where will Kouzi Pit, which is in the trend of "falling behind", go in the future?

in August, the semi-annual report for 221 published by Kouzijiao showed that the operating income in the first half of the year was 2.243 billion yuan, up 42.9% year-on-year; The net profit was 687 million yuan, up 41.34% year-on-year.

the increase in revenue is mainly due to the increase in sales and income of high-end products. In terms of product grades, high-grade liquor contributed more than 9% of sales revenue, and high-grade liquor achieved sales revenue of 2.124 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 42.57% year-on-year; The sales income of mid-range liquor was 44.81 million yuan, an increase of 82.1% year-on-year; The sales revenue of low-grade liquor reached 42.8419 million yuan, up 34.55% year-on-year.

The interim report is not as good as expected

The operating indicators of Kouzijiao are improving, but the overall performance is not as good as expected.

vertically, in 22, the epidemic hit the cellar, and both revenue and net profit decreased by double digits. The data shows that Kouzijiao achieved an operating income of 1.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 486 million yuan in the first half of 22. Due to the low base, the performance in 221 accelerated significantly.

However, if the clock is turned back to before the epidemic, Kouzijiao achieved an operating income of 2.419 billion yuan and a net profit of 895 million yuan in the first half of 219. Simply comparing the interim results in 219 and 221, the operating income of Kouzijiao decreased by 7.28%, the net profit decreased by 23.24%, and the sales income of high, middle and low-grade wines also decreased, that is, Kouzijiao not only failed to recover to the pre-epidemic level, but also had a tendency of declining performance.

in addition, operating cash flows continue to flow out. In the first half of 22, the operating cash flow of Kouzijiao * * flowed out of 388 million yuan. Although it improved in the first half of 221, it still flowed out of 253 million yuan.

horizontally, in the increasingly competitive liquor market, the performance of Kouzijiao is not bright. "One side of the soil and water makes one side of the wine", and Anhui Province, as an important production and sales place of China liquor, has also bred the "four golden flowers" Gujing Distillery, Kouzijiao Distillery, Yingjia Distillery and Golden Seed Liquor.

In terms of revenue and net profit, Kouzijiao ranked second, second only to Gujing Distillery, but its operating income in the first half of the year was only one third of Gujing Distillery. Although the performance of Kouzijiao is slightly better than that of Yingjia Tribute, the gap between them is getting smaller and smaller in recent years, and Yingjia Tribute is quite a bit catching up and about to overtake.

In terms of overall profitability in the first half of the year, Yingjia Distillery was the highest among the four, and its net profit increased by 77.63% in the first half of the year, nearly double that of Kouzijiao.

a large amount of advertising money is invested in CCTV

As a local wine enterprise, the common problem on the table is: how to sell the wine to the market outside the province and even the whole country, so as to improve its performance.

In recent years, Kouzijiao has continuously explored the market outside the province, but the effect is little. According to the semi-annual report, the sales revenue of Kouzijiao in Anhui Province was 1.745 billion yuan, accounting for 78.88%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points compared with 76.2% in the same period last year. The sales revenue outside Anhui Province was 467 million yuan, accounting for 21.12%. The proportion of sales revenue in the province is constantly increasing, in sharp contrast, the growth rate of dealers outside the province is lower than that in the province and the market expansion outside the province is slow. In the past three years, the proportion of sales revenue outside Anhui Province has been 15.52%, 16.75% and 19.66% respectively. Can we break through the word "two" by the end of this year?

besides expansion, another strategy is "taking advantage of the situation". Kouzijiao pays attention to marketing and increases investment in sales expenses to enhance brand influence.

according to the financial reports over the years, the sales expenses of Kouzijiao in 22 surged by 37.96% year-on-year, reaching a new high of 546 million yuan, of which advertising expenses accounted for 7%. Kouzijiao said that the increase in sales expenses is mainly due to the increase in advertising, promotion and business expenses. By increasing publicity and creating brand characteristics, Kouzijiao wine has grown from a local famous wine to a national brand.

an investor survey report in August shows that Kouzijiao's estimated sales expenses in 221 are 4-5 million yuan, of which about 2 million yuan is CCTV advertising expenses and about 2 million yuan is channel expenses. However, with the rise of new media, some investors are dissatisfied with Kouzijiao's marketing method based on traditional TV channels. Netizen "zc823" said in E-interaction, "The company should keep up with the times to upgrade its product promotion, and it is recommended to tap more marketing promotion through Tik Tok, self-media and WeChat."

obviously, however, the large investment in advertising expenses failed to bring about an increase in operating income. From 218 to 22, the growth rate of sales expenses of Kouzijiao was 5.52%, 17.72% and 37.96% respectively, and the growth rate of operating income was lower than that of sales expenses except in 218, which were 18.5%, 9.44% and 14.55% respectively.

the sales expense ratio can simply measure the sales expense input required by an enterprise in exchange for the unit operating income. From 218 to 22 and the first half of 221, the sales expense ratio of Kouzijiao increased year by year, which were 7.88%, 8.47%, 13.62% and 14.5% respectively. That is to say, in order to obtain the operating income of 1 yuan, Kouzijiao invested more and more sales expenses, and its brand value was decreasing.

since the beginning of this year, many enterprises have explained with their own performances that the methodology of "exchanging sales for revenue" is no longer feasible and effective.

Ye Fei has repeatedly recommended

Liquor stocks have always made people crazy, and some even said that "Liquor is the last belief of A shares". Since the beginning of this year, the liquor sector has increased by 14.75%. Many enterprises' cross-border "touching wine" has also achieved good return on capital. For example, after coming to Iraq and Rock Co., Ltd. to open the liquor business, they all ushered in a daily limit.

However, as a cellar that has been deeply involved in the field of liquor, the stock price seems to have been on the train this year, and it has been ups and downs, which makes people panic.

In the past year, the highest share price of Kouzijiao appeared in the middle of January 221, about 77 yuan per share; The recent low point appeared at the end of August, about 49.5 yuan/share. According to this calculation, the stock price fell by one-third in eight months, and the market value evaporated by about 16.5 billion yuan.

The stock price trend of Kouzijiao in the past year

It is worth noting that when the stock market was stirring, Weibo Da V Ye Fei (@ Ye Fei Private Equity Champion), a million fans who had exposed the shady market value management of listed companies, repeatedly expressed his optimism about Kouzijiao.

according to public information, Ye Fei used to be a private equity fund manager, and he has been in the private equity circle for more than ten years, and he is the representative of "market value management of private equity funds".

Looking through Ye Fei Weibo, we found that the first Weibo about Kouzi cellar was in December 22. Ye Fei said, "Let's have a drink tonight". In the following eight months, Ye Fei repeatedly showed confidence in Kouzijiao. For example,

At the beginning of March, Kouzijiao fell to a low point of about 53 yuan/share, and Ye Fei said that it had "bottomed out", and replied to netizens' questions, "Who cut it?" There are fewer retreats than Maotai (6519). " In the following month, the share price of Kouzijiao rose slightly to about 61 yuan/share;

In mid-April, a netizen asked, "When will Kouzi fly?" Ye Fei replied slightly mysteriously, "You can't say that you can exchange shares if you don't like it";

In mid-May, Ye Fei successively published "I'm more optimistic about my hometown's koujiu. It' s not good to drink! " "Kouzi is also a good wine, with good quality and low price, and huge appreciation space, which is worthy of my own jiacang". At this time, it was after he broke the shady market value management that Kouzi cellar entered another stock price trough;

In June and July, Ye Fei went on to say that "there are two kinds of liquor, one is called Ye Fei Kouzi, and the other is called other liquors". "Don't you know the difficulty? Am I the maker of Kouzi?" And with "Is it possible to have five daily limit?" Live for the theme. In June, Kouzijiao ushered in a continuous daily limit against the trend, and it plummeted at the end of July.

While frequently optimistic about Kouzijiao, Ye Fei also distanced himself from the relationship, saying, "I don't recommend any stocks as operational advice".

It is also noted that since Kouzijiao entered the downward channel in August, Ye Fei has not made any related remarks. At present, due to the violation of community conventions, Weibo, Ye Fei is in a state of silence.