This article takes notes for personal study. All information comes from public information and is not taken as any investment advice.
I became interested in her chicken (000850) after seeing my friend's successful case of "investing in Buddhism" last week.
201165438+/kloc-0 was born on October 26th. By the end of 20 17, the scale was not very large, only 474 million yuan. Miraculously, from birth, the institutional shareholding ratio of this chicken is very high, even exceeding 50% for a long time.
What makes it so popular with organizations? Who would let division trust so much?
So I found a magical fund manager.
Qiu Dongrong, the fund manager, is 34 years old (still quite handsome). He manages three funds (HSBC Jintrust Market A, HSBC Jintrust Dual-core Strategy A and C) with beautiful data.
Looking at the overall investment performance in the past three years, it can be summarized in one sentence: the bull market has risen more than others, and the bear market has fallen less than others.
No matter which chicken it is, the proportion of institutional investment is particularly high. Especially 000849:
I was shocked when I saw it.
As we all know, the investment of institutional funds must be investigated by a professional team in advance, and institutional funds will only choose to invest if there is a high probability of making money. For a fund with a scale of 7.9 billion, 80% institutional shareholding means that 6.3 billion institutional funds choose trust fund managers. However, with the fund scale rising year after year, the proportion of institutional investment has not changed much, which means that more and more institutional funds favor him.
Just met such a powerful fund manager today? !
I went to see an interview with Qiu Dongrong. I found him really different.
On the basis of the traditional "PB-ROE" model, Qiu Dongrong created a set of investment methods called "too special to evaluate".
How can I put it?
First of all, he advocates value investment. However, he does not reject junk stocks. More precisely, what he pursues is "cost performance". Qiu Dongrong mentioned in the latest interview that liquor stocks are indeed stable and in line with the concept of value investment, but he will not vote because the implied rate of return is not high (simply put, the price is too expensive).
Secondly, Qiu Dongrong believes that investment earns "uncertain pricing".
This is amazing.
Generally speaking, we will think that if we want to invest in winning assets, we will have a greater chance of making money. However, Qiu Dongrong believes that if the certainty of making money from an asset is high, it is likely that the market has given a sufficient premium.
Markets tend to overestimate certainty and underestimate uncertainty.
Therefore, Qiu Dongrong will prefer assets with great uncertainty and use quantitative models to calculate the risk probability. If the risk of the same asset is high, but the implied income is large and it can bear the biggest loss, he is likely to choose.
For example. Asset A has a 1% probability of earning 1 100 million yuan and a 99% probability of losing 1 10 thousand yuan; Asset B has a 90% probability of earning 1 10,000 and a 10% probability of losing 1 10,000. Then for assets A and B, Qiu Dongrong will choose A-because if the investment is successful, the return will be very large; And if the investment fails, the loss is not big.
The so-called "advance can attack, retreat can defend."
Friends rated Qiu Dongrong as "high-risk preference and bold". After reading the interview, I think Qiu Dongrong's high-risk preference actually has a very shrewd price calculation. He is willing to take risks, but the risks should be "worth it".
Qiu Dongrong's three funds have no dividend habit in the HSBC Jintrust market, but the dual-core strategy has paid dividends on time for three consecutive years.
Dual-core strategy is divided into two funds, A and C. The strategy, transaction and net value are the same, but the difference is the rate rules. The rate rules of the two funds are arranged as follows. For the subscription rate, different platforms have different discounts, so the subscription rate of A may be lower than the marked one.
Choosing an actively managed fund is actually choosing a fund manager.
At present, manager Qiu Dongrong's approach is amazing. According to the evaluation of people around him, he is a very stable person, and nothing has changed much. Judging from the interview, his thinking is very similar to that of Charlie Munger. He doesn't respect individualism, he doesn't create a star image, and he has a clear sense of boundaries. So, in the new year, I began to invest in his fund.
Of course, past performance does not represent the sustainability of future performance, and the future is hard to say. It is also difficult for actively managed funds to judge undervalued and overvalued areas. So, if you decide to vote for him, there is no need to choose the time.
Why did the Buddha decide to vote? Look after a chicken, set the rules, and then do what you have to do.