A-shares may fall and adjust in 2021, but if they still want to fall below 2,000 points, it is simply unlikely to happen.

We must also welcome a magnificent bull market. China's securities market has been in the doldrums for many years, and it is time for it to truly rise.

Our country's economy continues to improve, especially in 2020, when the GDP of all major economies in the world is declining. Only our country is expected to still grow by 2.3%.

Looking forward to 2021, my country's GDP is expected to grow by 8%, ranking first among all major economies.

The economy is constantly developing for the better, so the securities market, which represents the economic barometer, should also continue to rise. This is the most normal phenomenon.

So generally speaking, my country's A-shares have great potential in 2021.

Especially after the beautiful country changes its president, overall, the economic and trade relations with our country will be greatly improved.

The bilateral trade situation has been eased to a certain extent, which is of great benefit to my country's economic development.

Especially in terms of high-tech products and technical cooperation that are in short supply in our country, it will relieve a lot of worries and our country will get some relatively broad development opportunities.

At present, our country is implementing a dual-circulation development strategy, fully opening up to the world's economy, trade and investment, and at the same time, it is also fully engaged in trade, investment, and technology advancement in the world.

This spirit of great development will lead our country to truly transform from a manufacturing power into a global economic power, and to a certain extent, it will be worthy of our economic status as the second largest country in the global economy.

Then the overall securities market will also change from domestic A-shares to an international A-share market. Think about it, does the securities market have a broad prospect?

!

If we grasp the pace of the listing of new stocks, we will also impose fast-paced suppression and penalties on securities violations.

In fact, there is no shortage of new funds in my country's capital market, and many public funds still have strong fundraising capabilities.

Looking at some recent public funds that can add hundreds of billions a day, you can see that there is still a lot of hot capital in society.

If the securities market is successfully introduced and the establishment of institutional investors is increased, free inflow and outflow of international investment funds will be allowed.

Then the foundation for the development of the securities market will indeed be solid, and it will be able to welcome a relatively long-term rising market.

With the help of what Li Lu (China Buffett) said in his new book "Value Investing and China": Today's China has passed the Lewis turning point and entered a golden period of mature economic development, with wage levels, consumption levels, savings and investment levels

, have all entered a spiral growth of catching up with each other, providing a good environment for the creation of a middle-class consumer society.

China's culture and national policies make it possible to avoid the middle-income trap and enter the ranks of highly developed countries.

So on this basis, the securities market will definitely usher in great development.

However, we must be soberly aware that after the registration reform and the promulgation of the new delisting system, the risks of individual stocks are actually increasing.

Therefore, investors must have the correct investment philosophy.

Don't end up with the index rising and losing your investment.

If you are still unable to master independent investment in listed companies, it may be safer to buy various index funds.

Finally, investment is risky. If there is no concept of value investment, the risk of investment will be greater, and you need to be more cautious when investing in the securities market.

When the stock market rises sharply, it will fall sharply. As for when the sharp fall will begin in 2021, only the gods know.

If you ask whether it can fall below 2,000 points, it should be said that the chance is zero. If you ask whether it can fall below 3,000 points, there may be a slight possibility, which will be another historically great opportunity to enter the market.

A bull market crash is an opportunity to enter the market.

The big drop in 2021 must be a correction after a new high. The bull market is to continuously reach new highs, make corrections through sharp declines, and continue to attract OTC funds into the market.

2021 is a critical year for the implementation of the comprehensive registration system. The stock market has started the largest slow bull market in history, the pace of asset securitization has further accelerated, the window for funds from various channels to enter the stock market has been opened, and the market has been walking on the road of a bull market.

On the market, slow bull is the main tone. Once the rise deviates from the track of slow bull, regulatory control will come as scheduled, and a sharp correction in the stock market is inevitable.

The short-term is unpredictable. Don't say when the big drop will begin in 2021. Even during the "Great Bull Market" in 2007 and the "Leveraged Bull" in 2015, there were big short-term drops.

And can it fall below 2,000 points in 2021?

The author’s answer is: It is impossible to fall below!

Or to be more rational and objective: 99.99% will not happen.

Maybe after seeing the author's answer, many friends will think that the author is relying on bullies. After all, everything can happen, and A-shares are not "iron barrels" and have once fallen below 2,000 points.

From an objective point of view, it is indeed possible. After all, things are unpredictable and no one knows what will happen in the future.

However, if you want to think rationally, the probability of falling below 2,000 points in 2021 is so low that it can even be ignored.

1. Think from the perspective of valuation.

Currently, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index has 3,570 points, and the calculated valuation is about 17 times. Measured by the historical quantile, the valuation of 17 times is around the 42% historical position.