If there is no new substantial favorable policy support in the market outlook, it will be difficult for the market to hit 3, points, let alone 4, points.

Look through the historical records. No reduction in stamp duty has brought about a reversal, but it only slowed down the pace of the bear market, so that more off-exchange funds were involved in the quilt cover, and the institutions were able to lighten their positions smoothly. The problem of the size of the plunge was not solved until 1,8, which was not the bottom.

Now the risk is still very high, so it is recommended for friends with stocks. If the stocks are divided in the next two trading days, the weaker stocks can lighten their positions on rallies or go out, while the strong stocks can temporarily hold on to wait and see. Most short-term stocks basically have a profit of 15%. When the profit of short-term bargain-hunting funds increases to about 25%, they may choose to cash out. Please pay attention to the risks.

The reason for this adjustment may be related to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, a company with a long history in the United States, whose bankruptcy direct debt is as high as more than 61 billion US dollars. Compared with the debt of $61 billion, it is far from enough > And refused to buy the company in an all-round way, so the bankruptcy trend of the company is still hard to avoid), the subprime mortgage crisis has obviously not ended, and it will not be ruled out that more similar companies will declare bankruptcy in debt, and the US economy may face a recession of more than three years, which will have to be guarded against the negative impact on the future of the world (including China), which may lead to the profitability of many enterprises in China and indirectly affect the China stock market. Therefore, this news shows us that the macro pressure in the future will not be alleviated, but there is a risk of deterioration. Although the U.S. government has proposed a new $7 billion rescue plan to Congress, the predicament of the U.S. economy is in front of us, with debts as high as 5 trillion. Can this 7 billion really be approved by Congress? where is the money to come from? This is a variable, and the problem may become a potential major negative if it is not handled properly.

And the government finally suddenly attacked the long-awaited positive.

First, stamp duty was changed to one thousandth unilaterally (and my personal understanding of this policy is to pay attention to the positive degree brought by this policy, which is indeed positive, but the effect will be less than that brought by the last tax reduction! Last time, the stock market bulls were relatively strong and brought nearly 12 billion incremental funds to the stock market. In fact, the real rebound of the market was only four days, and the estimated incremental funds brought by this tax reduction did not exceed 4 billion. This is the most optimistic estimate, because the funds in the stock market are now as deep as 9%, and their funds to cover their positions are not very abundant, because most of their funds were consumed in the last stamp duty market and the previous continuous decline in the bargain-hunting, and the real surviving funds are few. In reality, reducing stamp duty has become a reality. The premise is that these funds have not been covered > And 9% of the funds are already too deep to buy and sell, and there is no money for the so-called large-scale bargain hunting, so the tax reduction is of no real significance to them, and the organization will not miss this opportunity to borrow good goods and see what the organization did when the stamp duty dropped last time.) < This positive is ultra-short-term positive and the positive degree is very small. It is not a major positive as advocated by institutions and the media. When institutions encourage retail investors to be optimistic about the market outlook, individual investors have to pay more attention, and the banking stocks that are emphasized by institutions are optimistic. Take Shanghai Pudong Development Bank as an example. On the 19 th, the trading of large institutions was basically flat and there was no obvious sign of opening positions. It is not excluded that old institutions continued to go out, while new funds outside the market entered. Since institutions are so optimistic about the banking board, Even for investors, it is boasted that it will increase by 1%. I am so optimistic about why the institution lightens its positions and gives such a good chip to retail investors. Individual investors should think more about the real intention of the institution. The capital system shows that the long-term trend of lightening positions of the stock by institutions and legal persons has not been reversed, including Friday's surge, and the chips have been gradually taken over by retail investors, middle households and large households >

Second, Huijin announced that it would buy back the shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) expressed its support for the central enterprises to buy back the shares (and some public opinions in the market deliberately called it the admission of the stabilization fund, while the promoters of the stabilization fund have indicated that the fund has not yet determined the source of funds, and there is no timetable for its real admission. However, the company is directly managed by the Ministry of Finance and has used foreign exchange reserves to hold a huge proportion of the shares of the above three banks. However, the loss of the company's profits from this wave can be described as very heavy, so the company's purchase of shares in the secondary market this time is suspected of holding the stock price, because the company's restricted shares take ICBC as an example. If the stock price is not held now, it may be halved when the restricted shares "Bank of China lifted the ban on July 15, 29" are listed, and the company's profits may continue to shrink to near the cost price. Then the company's strategic investment can be regarded as a failure. For example, if the company doesn't hold the stock price and lets the stock price fall to 2 yuan, the current market value of 354 billion may shrink to 236 billion, which is unacceptable compared with the company's 1, billion at the peak of the stock price. Therefore, holding the stock price is to sell at a higher price after the expiration of the lifting of the ban, which may not be optimistic about the long-term investment in the market, which is also forced by the market. Super big non > Who did the retail investors sell their shares to? Huijin's stock market value will rebound and then put it on the market, which will make another profit in this cycle! People's money continues to be sucked in to make up for the astronomical capital injection losses caused by the central bank in the operation of state-owned enterprises, and the use of national foreign exchange reserves for the losses caused by the system and mechanism of state-owned enterprises has also been questioned by some scholars and experts. ）< The news is good in the short term, but if the company does not promise not to sell shares and hold them for a long time after the lifting of the ban, the news may become a major negative in the future, because the company may bring about 8 billion selling pressure to the stock market. Can the stock market afford it? It is unrealistic for the state to encourage state-owned enterprises to actively buy back their own stocks. It is very difficult for many state-owned enterprises to survive at a loss. Is there really so much money to buy stocks that they don't know where they are, and give up their formal operations? >

It's only a matter of time before the size problem is solved to 1,5, and it won't be the lowest point either.

On Friday, most of the stocks were close to the daily limit, especially when the buying was dozens of times more than the selling at the opening moment, huge orders poured out, and the crazy chasing funds fell back. Although the market was once again stormed and closed, only the size and size and large institutions could do this. Although the market continues to be closed after the early trading, the intention is to create an illusion that bulls are absolutely overwhelming, giving the OTC funds room and confidence, and the institutions will spray more through the media and stock reviews. Only when the institutions in the market raise their selling chips, will they have more funds to take the initiative to receive chips, and ship pulled again. 227 is the first pressure level of this rebound, and 25 is the second pressure level. Take it when you're ready.

If the size problem that led to this bear market is really resolved in time, as implied by Xinhua News Agency's comments, then there will be hope in 211 after the peak of lifting the ban, and the market for major shipments has no bottom. The bottom is that the large-scale opening of positions by institutions is not that retail investors suggest that investors with high security requirements should not intervene steadily, and they should wait and see. The size problem that leads to the sharp drop directly leads to the imbalance of funds. The empty side has suppressed many parties for a long time, and in this long-term trend, the capital side is occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuates for a long time. This is the real reason why the stock keeps falling. < P > Under the situation that the downward trend caused by the tight capital side has been formed, investors should be rational and not blindly optimistic. The stock market is very complicated and simple. What is complicated is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market, but the simple thing is that the long-term long-term short-term trend of the capital side determines it. The long-term ups and downs of the market, but the stock market can't just fall without rising, and it will definitely rebound on the way down, but the scale of the rebound should be judged according to the good news of the policy. If these non-substantial good news are still used to support the market, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten the position. Only after the restrictions on the size and size come out, the market can ease the pressure on the capital and bring a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as this core problem leading to the plunge is not solved, investors will treat it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. However, the accumulated weakness of investors' confidence in continuous oversold makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain-hunting funds try to change this downward trend, the situation is not too optimistic. The current stock market is not the lack of confidence and lack of funds as the government said. Personally, both of them are lacking in the shadow of size and size. This year is the lightest year for size and size. There is only 3 trillion funds for lifting the ban, but it has already made the main funds in the market unbearable (before the main funds started to ship, the main funds in the market were only 3 trillion, but the size was not enough to eliminate them). Although the government came to a fund, it also had to talk about politics, but it seems that the substantive effect is not great. The action of institutions to continue to rebound and ship has not stopped, so they have to choose the strategy of fighting and retreating to reduce losses. Even before the Olympics, the government made so-called positive measures to prevent the stock market from continuing to fall, but as long as it is not a substantive solution to the size of the non-size, it is only a perfunctory policy, then in the current market where the long-short balance of funds has been broken, even under the trend of sideways operation or a small rebound during the Olympics, investors should not be too optimistic, because they should be cautious, because the substantive problems have not been solved. The funds will continue to be tight. It is wise to lower the rallies when there is a rebound caused by policies. Don't believe that the stock evaluation does not consider the actual big market. Since the non-lifting funds in 29 were nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 21 were nearly 1 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, the pressure on the funds is impossible to solve before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complicated, it is actually very simple. The law of the stock market is that if you sell more, you will fall, and if you buy more than you sell, you will rise. Most people know this truth, but why are some people unwilling to face it when the funds are already reflected? Don't believe that the size and size also require long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 4% or even as high as 1% as soon as the listing is lifted, the huge profits brought by this cost, in a weak market, do you think the holders of the size of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink (the size of the size is also an investor, and profit first is also their philosophy, When long-term shareholders think that only retail investors who are educated by institutions will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason, it is self-deception to talk about when the bull market will come back. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest supporting area of the market, 33~34, and the so-called policy iron base 299, which is the strongest in stock reviews and institutions, have collapsed rapidly in the face of the imbalance of funds. Therefore, short-term rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions without the support of new favorable policies. Of course, if marginal favorable policies are introduced to bring bargain-hunting funds, it is of course best to bring a relatively large rebound, which is a rare opportunity for retail investors. Strictly controlling positions is the only thing I want to say now, and lightening positions every rebound is rigorous. Only when you have funds in your hand can you have the initiative and you can usher in the real bottom. The bottom is that the main players are not retail investors. When the main players are forced to lighten their positions under the pressure of non-size and non-size, what small and medium investors can do is to follow the trend, not to move against the trend, and we must also control our positions when the institutions lighten their positions.

the above opinions are purely personal, so please adopt your friends carefully.