More and more provinces are fulfilling the pension increase in 2022.

/kloc-In July of 0/9, Hainan and Shandong successively issued the Notice on Adjusting the Basic Pension for Retirees in 2022 to continue to raise the pension for retirees. According to Uncle Cheng, up to now, at least 22 provinces in China have made clear relevant adjustment plans.

Looking at the whole country, retirees in many provinces have reached "one million". There are more than 3 million people in Beijing, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia, more than 7 million people in Guangdong and 910.5 million people in Zhejiang.

In the first half of the month, it was said that from now until the next 10 year, China will usher in the largest "retirement tide" in history, and the post-1960s generation will continue to retire at an average annual rate of 20 million people.

China has officially implemented the national overall planning of endowment insurance since June 65438+ 10 this year. As the "first pillar", the basic pension has a wide coverage, but its replacement rate is decreasing year by year; As the second pillar, the coverage of enterprise annuity and occupational annuity is small.

Not long ago, the "third pillar" personal pension was born. How will the new top-level design fill the pension gap? Facing more and more "new" elderly groups, how to protect their old age?

The biggest "retirement tide"

In 2022, men born in 1962 will reach the retirement age of 60, and ordinary female employees born in 1972 will also retire this year.

Actually, since 1949, China has experienced three baby boomers: 1950- 1958, 1962- 1975,1981- The biggest peak is 1962.

During this period, the average annual birth population in China reached 25.83 million, 5.06 million and 3.77 million more than the previous two baby boomers respectively.

Based on this calculation, the "post-60 s" and "post-70 s" born in this peak period will enter the old age around 2022-2035 and become the "main force" of the retirement tide. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the birth population reached 239 million in the 1960s and nearly 2170,000 in the 1970s.

It is worth noting that the number of people born in 1963 is the highest in recent 70 years, with 29.75 million newborns and a birth rate of 43.60‰. This also means that more people may retire next year.

The impact of this round of "retirement tide" will be multifaceted.

The first is the continuous sharp decline of the working-age population. Peng Xizhe, director of the Center for Population and Development Policy Research of Fudan University and dean of the Institute of Aging of Fudan University, recently pointed out that in this wave of "retirement tide", more than 20 million people will retire every year; At the same time, China's annual potential labor supply is about170,000-180,000. In other words, China will reduce its working-age population by 3-5 million every year.

This will increase the pressure on pensions. Peng Xizhe said that on the one hand, the increase in the number of retirees has led to an increase in the number of people receiving pensions; On the other hand, there are more retirees than new jobs, and the number of people paying pensions will continue to decline.

The status quo of the two pillars

At present, China's multi-level endowment insurance system mainly includes three aspects, namely the so-called "three pillars".

The first pillar is basic endowment insurance, including endowment insurance for urban workers and endowment insurance for urban and rural residents. In terms of coverage, more than 90% of the population in China have old-age insurance. However, there are still differences in pensions between different departments.

Image source: Picture Network 50 1 130800.

Ouyang Li is less than four months away from "formal retirement". She will study the "basic pension" that most people are familiar with.

Eight years ago, Ouyang Li, who had been doing business for half his life, left his hometown and moved to the provincial capital city with his family, and found a stable job. Originally, I thought that the social security of urban workers was paid, and the old-age care was guaranteed in the future.

However, when she was nearing retirement, the staff of her hometown human resources and social security bureau told her that she had to go back to her hometown to retire this year and "start to receive a pension" because she had not paid social security for 10 years in the new city, which did not conform to the local "retirement policy" and had reached the legal retirement age.

Ouyang Li is looking for a solution. She told us, "Although she has paid insurance in the provincial capital for less than 10 years, she can't apply for retirement; However, it is less than 15. It is said that you can apply for delayed retirement online and continue to pay social security for several years at your own expense. In line with the principle of paying more, I will get more pensions in the future. "

In order to strive for the possibility of "more pensions", Ouyang Li is still busy between the two cities. "This will determine how much money I can receive every month in the next few decades, which will greatly affect the quality of life, even if it is worth tossing," Ouyang Li said.

Although the coverage rate is high, as Wang Zengwen, a professor in the Department of Economics and Social Security of Wuhan University, said a few days ago, "the basic old-age insurance premium or basic pension has returned to the level of ensuring basic living. If you need a higher standard of living, or a higher level of safety and a higher level of service, you must pass the other two pillars. "

The second pillar besides basic pension is enterprise annuity or occupational annuity.

Tian Hong, who retired in 2020, used to work in a large central enterprise, and the enterprise would pay him an "annuity" every month. Before retirement, her monthly income was about 6500 yuan; After two years of retirement, her basic pension is about 5300 yuan per month, but three years before retirement, the enterprise annuity will give her a supplementary pension of about 2800 yuan per month.

Calculated, her actual monthly income at the beginning of retirement was about 8 100 yuan, even nearly 1600 yuan higher than that at work. "Although the annuity only has a three-year return, it can only be considered as a transition, and it will not make people's living standards plummet after retirement. But with this money, many colleagues are also looking forward to retirement. " Tian Hong said with a smile.

However, people like Tian Hong are still in the minority. As Peng Xizhe, director of the Center for Population and Development Policy Research of Fudan University, pointed out earlier, as the "second pillar", enterprise annuity and employee annuity have developed in recent years, but the coverage of people is still limited, and enterprises and institutions are facing greater economic burden pressure.

According to the data disclosed by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, by the end of 2002 1 17500 enterprises had established annuities nationwide, with 28.75 million employees and a total scale of about 2.64 trillion yuan. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic employed population was about 746 million at the end of the same year. This means that only about 3.85% of the employed population in China participated in enterprise annuity or employee annuity.

Establish a multi-pillar system

As early as 2020, the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" clearly proposed to "develop a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age insurance system, improve the coverage of enterprise annuities, and standardize the development of the third pillar old-age insurance". In 20021and 2022 the State Council Government Work Report, it is proposed to standardize the development of the third pillar pension insurance.

The so-called third pillar endowment insurance is personal savings endowment insurance and commercial endowment insurance. Previously, there was no national unified institutional arrangement in related fields, which was a shortcoming of the multi-level endowment insurance system. In April this year, the state officially issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Development of Personal Pension", and the "blank" of the third pillar system was finally filled. According to the news at the beginning of this month, Chengdu has become the leading city of individual pension in Sichuan Province.

Image source: Image Network 500886466

This is not a "substitute", but a better "supplement", giving ordinary people more choices.

Hu, a professor in the Department of Capital Finance at the Business School of China University of Political Science and Law, previously analyzed that the first pillar and the second pillar are linked to the unit, and the introduction of the third pillar has actually created a new space for the deep integration of China's pension and capital market. We personally have no right to choose the first pillar and the second pillar. The third pillar is our individual right to choose. "

Looking around the world, Japan's iDeCo plan, Germany's Liszt plan and America's IRAs are all successful representatives of the third pillar. Referring to the experience of Japan, Germany, the United States and other countries, the construction of the third pillar is particularly important for low-income groups and flexible employment groups.

However, even if individual pension is implemented, it may take some time to relieve the pressure of pension. Yao Yudong, former director of the Institute of Finance of the People's Bank of China, believes that the replacement rate of the third pillar must reach at least 10% to ease the pressure on the first pillar pension.

The first pillar of China's pension system is relatively large. Image source: Admiralty's finishing touch

Therefore, the country is still "strengthening" the first and second pillars.

Regarding the first pillar, China's pension insurance system has been gradually improving the level of overall planning since it was established in the 1990s. From July 2065438 to July 2008, China established and implemented the central fund adjustment system, which moderately balanced the burden of endowment insurance funds among provinces. Since June 65438+ 10 this year, China's pension insurance has further begun to implement national overall planning.

For the second pillar, 202 1 and 1, the state also issued the Notice on Adjusting the Investment Scope of Annuity Fund, which adjusted the investment scope of Annuity Fund, including increasing the proportion of equity investment from 30% to 40%.

When the retirement tide comes, while enjoying the "money bag" in their old age, the old people are also trying to add several layers of "insurance".