Zhongxin Jingwei Client February 6th According to official website, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI was 54.4% in January 221, down .8 percentage point from last month, and remained above 5% for seven consecutive months. In terms of regions, the manufacturing PMI of Asia, Europe and America decreased to varying degrees compared with last month, while the manufacturing PMI of Africa increased slightly compared with last month.
according to the analysis of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the growth rate of global manufacturing industry has slowed down compared with last month, but the index is still above 54%, indicating that the global manufacturing industry has continued its recovery since the second half of 22 and its overall operation is relatively stable.
In terms of regions, it shows the following characteristics:
The growth rate of African manufacturing industry has slightly accelerated
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in January 221, the PMI of African manufacturing industry was 5.6%, up .2 percentage points from last month, indicating that the recovery of African manufacturing industry has slightly accelerated from last month. Among the major countries, the manufacturing PMI of South Africa and Egypt rebounded to varying degrees from last month. The development of African economy depends more on the degree of global economic recovery. It is widely expected that the African economy will show a moderate rebound in 221. Whether the epidemic situation is effectively controlled is also the main factor that determines whether the African economy can recover steadily. Compared with other regions, Africa's weak transportation infrastructure and health system capacity have affected Africa's epidemic prevention and control, and also become a factor hindering its economic recovery. The official launch of the African Free Trade Area in 221 will help reduce Africa's excessive dependence on external economic development, promote Africa's integrated development and economic recovery, and inject new impetus into global economic integration.
The recovery of Asian manufacturing industry is stable
According to reports, in January 221, the PMI of Asian manufacturing industry dropped slightly by .1 percentage point to 52% compared with the previous month, and remained above 51% for four consecutive months, indicating that the recovery of Asian manufacturing industry is relatively stable. Among the major countries, China's manufacturing PMI has been at 51% or above for seven consecutive months, indicating that China's economy has maintained a relatively rapid upward trend, market supply and demand have remained at a good level, large, medium and small enterprises have maintained stable operation, and the market is more optimistic about the market outlook; The growth rate of manufacturing in India and South Korea has accelerated, while that in Japan has slowed down, and the PMI has dropped below 5%.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that the stable recovery of Asian economy has provided a good supporting role for global economic development. In 221, major Asian economies will benefit from the effective prevention and control of the epidemic and are expected to achieve accelerated recovery. The formal signing of RCEP has also provided a strong boost for economic and trade exchanges among Asian countries, which is conducive to the stable development of Asian industrial chains and supply chains. The IMF predicts that the overall economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies in Asia will be 8.3% in 221. Asia is expected to become the region that attracts the most foreign direct investment in 221. However, we must also see that there are still uncertainties in the evolution of the epidemic and the global economic recovery, and Asian economic recovery will also face challenges.
The growth rate of European manufacturing industry has slowed down
It is reported that in January 221, the PMI of European manufacturing industry dropped by .3 percentage points from the previous month to 54.1%, and remained above 54% for two consecutive months. Data changes show that the growth rate of European manufacturing industry slowed down in the beginning of 221 compared with last month, but the decline was not big, which continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of 22 as a whole. Among the major countries, the manufacturing PMI of France and Italy increased from last month, while the manufacturing PMI of Germany and Britain declined to varying degrees from last month.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that the pressure of epidemic spread is still the biggest obstacle to European economic recovery. Although European countries are trying to find a balance between economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control, only the earlier the epidemic is effectively controlled can a stable recovery be truly realized. Affected by repeated epidemics and blockade measures, the European Central Bank lowered the economic forecast of the euro zone, and the regional GDP increased by 4.4% in 221, which was lower than the expected rebound of 5.3% in October last year. Faced with the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the European Central Bank is considering further lowering the already negative interest rate, and has decided to continue to implement a package of loose monetary policies such as asset purchase plans and targeted long-term refinancing operations.
the growth rate of manufacturing industry in America slowed down
According to reports, in January 221, the PMI of manufacturing industry in America was 57.5%, down by 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above 57% for four consecutive months. Data changes show that the growth rate of manufacturing industry in America has obviously slowed down compared with last month, but the overall situation continues to recover in the fourth quarter. Among the major countries, the manufacturing PMI of the United States, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and other countries has declined to varying degrees compared with last month.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that the degree of economic recovery in the Americas also depends on the evolution of the epidemic. In particular, whether the American economy, which is seriously affected by the epidemic, can achieve sustained recovery is an important factor in the economic development of the Americas. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that the US economy is still struggling with the COVID-19 epidemic, and there is still a long way to go before it can fully recover. The Fed also continued to maintain a loose monetary policy and continued to buy assets until the US economy made substantial progress. In order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the United States also announced a national strategy to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic. The International Monetary Fund recently predicted that the US economy will grow by 5.1% this year, but whether this expectation can be realized still depends on whether the epidemic situation in the United States will improve in the coming months. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)