The probability of Cathay’s commodities rising in the future is relatively high for the following reasons.

1. Macroeconomic background: Commodities are currently at a new starting point for the bear market that will last 10 years after 2011. Taking into account the similarities and differences in the macroeconomic background, this round of price increases will last for at least 1.5 years.

2. Model prediction. Guotai Junan predicts that according to the ARDL-ECM model it established, if the global economy recovers strongly, the overall price increase of commodities may reach 20% throughout the year.

3. Market performance: commodity prices may rise at the beginning of 2021 to a certain extent, but there is still room for growth throughout the year.