I believe that Ms. Gao, who has invested in real estate for many years and thus gained excess returns, began to fall into anxiety. The investment formula of previous years seems to be "invalid". In this rising period of real estate, the price of second-hand houses in Beijing has been falling for eight consecutive months.

Ms. Gao, who owns six properties under her name, doesn't know whether the house in her hand is going or staying. If you sell it, the price is difficult to meet your psychological expectations; Not for sale, the monthly supply of nearly 100 thousand makes it feel pressure.

Lin li (pseudonym) who has been immersed in the financial industry for many years is as confused as Ms. Gao. He has always benefited from putting assets in financial products, and now he is worried that he can't find effective channels to preserve and increase the value of wealth. "A small number of private equity funds, plus bank wealth management, debt funds and insurance, are there any better suggestions?" When talking about asset allocation, Li Lin introduced his own situation and then threw the question to the reporter.

There seems to be no more chaotic period than now. Under the control policy of "housing and not speculation", the unilateral rise in house prices has been suppressed to a halt, and people are looking forward to the moment when the "new economy" takes over in the transformation of economic kinetic energy; Although many financial institutions talk about investment income in their performance reports, the market is still struggling to climb below 3000 points, and investors stand at the door of the stock market to see if there is an opportunity.

Outside the housing market and the stock market, funds, bonds, wealth management products and even precious metal products, after experiencing wave after wave, do not seem to attract people's long-term attention.

As a graduate majoring in finance, Li Lin's classmates are all over the banking, securities, funds and other financial industries, and most of them took up management positions in their forties. As an executive of a financial enterprise, Li Lin bluntly said that he was a conservative.

Just two years ago, Li Lin felt that they had a "wild path" in investment and were courageous, so the wealth effect they obtained was also considerable. Outside the car brand and the size of the house, the most obvious difference is that their children go to public schools, while many of their classmates' children study in international schools.

But at present, Li Lin began to be glad that he was not so anxious at that time, because of the overlap of bulls and bears crossing the stock market, the short-term fanaticism of the New Third Board and the cold winter of P2P. A classmate who works in a securities company once enthusiastically entered the market in the hot equity investment of the New Third Board and P2P bull market, but now he has failed. "Where did the money go?" This problem makes the middle class with some idle funds confused and even at a loss. But people seem to have to find a way out for the money in their pockets. With the curtain of low interest rates opened, how can wealth run in the torrent of time and inflation?

Enter the era of low interest rates

From 20 18 to 20 19, "weak cycle" and "economic downturn" have always been the key words of the macro environment. 20 19 trade friction and instability of external environment bring uncertainty to investors.

Lin li, who likes to talk about current events and environment with classmates and colleagues, is deeply impressed by several changes:

On August 1 day (Beijing time), 2065438, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve suddenly announced that it would cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, reaching 2.0% to 2.25%, and said that it would end the on-balance-sheet contraction in early August. On the same day, Brazil's central bank announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, followed by other countries.

On September 19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, and before that, the European Central Bank also offered a combination of "interest rate reduction +QE".

RMB exchange rate exceeded 7. After the reform of LPR (quoted interest rate formation mechanism in loan market), 1 September 5, the central bank announced that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point, and at the same time cut the deposit reserve ratio of relevant city commercial banks by1percentage point, releasing a total of about 90,000 yuan.

Li Lin said that after the Fed cut interest rates, he had discussed with his classmates whether this meant the beginning of a new cycle of interest rate cuts. However, judging from the differences among Fed officials on whether further easing is necessary, he can't reach a consistent conclusion, but in any case, a relaxed environment is conducive to beneficial changes in asset prices.

It cannot be ignored that there are still many uncertainties. Strategic analysts said that the loose attitude of monetary policy is confirmed at present, but the overall pace is still cautious and restrained, and the game between the two is intensified while the risk-free interest rate fluctuates; On the other hand, the outbreak of global uncertainty events, the tightening of the global trade environment and the Saudi incident have aggravated the market's expectation of uncertainty.

20 18 Due to the continuous interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, various domestic and international markets are under great pressure, and risky assets have fallen sharply, while cash assets (such as dollars and gold) and fixed-income assets have performed better. After entering 20 19, the market changes with the change of environment: the global stock market, which fell sharply last year, rebounded comprehensively; The global fixed income market continued to improve steadily; The precious metal market began to shine, gold strengthened again, and palladium hit a record high; Commodity markets are divided, and crude oil prices are among the top gainers.

In the process of capital returning from risky assets to fixed income and cash assets, many stories have happened around Li Lin.

Meng Fan (pseudonym), a classmate of lin li, used to work in the OTC marketing department of a medium-sized brokerage firm. This year, he realized the switch from investment banking to private placement, which was more or less helpless and unexpected.

According to Li Lin, apart from many work and industry groups, there are two other groups that are particularly active in Meng Fan, and Meng Fan is the administrator of one of them. This group was founded on 20 17, and the group friends got together because they bought a new third board private placement product. This product expired on 20 18 and has not been withdrawn yet.

Meng Fan bought 500,000 yuan because he was familiar with the underwriters of the sales fund, but in terms of market value, there was not much left. This is part of the year-end bonus for several companies sponsored by the Meng Fan team after their successful listing. At that time, the market was enthusiastic and Meng Fan was full of confidence, and even recommended some projects to his relatives and friends. And the reason why he does management is also this reason-he is familiar with the enterprise team and has other friends to invest together. Meng Fan wanted to communicate with both parties and find a relatively neutral exit method, but he didn't get an ideal solution.

Li Lin said that with the fluctuation or big change of risky assets, reliable value-added channels are getting narrower and narrower. However, after two investment failures, Meng Fan began to focus on bank financing, which Li Lin summarized as a return to "rationality". However, it should not be ignored that with the continuous downward trend of risk-free interest rates, bank wealth management has gradually bid farewell to just exchange and guaranteed bottom, and income fluctuations have intensified. Compared with before, the bank's financial yield is declining. As of August 20 19, after excluding structured deposit products, the expected yield of bank wealth management products has been declining for 18 months. In August, the average expected rate of return on bank wealth management was 4.04%, and baby funds such as Yu 'ebao even fell to the "2" era.

For friends of Li Lin's age, although some people have millions or more investable assets, some people invest in Thunder or encounter P2P running, and their assets have shrunk dramatically.

What makes Li Lin more anxious is that there is no effective channel to preserve and increase value, and the middle class has insufficient confidence in the income and contribution of future families. Children's education, medical care and old-age care can't be said.

The Private Wealth Report jointly issued by China Merchants Bank and Bain Company shows that at the end of 20 18, the total scale of investable assets held by individuals in China has reached 190 trillion yuan. Among them, the number of high-net-worth people who can invest and produce more than 6.5438+million and the total amount of investable production have reached 654.38+097 and 665.438+0 trillion RMB respectively.

When 190 trillion investable assets encounter an environment with abundant liquidity and low interest rates, how should the middle class with idle funds find the place to go for wealth?

Where can money go?

Ms. Gao's distress continues. The house that has been hung for several months has not been sold, and there are many people looking at it, but the buyer's bid is lower than his expectation. Although the purchase cost of the diaojiao building is less than 3 million, considering the increase in recent years, Ms. Gao is unwilling to reduce the price by 500,000 or even 6,543.8+0,000 on the basis of the price tag of 8 million.

To sell or not to sell, Ms. Gao is very entangled. Both husband and wife are Beijing natives, because both parents are optimistic about the real estate industry and very supportive of their investment. After a few shots, Ms. Gao has six suites with a monthly payment of nearly 100,000. Although it is not a high-paying job, the combined efforts of six "wallets" and rental income can also be borne. However, recently, under the policy requirement of "no speculation in housing", Beijing housing prices have shown a steady and declining trend. When the price of second-hand housing fell for 8 months, Ms. Gao became more and more anxious.

If house prices do not rise, the capital gains of buyers or homeowners may be negative due to low rental income and high cost of capital. As children and parents get older, Ms. Gao and her husband will face more and more pressure.

In the eyes of Ms. Gao's colleagues, her troubles are slightly "sweet". Although my colleague already has a house in Fengtai District, the child is old enough to go to primary school and wants to change school districts. But the current situation is that his idle funds are not enough, and the current house is very slow, so it is difficult to start with the school district.

China Family Wealth Survey Report (20 18) shows that the net value of house property is the most important part of family wealth in China, accounting for 66.4% in 20 17. Someone has done this calculation. In the past ten years, if you invest in commodities, you can only get 30% cumulative return, 5 1% return on bonds, 57% return on stocks and 265% return on real estate.

After the reform of LPR (loan market quotation), the monetary policy basically formed a structural loose pattern of collecting water from the real estate sector and releasing water from the non-real estate sector. Unilateral rise is no longer expected, which may mean that financial resources and resident assets may be redistributed.

In Li Lin's view, in the medium and long term, economic transformation and downward interest rates are conducive to the rise of financial asset prices, and the great era of financial asset allocation is coming.

Where are the opportunities?

The stock market seems to be the first exit you see. Hui Liang, general manager of Xiangju Capital, told the Economic Observer that in a low interest rate environment, high-yield products are more popular, while real estate has limited room for appreciation in the next decade, and the secondary market is the best export.

Ping An Securities' strategy team mentioned in the asset allocation report in the fourth quarter that the A-share market and bond market will benefit from the opening of domestic easing cycle in the fourth quarter, but the monetary policy stance is still relatively restrained and affected by higher inflation. Therefore, although the downward trend of risk-free interest rates is confirmed, the volatility has increased and the space is limited.

Since the beginning of the year, the science and technology innovation board has been the main line of the capital market. The market opened stably in science and technology innovation board in June, and the Growth Enterprise Market performed well in the third quarter, which means that the market has high expectations for capital market reform. In addition, since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been continuously flowing in, and the capital market has brought positive signals to the market in opening up and attracting long-term funds.

Hui Liang is more optimistic about next year's opportunities. "At present, the macro economy is in the bottom range, and there is a possibility of marginal improvement in future liquidity. The stock market is also in the relatively bottom range, which means that there will be more opportunities in the coming year. " Hui Liang believes that with the inflow of foreign capital, the monetary environment in the A-share market will improve next year, and many factors affecting A-shares will also improve marginally: the impact of trade friction may gradually weaken, and interest rates will continue to fall, which will make more funds flow back to the stock market. At the same time, the current stock market valuation is relatively low; In addition, the trial period of 5G applications will be ushered in next year, and there may be opportunities in the field of technological innovation.

In a relaxed liquidity environment, Li Lin first allocated a bond fund. His logic is that when more and more countries enter the negative interest rate state, China's creditor's rights will become high-yield assets to attract funds. Take the United States as an example, the yield of China's national debt is still about 130bp lower than that of the United States 10-year national debt.

Asked about the allocation of gold, Li Lin said that his wife bought two gold bars in Caibai. Under the background of low interest rate, the uncertainty of economic prospect makes the allocation value of gold as an interest-free asset more and more prominent than that of bonds. Hedge demand and currency devaluation will lead to the influx of funds into the gold market. Since the beginning of this year, central banks in various countries and regions, including China, have continuously increased their holdings of gold. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, central banks around the world have bought more than 400 tons of gold this year, which is the highest annual cumulative level since 20 10.

In Li Lin's view, gold will have a good trend in the long run, but in the short term, it is difficult for him to judge. Qin Yuan, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, has a similar view. Influenced by American economic trends, trade frictions, Britain's progress in withdrawing from the EU, American elections, Libra's promotion and other factors, it may be difficult to get out of a larger directional market in the short term.

For most funds in the market, the most rewarding place is the bank. With the new regulations of large capital management and the opening of bank subsidiaries, bank financing is changing to "net value" and "just exchange". According to the monitoring data of Puyi Standard, from 2065438 to September 2009, 373 banks nationwide issued 8564 bank wealth management products, and the issuing banks were the same as the previous period, and the product circulation decreased by 268.

Learn to be friends with time.

Among the clients who gather capital services, some clients have similar investment experiences with Meng Fan.

These people have many characteristics, blindly following the trend, chasing hot spots, and highly concentrated investment. In Hui Liang's view, the executives of many financial institutions have been irrational in internal investment. Assets must be allocated, including medium-term, short-term and long-term allocation, as well as high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk allocation, so as to truly achieve portfolio management.

Secondly, it is to choose a wealth management product that suits you. There are many financial institutions and sales in the market. Why do many people trample on P2P and equity investment? On the one hand, the sales organizations blindly exaggerate the income, blindly protect the capital, mislead investors and let some people who have no risk coping ability come in. On the other hand, investors don't understand the products, including the assets invested, the exposure of risks, and the liquidity paid for the income. They choose too many products that are not suitable for them, and finally there are problems.

"In addition, liquidity and concentration are also important factors to consider. 20 15, now many popular projects are facing difficulties in quitting. Many people trample on many P2P companies at the same time because they have not done a good job in asset allocation and have not correctly understood their risk tolerance. " Hui Liang said.

The middle class should learn to be friends with time in financial management. An executive of an insurance asset management company gave such a suggestion. His allocation suggestion is more direct: the nature of funds determines investment preferences, short-term funds are suitable for bank financing, funds with two or three-year cycles can buy stocks or stock-based funds, and funds with more than five years can invest in equity.

The above-mentioned executives also mentioned that as investors, they still need to face the change of rigid redemption curtain, which requires a new understanding and definition of risk, and choose products according to the rate of return, regardless of the fact that risk will become a thing of the past.

Weng Sheng, a financial planner with many years of trust sales experience, said that in the trust field, investors who enter the market around 20 1 1 are more experienced and more cautious; Investors who enter the market around 20 17 have less experience and are cautious and greedy. On the one hand, they hope to get higher returns, on the other hand, they hope to have relatively low risks. There are also some small white customers who still believe that the trust can be paid rigidly.

With the frequent occurrence of default time, the middle class's financial management concept and investor education also need to be continuously improved.