There is a need to continue bottoming out.

Look at the historical records. No stamp duty reduction has brought about a reversal, but it only slowed down the pace of the bear market, so that more off-exchange funds were involved in the quilt cover, and the institutions reduced their positions smoothly. The size of the plunge was not solved until 18.

The irrationality of China stock market was staged again, and investors did not care whether the so-called benefits really supported the broader market. Recently, from institutions to media to stock reviews, it seems that the global crisis experienced by China's economy seems to have never existed before, and it is no longer a threat to investors. As long as the so-called "so-called" benefits continue to emerge in the future, investors will be madly involved in the fight, and the authenticity and moisture of the benefits do not need to be verified at all. As long as they come out, they will be good. Huijin's increase of 2 million shares became a major positive (retail investors bought more than it did), and no one cared about the whole truth of the news that China Petroleum Company increased its holdings of 6 million shares on the 22nd (only 41 million shares were bought in the big order that day, and only 51 million shares were bought in all the retail investors). How did you buy these 6 million shares? The increase in holdings is still only a symbolic action, and it is full of false data. It is just that retail investors who have been raised by the market and have no shares to buy will care about the tricks in these data? The tax reduction in the United States has also become a major positive in China, which has become a reason for speculation. It is difficult for investors to wonder where the 7 billion bailout funds promised by the United States came from after the tax reduction. It could have been extracted by raising taxes (now it is a tax reduction). A negative has become a positive in China. The latest congressional vote in the United States was that the 7 billion bailout proposal was rejected, which triggered a global stock market crash. This is actually expected. Using taxpayers' money to save investors' losses has fundamentally caused resistance from ordinary people and many big power groups. Why do investors not have taxpayers' shares when they make profits? Taxpayers have to pay the bill when they lose money. To a certain extent, the rejection of the rescue plan has great public opinion in it. If the storm cannot be stopped now, the bankruptcy of a super giant like Lehman may only be the beginning.

First, the rescue of the market requires money to save, and this most basic thing, as the world's richest country, the United States, has an embarrassing thing, and the economy has gone wrong again when it can't pay off billions of foreign debts. The United States is the only country except China that can survive the economic crisis by relying on strong domestic demand. However, what happened this time was internal problems, not external problems, so this is not the same as the last Southeast Asian economic crisis. If this crisis expands into a global financial crisis under the tight bailout funds of the United States, it is safe to say that the United States may experience economic recession for more than five years. In today's global economic integration, China can't be immune to it, and the impact is just the beginning. We don't want the China administration to comfort the people of China, and the subsequent negative effects will be revealed one after another. China's strategy of expanding domestic demand is also unacceptable.

Even if this 7 billion yuan can be successfully passed, it will be difficult to reverse the current domestic funds in the United States. First of all, the debts brought by the two companies Freddie Mac are nearly 2 billion yuan. Lehman Company is 6 billion yuan, and the bankruptcy of Washington Bank this time has brought nearly 3 billion yuan in liabilities. Since this crisis has just begun, the pace of bankrupt companies will not stop here. It can be expected that many American economic giants will fall down one after another. Where did the United States get so much money to save the market, so the test of China government has just begun, and of course the test of China stock market has just begun. I hope China stock market can withstand the double pressures of size and financial crisis. ? 2

What is the institution doing when it tells retail investors a bright future?

TopView data shows that, in sharp contrast to the determination to do more hot money, the fund bought 3,683.2 million yuan and sold 7,69.2 million yuan on the day of the daily limit of the market last Friday, with a net investment of 3,386.1 million yuan, and the investors who bought the most were retail investors; On Monday, the net outflow of funds from institutions in one day released a large amount of funds with the market, accounting for the vast majority of active selling. And QFII's seat sales department is all net sales!

why are institutions so optimistic about the market outlook, while encouraging retail investors to boldly bargain-hunting, but they are frantically lightening their positions? Now they can only use the word crazy to describe it. Wave after wave of ship pulled will cooperate with new favorable rumors (the market rumors that margin financing and T+ will be launched after the holiday) (I have repeatedly mentioned to small and medium-sized investors that when the country really wants to formulate policies, it is a sneak attack, not to let the society know in advance. When is this not the case? Recall it! That is to say, the rumor may be as good as the rumor in the early stage, but it is impossible to say that all the rumors are made by institutions to cooperate with the shipment, and there is only one result. If it can't be fulfilled after the holiday, it is only risky to wait for small and medium-sized investors.) In July and August, the good news has been flying all over the sky for two months, and you may still remember that when the rumor is good, it may not be good. When the rumor is shattered and disappears, the market falls out of panic, no one believes that it is good, and it may only come out, and it may be wise to always stand opposite There is no harm in keeping a vigilant mind when most people lose their senses and judgment crazily. A little sensible fund managers know very well that all the so-called benefits in the world are dispensable, so the benefits that do not affect the overall situation are resolutely lightening their positions, but what they do is to make the benefits that do not affect the overall situation look like substantial benefits and give individual investors too much hope.

Huijin holds shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank. Therefore, this symbolic purchase of shares in the secondary market is suspected of holding the stock price, because the company's restricted shares take ICBC as an example. If it does not hold the stock price now, it may be halved when the restricted shares "Bank of China lifted the ban on July 15, 29" are listed, and the company's profits may continue to shrink to near the cost price. Then the company's strategic investment can be regarded as a failure. For example, if the company doesn't hold the stock price and lets the stock price fall to 2 yuan, the current market value of 354 billion may shrink to 236 billion, which is unacceptable compared with the company's 1, billion at the peak of the stock price. Therefore, holding the stock price is to sell at a higher price after the expiration of the lifting of the ban period, which may not be optimistic about the long-term investment in the market. This is also forced by the market, and the stock price will not return to the position where most people are trapped, because the company is a "super right and wrong" that exists for arbitrage. Who did the retail investors sell its shares to? Huijin's stock market value will rebound and then put it on the market, which will make another profit in this cycle! People's money continues to be sucked in to make up for the astronomical capital injection losses caused by the central bank in the operation of state-owned enterprises, and the use of national foreign exchange reserves for the losses caused by the system and mechanism of state-owned enterprises has also been questioned by some scholars and experts. ）< The news is good in the short term, but if the company does not promise not to sell shares and hold them for a long time after the lifting of the ban, the news may become a major negative in the future, because the company may bring about 8 billion selling pressure to the stock market. Can the stock market afford it? It is unrealistic for the state to encourage state-owned enterprises to actively buy back their own stocks. It is very difficult for many state-owned enterprises to survive at a loss. Is there really so much money to buy stocks that they don't know where they are, and give up their formal operations? >

it's only a matter of time before breaking 18, and it won't be the lowest point either. And 227 is the first pressure level of this rebound (it's the key to break through the market outlook, and it's impossible to lighten up on rallies), and 25 is the second pressure level. If the market can't break through at this point, it won't start to turn around. Take it when you're ready.

If the size problem that led to this bear market is really resolved in time, as implied by Xinhua News Agency's comments, then there will be hope in 211 after the peak of lifting the ban, and the market for major shipments has no bottom. The bottom is that the large-scale opening of positions by institutions is not that retail investors suggest that investors with high security requirements should not intervene steadily, and they should wait and see. The size problem that leads to the sharp drop directly leads to the imbalance of funds. The empty side has suppressed many parties for a long time, and in this long-term trend, the funds are occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuates for a long time. This is the real reason why stocks keep falling.

The stock market is very complicated and simple, and what is complicated may lead to changes in the stock market, but the simple long-term long-term short-term trend of funds determines the long-term ups and downs of the market, but the stock market can't just fall but will definitely rebound on the way down. However, the scale of the rebound should be judged according to the favorable news on the policy side. If the market is still supported by these non-substantive good news, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten the position. Only after the non-substantive restrictions on the size of the market come out, it is possible for the market to ease the pressure on the capital side and bring about a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem leading to the sharp drop is not solved, investors will treat it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. However, the weakness of investors' confidence in the continuous oversold makes the bottom-hunting funds very cautious. Although the bottom-hunting funds are trying to change this running trend, the situation is not too optimistic. The current stock market is not the lack of confidence and lack of funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that both of them are lacking in the shadow of size and size. This year is the lightest year in size, with only 3 trillion funds released (enough to eliminate the main force). Although the government has to talk about politics when it comes to a fund, it seems that the substantive effect is not great. The action of the organization to continue to rebound and ship has not stopped, and it has to choose the strategy of retreating while fighting to reduce losses. The government has made so-called benefits to stop the stock market from continuing to fall, but as long as it is not a substantive solution to the size of the non-profit, it is just some anodyne policies. Under the current situation that the long-short balance of funds has been broken, Investors should still not be too optimistic, because the real problems are not solved, and the funds will continue to be tight. It is wise to lower the rallies when there is a rebound brought by policies. Don't believe that the stock evaluation does not consider the actual big market. Since the size of the non-lifting funds in 29 was nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 21 were nearly 1 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, before this core problem that led to this plunge is solved, It is impossible to solve the pressure of funds. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complicated, it is actually very simple. The law of the stock market is that if you sell excess, you will buy down, and if you buy more than you sell, you will rise. Most people know this truth, but why do some people not want to face it when the funds are already reflected? Don't believe that the size and size also need long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 4% or even as high as 1% as soon as the listing is lifted, the huge profits brought by this cost, in a weak market, do you think the holders of the size of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink (the size of the size is also an investor, and profit first is also their philosophy, When long-term shareholders think that only retail investors who are educated by institutions will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason, it is self-deception to talk about when the bull market will come back. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest supporting area of the market, 33~34, and the so-called policy iron base 299, which is the strongest in stock reviews and institutions, have collapsed rapidly in the face of the imbalance of funds. Therefore, in the short term, without the support of new favorable policies, rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions. Only when funds are in hand can we have the initiative and usher in a real bottom. The bottom line is that the main players are not retail investors. When the main players are forced to reduce their positions on a large scale under the pressure of non-size and non-size, what small and medium investors can do is to follow the trend, not to move against the trend, and we must also control our positions when the institutions reduce their positions.

the above opinions are purely personal, so please adopt your friends carefully.