Direct impact: Once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the US dollar will strengthen, which will lead to the depreciation of RMB and the decline of RMB asset prices (including house prices and land prices), thus weakening China's economy.

Indirect effects: once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the dollar will strengthen, emerging market capital will flow out, and the currency will depreciate, which will further affect China's foreign investment and exports and impact domestic capital; The decline of commodity prices (including oil price and gold price) has reduced the import cost of China and increased the risk of imported deflation.

1, the impact on RMB exchange rate

Since 1 1, affected by the rapid rebound of the US dollar index and other factors, the RMB has started a new round of decline against the US dollar, breaking through 6.7, 6.8 and 6.9 all the way, making ordinary people panic about the future of the RMB. In fact, the recent decline in the renminbi is an early release of the Fed's interest rate hike. Perhaps when the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate hike, the RMB exchange rate may also enter a short-term stability or rebound slightly.

2. Impact on the A-share market

Recently, A-shares performed well because the domestic economy showed signs of recovery, which promoted the performance improvement of listed companies. However, in the medium term, the foundation of China's economic recovery is still not solid, and it is still difficult to estimate the capital outflow caused by the Fed's interest rate hike. The future trend of A-shares depends on whether the capital market has a money-making effect, and whether China's economy really recovers completely, which can offset the pressure of capital outflow caused by interest rate hikes.

3. The influence of China bond market.

China's medium and long-term interest rates are mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand and the expectation of the future economy. The Fed's interest rate hike has a great impact on the international capital outflow of emerging economies, which will aggravate the upward trend of domestic medium and long-term bond interest rates. In addition, the domestic bond market is also "deleveraging", so the interest rate of China bond market will rise as a whole.