Historically, from 2003 to 2008, driven by investment, the liquor industry grew rapidly;

From 2009 to 20 10, a series of policies were introduced, which greatly boosted real estate, infrastructure and liquidity, and liquor entered a high boom;

20 1 1-20 12, real estate and infrastructure are going down, and liquidity plays a significant role in supporting the industry;

20 13-20 14, liquor entered the adjustment period, and infrastructure and liquidity played a supporting role;

20 15-20 17: the monetization of shed reform was accelerated, and the liquidity helped liquor to return to high prosperity;

20 18-20 19, tight liquidity and poor infrastructure are the main reasons for the slowdown in liquor growth.

Therefore, we can see that the boom cycle of liquor has a strong correlation with infrastructure real estate.

Then, in the next "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the new infrastructure is expected to further enhance the strength of infrastructure.

According to the agency's calculation, it is predicted that the investment in "new infrastructure" in 20 years will at least bring about 4-5 billion yuan of commercial and government consumption income for high-end liquor /6 1-8 1 100 million yuan of total income from the second half of 20 years to the first half of 2 1 year. Overall, the "new infrastructure" will promote the further development of high-end liquor, and sub-high-end liquor and regional liquor are also expected to benefit from the "new infrastructure".

Two. Liquor industry, especially high-end liquor industry, has the possibility of continuous operation. Under the condition of continuous operation, the value and certainty of discounted cash flow valuation are relatively strong.

Because enterprises like Maotai will not disappear in a long, long historical period.

Unlike some technology companies, some backward technology companies will disappear after the rapid development of technology, just like those who used to sell tapes. With the development of MP3, the market will shrink, and with the development of digital music, the MP3 and tape industries will basically disappear.

On the other hand, liquor is an industry with a long history in Mika. The older you get, the longer it takes. Its memory of taste buds is completely different from its occupation of consumers' minds. Therefore, the sustainable management of the liquor industry adds a lot of points to it, which is also the reason why the liquor sector is far stronger than some science and technology sectors in the long run.

Three. In the future, domestic incremental funds and styles will tend to be more institutionalized, and most institutions are aesthetically consistent. For the liquor sector, it will also be regarded as one of the first sectors and targets of long-term investment, because no one wants to be left behind by history under long-term certainty, especially in the case that the current performance appraisal may be more and more inclined to the future long-term performance appraisal, the allocation demand of liquor sector is definitely incremental.