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How to scientifically apply fiscal and monetary policies to macro-control the new normal of economy
First, the macro-control pattern that adapts to the new normal is taking shape.

Over the past two years, the CPC Central Committee has fully understood and actively adapted to the new normal of economic development, innovated the ideas and methods of macro-control, organically combined steady growth, structural adjustment, reform promotion and people's livelihood, and actively promoted the steady and rapid development of the national economy while maintaining its strength. The main characteristics of macro-control under the new normal are: defining the basic scope of government regulation, deepening reform and opening up, promoting structural adjustment, stimulating innovation vitality, and enhancing the internal motivation of stable economic development.

Implement interval control and directional control to maintain stable economic operation. The central government determines the reasonable range of economic operation, with steady growth and employment as the lower limit and preventing inflation as the upper limit. As long as the economic operation does not slip out of the reasonable range, we will maintain the basic stability of macro policies, pay attention to directional regulation, and solve the outstanding problems in economic operation in a targeted manner. Under the idea of interval control, China adhered to a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, implemented structural tax reduction, universal fee reduction, targeted refinancing, targeted interest rate reduction and RRR reduction, increased support for the real economy such as agriculture, rural areas and farmers, small and micro enterprises and the central and western regions, and promoted coordinated and rapid economic development. In 20 14, the GDP growth rate of China was 7.4%, with a quarterly fluctuation of only 0.2 percentage points. Urban employment increased by130,000, and the consumer price index increased by 2%, which better achieved the expected goal of economic development.

Continuously deepen reform and opening up and enhance the vitality and motivation of economic development. Taking decentralization as a breakthrough, we will promote reform and opening up in key areas and expand the scope and role of market allocation of resources. Focusing on the fields of investment, production and operation, the administrative examination and approval items were successively decentralized, and the catalogue of examination and approval of government investment projects was revised, greatly reducing the scope of examination and approval. The reform of the commercial system, in which the registered capital is paid in first and then certified, has changed to the subscription system, forming a new upsurge of entrepreneurial employment. On this basis, fiscal, taxation, finance, investment and price reforms were promoted in a focused and step-by-step manner, investment and financing mechanisms were innovated, and cooperation between the government and social capital (PPP) was promoted, which stimulated the enthusiasm of private investment. At the same time, by opening wider to the outside world and deepening reform, we will actively promote the pilot of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone, explore the management mode of national treatment plus negative list before entry, form a number of institutional innovations that can be replicated and promoted, and carry out new pilots in Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian. Opening up and reform promote each other, effectively enhancing the vitality of market players and enhancing the driving force of economic development.

Intensify structural adjustment and promote economic upgrading, efficiency improvement and upgrading. It mainly includes: promoting agricultural modernization, further stabilizing agricultural development, increasing grain output and increasing farmers' income; Innovate fiscal and taxation policies and measures, promote the development of e-commerce, tourism, pension, health, culture, sports and other service industries, and expand the consumption field of residents; Accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and mobile internet, release the development potential of emerging industries and formats, and cultivate and expand new growth points; Accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, strictly control new industrial production capacity, focus on resolving the contradiction of overcapacity, strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction, and strive to alleviate the pressure on resources and environment; Efforts will be made to promote the implementation of strategies such as the construction of the "Belt and Road", the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, promote coordinated regional development, and create new economic growth poles. These measures combine short-term macro-control with medium-and long-term development, effectively promote the improvement of the quality and efficiency of economic growth, and achieve stable economic development under the new normal.

Second, fully understand the importance of steady growth under the new normal.

After the economic development enters the new normal, the biggest risk is that the economy stalls, leading to violent fluctuations in employment, finance and finance. At present, there is a great downward pressure on China's economic growth, which is caused by both changes in development stages and short-term factors. Steady growth has become the key and foundation of macro-control under the new normal.

This is the need to deal with cyclical shocks. According to the research, the potential growth rate of China's economy is still 7%-8%, but if the cyclical factors are ignored, the annual growth rate may be lowered by 1-2 percentage points. The main reasons are: the cyclical influence of the international economy continues, the recovery of the world economy is slow and fluctuating at a low level, and the growth of international trade continues to be lower than the process of economic recovery, which restricts China's foreign demand and export; The domestic real estate market has entered a cyclical adjustment, which has brought great impact on the development of investment, consumption and related industries; In particular, the synchronization of manufacturing adjustment, local economic transformation and environmental pollution control will have a negative impact on China's economy. In this case, taking control measures to hedge the influence of cyclical factors will be beneficial to economic and social stability in the short term and will not deviate from the potential growth trend in the long term.

This is the need to stabilize market expectations. When there is a downward trend in economic growth, pessimistic expectations may increase the downward trend and make the economy slip out of the normal operation track. The main problem is that pessimistic expectations will affect the willingness of enterprises to invest, make investors enter a state of shrinking and waiting to see, and have a chain reaction in the market. Government regulation is conducive to stabilizing and guiding expectations and enhancing investor confidence. Especially under the current economic system, local governments play a strong role in economic development, and private investment is highly correlated with government behavior. Whether we can stabilize expectations and guide market investment has a great impact on economic growth, which cannot be underestimated or ignored.

This is the need to keep employment stable. At present, China's economic growth rate is declining, but the employment problem is still not prominent, and new jobs are still increasing. The main reasons are: the proportion of service industry has increased in recent years, which has increased the employment density of industrial operation and growth; At the same time, there are also factors that state-owned enterprises maintain social stability. Many state-owned industrial enterprises reduce production without reducing staff, and the phenomenon of redundant staff within enterprises is more common. Even so, it is difficult for many college students and graduate students to find suitable jobs every year. If the decline in economic growth rate increases, employment conflicts may break out in a concentrated way. Only by improving macro-control and making the economy run in a reasonable range can we maintain the relative stability of social employment.

This is the need to guard against debt and financial risks. The decline of economic growth rate, on the one hand, reduces the operating efficiency of enterprises, increases the debt ratio and increases the number of loss-making enterprises; On the other hand, slowing down the growth of government revenue, the contradiction between revenue and expenditure appears, and the debt burden of local governments increases. The deep adjustment of the real estate market has further increased the pressure on the above two aspects and increased the debt risk of overcapacity industries and local governments. When the economic downturn exceeds a certain critical point, some industrial enterprises and local governments may default on their debts and even trigger systemic regional financial risks, which will have a great impact on economic and social stability. From this perspective, maintaining economic growth in a reasonable range is an important basis for preventing debt risks and ensuring financial security.

This is to create a good environment for restructuring and promoting reform. In the long run, the slowdown in economic growth is conducive to promoting market competition, forcing enterprises to speed up the adjustment of structure and change the development mode. However, in the short term, if the growth rate drops too much and slips out of the reasonable range, the incidents of "fire" and "rain leakage" in all aspects will increase greatly, and enterprises and governments will spend a lot of energy on "fire fighting" and "leakage prevention", even normal life will become a problem. How do they adjust the structure and transfer mode? At the same time, promoting reform will inevitably face many new obstacles and difficulties, and unstable and uncertain factors will increase obviously, which also needs certain economic growth support. Therefore, promoting moderate economic growth and orderly operation is a necessary condition for effectively promoting structural adjustment and mode transformation, and it is also the basic environment for comprehensively deepening reform.

Third, focus on innovating the ideas and methods of macro-control.

At present and in the future, we should focus on the main characteristics of the new normal of economic development, aim at the new problems and contradictions in the new period, adhere to the general tone of the work of striving for progress while maintaining stability, focus on innovating the ideas and methods of macro-control, better combine solving short-term contradictions with solving medium-and long-term problems, seize new development opportunities in meeting challenges, and promote economic stability and long-term stability.

Adhere to the new normal of the economy and set the expected growth target. Under the new normal, the difficulty of macro-control lies in how to determine a growth target that takes into account all aspects, so as to adapt it to employment, inflation, balance of payments and other goals. This expected growth target, including annual target and five-year plan target, should not only conform to the changing trend of development stage, but also be conducive to the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of growth momentum; It should also reflect the countercyclical characteristics, which is conducive to stabilizing and guiding market expectations. At present, an important aspect of innovative macro-control thinking is to scientifically determine and adjust the expected growth target in a timely manner, and strengthen the guiding role of the expected target to the market micro-subjects and local government behaviors.

Adhere to the implementation of macro policies with a reasonable economic operation range as the goal. Under the new normal, the macro-policy should aim at the coexistence of surplus and shortage in economic operation, combine solving the total contradiction with solving structural problems, expand market space by improving structural problems such as industry, urban and rural areas, and regions, enhance the guiding and driving role of supply in demand, and achieve the effect of adjusting structure and promoting steady growth. Fiscal policy should maintain a positive and effective orientation, expand investment in weak links while promoting structural tax reduction, increase investment in transportation, water conservancy, energy, ecological environment protection and social undertakings, especially accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as railways in the central and western regions, and strengthen the driving role of government investment in social investment. Monetary policy should maintain a stable and flexible orientation, release positive and effective signals, change market deflation expectations, and reverse the trend of demand contraction. Flexible use of quantitative and price policy tools, do a good job of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, promote the steady growth of credit and social financing scale, alleviate the contradiction between financing difficulty and expensive financing, and support the transformation and development of the real economy. At the same time, strengthen financial supervision and focus on preventing and resolving systemic and regional risks.

Insist on deepening reform and enhance the vitality and motivation of development. Promote the combination of decentralization and decentralization, so that the reform under the new normal can better serve development. First, enliven private investment. Deepen domestic and foreign investment opening-up measures, comprehensively improve the social investment environment, set off a wave of mass entrepreneurship and innovation, and stimulate the endogenous power of the economy. The second is to invigorate the financial mechanism. Promote the healthy development of the capital market, expand direct financing such as bonds and stocks, increase the proportion of private equity funds and industrial funds, and inject new vitality into the real economy. The third is to invigorate the relationship between urban and rural areas. We will promote the reform of the household registration system and land system, take various measures to solve the problem of construction funds, accelerate the new urbanization based on people, and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. Fourth, enliven the state-owned economy. Deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, accelerate the transformation of state-owned assets management into capital management, develop state-owned capital operation companies and investment companies, promote the development of mixed ownership economy, and enhance the vitality and efficiency of state-owned economy.

Persist in promoting the optimization of economic structure and the transformation of growth momentum. Maintain a good balance between steady growth and structural adjustment, and accelerate the transformation of growth momentum. Actively and effectively promote structural adjustment, expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, on the basis of stabilizing external demand, maintain a moderate investment scale and growth rate, and promote a steady increase in long-term consumption rate; Promote the development of industry and service industry on the basis of stabilizing agriculture, so as to maintain the stable growth of industry at medium and high speed, promote the coordinated operation of industry and service industry, and continuously increase the proportion of service industry. With the goal of accelerating the transformation of growth momentum, we will promote enterprise system innovation, technological innovation, management innovation and market innovation, vigorously develop high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries and various emerging formats, use advanced and applicable technologies to transform and upgrade traditional industries, promote high-end technology application, high-end industrial expansion and high-end economic development, and accelerate the process of economic growth from factor-driven to innovation-driven