological returning farmland, 8.67 million mu of agricultural structure adjustment and 930,000 mu of disaster damage), and 4.365 million mu of supplementary cultivated land (including 2.76 million mu of unused land development and 990,000 mu of wasteland reclamation and land consolidation). From the situation since 1999, if the grain production and circulation are completely market-oriented, and if the grain production can't get a reasonable profit, it will be difficult to protect the enthusiasm of farmers and farmers, and the various factors put into grain production will be reduced, and the maintenance and improvement of the comprehensive grain production capacity will be seriously challenged.
Third, the grain supply and demand trend forecast
(A) grain demand showed a rigid growth.
Due to the sustained population growth and the further development of grain transformation and deep processing in China, the grain demand will increase rigidly ahead of schedule. In recent years, academic circles and relevant departments have made many medium-and long-term predictions on the grain consumption demand in China. The current consensus is:
In 2005, the total grain demand was 1062 billion Jin, of which the direct consumption was 498.5 billion Jin, and the per capita direct consumption of raw grain was 369 Jin. The feed grain demand is 4 108 billion Jin, accounting for 38.7% of the grain demand; Plus industrial grain, grain growing and loss, the per capita demand is 786 kg.
2.20 15 year grain demand1167 billion Jin, of which 450.3 billion Jin was directly consumed, and the per capita direct consumption of raw grain was 3 12 Jin; The demand for feed grain is 554.5 billion Jin, accounting for 47.5% of the grain demand; Plus industrial grain, grain growing and loss, the per capita demand is 804 kg.
3. The grain demand in 2030 is1319.5 billion Jin, of which the direct consumption is 416 billion Jin, and the per capita direct consumption of raw grain is 260 Jin; The demand for feed grain is 724.4 billion Jin, accounting for 54.9% of the grain demand; The per capita demand for processing industry, growing grain and wasting grain is 824 Jin. In terms of varieties, the growth of grain consumption demand in China in the future will mainly come from the growth of feed grain. It is predicted that from now until 2030, the demand for rice will rise slightly, the demand for wheat will continue to rise, and the demand for corn will increase substantially. In 2005, the demand for corn accounted for 28.4% of the total grain; In 20 15, the demand rose rapidly to 31.9%; In 2030, demand will further rise to 35.2%.
(2) There is a big gap between grain production and demand in the future.
Judging from the above demand and the current grain production capacity of 1000 billion Jin, the gap between grain production and demand in China in 2005, 20 15 and 2030 is 62 billion Jin and 167 1095 billion Jin respectively. According to the minimum grain self-sufficiency rate of 95% (the net grain import is controlled within 5% of the total output), in order to achieve the basic balance between production and demand, it is necessary to increase the grain production capacity by about 654.38+0.8 billion Jin, 654.38+0.6 billion Jin and 254 billion Jin respectively, with the increase ranges of 654.38+0% and 654.38+0.6 billion Jin respectively. This is very difficult and stressful under the current level of investment and technology. Judging from the situation in recent ten years, the grain output in China has not increased much. Grain output 1990- 1994 is about 533kg/mu in five years, 1995-200 1 73kg/mu in seven years, 1990-200 1 mu. Under the condition that the cultivated land and the sown area of grain remain stable, to achieve the balance between grain production and demand, it is necessary to increase the output per unit area of grain accordingly.
(C) the main factors affecting the improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity
First, the comparative benefit of grain is low, and farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain has declined. At present, state resources are not effectively subsidized to farmers. Under the situation that grain circulation is completely liberalized, if there are no effective protection measures, the comparative interests of grain will not be solved, and farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain will further decline.
Second, cultivated land, water and other resources are tight. The shortage of cultivated land and water resources in China is an important factor that hinders the stability and improvement of grain production capacity. The existing cultivated land area in China is about 1.95 1 100 million mu, and the per capita cultivated land is only 1.59 mu, accounting for 42% of the world average of 3.75 mu. Even if the existing cultivated land is always stable, with the increase of population, by 20 10 and 2030, the per capita cultivated land will be reduced to 1.43 mu and 1.34 mu. There is also a serious shortage of agricultural water. At present, China's per capita water resources are 2220 cubic meters, which is about 25% of the world average. It is predicted that by 2030, when the population reaches1600 million, the per capita water resources will drop to 1760 cubic meters, which is close to the internationally recognized warning line of severe water shortage 1700 cubic meters without decreasing precipitation.
Third, the agricultural infrastructure is weak and the ability to resist disasters is not strong. The effective irrigation area of cultivated land in China is small, and the proportion of arid and semi-arid areas is large. Paddy fields and irrigated land with irrigation facilities account for 79 1 10,000 mu of cultivated land in China, accounting for only 39% of the total cultivated land area. 40% of the cultivated land in China is degraded, and about 30% of the cultivated land is endangered by different degrees of soil erosion. Every year, it suffers from natural disasters such as drought, flood, low temperature and chilling injury, typhoon, first frost and freezing injury to varying degrees, which causes great losses to grain production.
Fourth, the reserve of science and technology is insufficient, and the agricultural technology extension system is not perfect. It is difficult to carry out scientific research and popularization of agricultural production, especially grain production, due to problems such as poor system, disconnection between science and technology and production, disconnection between scientific research and popularization, insufficient funds, overlapping institutions, scattered strength and brain drain. The shortage of scientific and technological reserves in grain production, the instability of technology extension team, and the slow update and promotion of new technologies, new varieties and new models in grain production directly restrict the improvement of scientific and technological level in grain production.
Fifth, the environmental pollution of basic farmland has intensified, and the sustainable production capacity of cultivated land has declined. Due to the pollution of industrial and urban "three wastes" to basic farmland, the quality of cultivated land is declining, which directly affects the grain yield and quality. In China, 6.5438+million hectares (6.5438+0.5 million mu) of farmland are polluted to varying degrees, and the farmland irrigated by sewage accounts for 7.3% of the total irrigation area, and it is on the rise. There are thousands of agricultural environmental pollution accidents every year, resulting in direct economic losses of hundreds of millions of yuan. It is difficult to estimate the direct impact of soil fertility decline and environmental pollution on comprehensive grain production capacity.
Fourthly, based on the national conditions with a large population and a small population, it is suggested that effective measures should be taken from a long-term strategic height to effectively protect and improve the comprehensive grain production capacity, and organically combine stored grain with local stored grain to ensure China's grain security.
(1) Protecting cultivated land and water resources according to law and ensuring the sustainable development of food and agriculture.
The investigation found that in some places, due to the division of departments, the basic farmland protection planning, land use planning and urban construction planning are out of touch with each other, resulting in the destruction of grain fields and the indiscriminate occupation of cultivated land. As the basic means of production for producing cultivated land and water-saturated grain, it is necessary to establish the concept that protecting cultivated land and water resources is to protect the comprehensive production capacity of grain, establish and improve the legal system for the protection of cultivated land and other agricultural resources, strictly protect cultivated land, especially basic farmland and water resources, maintain the dynamic balance of cultivated land quantity, control environmental pollution, and continuously improve the quality of cultivated land and the utilization rate of water resources in accordance with the Land Law, the Regulations on the Protection of Basic Farmland and the Regulations on the Protection of Water Resources. It is necessary to effectively protect farmers' collective land ownership and land use rights, reduce the low-price expropriation and high-price transfer of cultivated land by the state, and avoid harming farmers' interests.
(2) Implementing agricultural subsidies to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.
For a long time after China's entry into WTO, due to the high cost, poor quality and weak international competitiveness of China's grain products, the gradual increase of grain imports will inevitably impact the domestic grain market, dampen farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and affect the stability and improvement of grain production capacity. Therefore, within the framework of WTO rules, we should make use of government subsidies to make up for the defects of complete market regulation, adjust the use direction of grain risk funds, implement direct subsidies to agriculture and farmers, increase farmers' income and protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.
(3) Strengthening scientific research and technology popularization.
In recent years, the basic research and applied research of food crops are weak, and there is a serious shortage of scientific and technological reserves. Germplasm resources innovation and variety breeding are relatively lagging behind, with few high-quality varieties and incomplete special varieties. New varieties, new technologies and new instruments urgently needed by farmers are still lacking. It is necessary to establish the idea that reserving science and technology means reserving production capacity, increase investment in science and technology of grain crops, concentrate funds and talents, vigorously carry out research on new varieties, technologies and equipment of grain crops, and strive for a breakthrough in the short term. Establish a subsidy system for the promotion of improved varieties and new technologies, strengthen technology promotion, ensure the continuous improvement of grain output and product quality, reduce production costs and improve the competitiveness of the grain market.
(4) To strengthen the infrastructure construction of grain production and improve the level of grain production, we should make full use of the relevant WTO rules, especially the "green box" policy of domestic support and protection, learn from international experience, increase input in grain production, strengthen the construction of basic farmland and socialized service system, improve the disaster resistance and land productivity, and directly protect and improve the comprehensive grain production capacity. We will choose to build 500 high-quality commodity grain base counties in major grain producing areas, strengthen the construction of farmland irrigation and drainage system, agricultural technology extension service system, information service system, agricultural machinery service system and agricultural ecological environment and agricultural product quality supervision system, form an annual production capacity of 500-600 billion Jin of grain in these base counties, and ensure the provision of 200-280 billion Jin of commodity grain every year.
(five) the establishment of a national grain early warning system, timely regulation of the grain market.
With the full liberalization of the grain market, in order to prevent the sharp fluctuation of the grain market and price, the state should establish a grain early warning system, determine the grain warning line and monitor various indicators. At the same time, legislation should be made on grain early warning to ensure that early warning can be issued in time when there are problems in grain supply, and governments at all levels are required to take emergency measures to develop grain production and ensure grain supply.
(six) focus on supporting the main grain producing areas.
There are many places that need to be built to stabilize and improve grain production capacity, and the key points of construction should be concentrated in grain-producing areas, especially the main grain-producing areas in the central region. Through centralized construction, we will gradually establish and improve the infrastructure and technical system of the main grain producing areas in China, significantly improve the grain production capacity, and truly become a stable grain production base in the country.