Pay attention to business cycle and valuation when choosing industry ETF.
About the style division of industry funds, it can be roughly divided into three styles: growth, value and cycle, which is recognized by the market. Chips, new energy vehicles, medical care, emerging consumption, Internet, etc. Belonging to the growth type; Banking, real estate, insurance, infrastructure, etc. Belongs to the value style; In addition, nonferrous metals, coal and steel are cyclical.
Compared with choosing individual stocks, choosing industry ETF does not need to consider the research on the fundamentals of individual stocks, but it needs to increase the research on business cycle and valuation. This is what I always say: everything has a cycle, and underestimation will never be defeated. Simply put, we prefer industries with long-term boom cycles, such as medical care, chips, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and emerging consumption. Their business cycle is long enough, their logic is long enough, and their compound interest value is relatively large.
However, it is not a good time when their valuation seriously overdraws their performance in the next few years. Even if they don't sell, they can't buy any more. You can look at the indicator PEG (P/E ratio relative profit growth rate). PEG > 1.5 basically belongs to the high foam area, so don't invest any more. The value sectors, such as banks, real estate, insurance, infrastructure, etc., have a slow growth rate. If they enter an extremely undervalued area, such as the valuation is only 6-9 times and PEG is 0.8- 1 times, they will also be valuable.
Short-term trading selection technology and periodic ETF.
Some friends still like to do short-term work. This operation is more suitable for ETF with large fluctuation. From a practical point of view, chips, new energy vehicles, military and other technology ETFs. , as well as non-ferrous metals, coal, securities, etc. In the cycle category, the fluctuation is relatively large, which is a good variety choice for investors with short-term trading ability. However, when investors choose, they should try to choose an industry ETF with a long boom cycle, and its fault tolerance rate will be higher.
You can be bolder.
Investors who invest in ETFs can be bolder and need not be timid. Of course, I still don't recommend margin trading (adding leverage). When I say bold, I mean that after the bottom intervention, you don't need to worry about meeting all kinds of black swans, you can hold them boldly. Because ETF, as a passive index fund, completely tracks the development trend of the industry, as long as it intervenes at a relatively low point, it is inevitable to hit a new high in the future. Even if you buy at a high point, as long as you have patience, you will hit a new high sooner or later, but it is too painful to chase the high point. Try not to do it. In short, ETF investment is a kind of variety with guaranteed bottom, no worries about clearing positions, and it is destined to hit a new high when it rises.
Big band
As a long-term investor, I understand the importance of long-term investment. I have also experienced crossing bulls and bears, and I have long been not afraid of the operation of one or several companies owned by bulls and bears. I have experienced success and failure. This method is not impossible, but it is not feasible in ETF investment.
Let's take the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index as an example. If you don't make a profit at the highest point of 589 1 in 2007, even if you consider dividends, it will not reach a new high until 2020. Therefore, for ETFs, large bands are still needed. In other words, whether it is a broad-based fund or an industry fund, there is no big mistake in profit-taking when it comes to historically high valuation areas.
Pay attention to discount premium
After understanding the above five points, can I invest in ETF? No, I suddenly thought of one thing, that is, the premium and premium of ETF (I will explain it in this book). In short, when the premium exceeds 1.5%, don't subscribe any more. Premium means that if you buy at a price higher than the current price, you will be harvested by hot money. Don't do this. Of course, if the investment happens to have a certain discount, this bargain can be earned.
LOF is a useful supplement.
ETFs in the market are passive funds, lacking active funds with heavy OTC leading stocks. This is a great pity, but the LOF developed by Shenzhen Stock Exchange makes up for this deficiency. These funds are basically active funds and are a useful supplement to ETFs. In addition, there are some exponentially enhanced lofs to choose from.
The greatest value of the book Common Sense of Fund Investment is probably to break some old understandings about fund investment. For example, if an investment fund can't outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, it can only be held for a long time, and it should choose a low valuation. Of course, all this is based on common sense and practice. This book systematically introduces the basic knowledge and specific methods of fund investment.
The purpose of investment funds is to obtain reasonable income and as much income as possible under reasonable conditions. This kind of understanding should be established by every investor. If you are afraid of risks and adopt an extremely conservative strategy and care too much about low valuation, the investment results are often unsatisfactory. Since you are doing venture capital, you can't be too conservative. Otherwise, why not put your money in the bank? Investment is risky, and this risk will not become bigger or smaller because of valuation. This may be the first conventional understanding to be broken.
The second conventional understanding that this book wants to break: if you choose a good direction, the return rate of investment funds can outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Statistics show that in the long run, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index can outperform 80% of investors (including professional investment institutions) in the market, and the number of people who outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is a minority after all. However, if we can explore and persist in growing industries, we can actually do it. For example, from the release of the index in 2004 12 to the present 17, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 4.85 times, the CSI consumption index by 24.3 times, and the CSI medical index by 14.2 times.
The book Common Sense of Fund Investment needs to break the third conventional understanding. Doing fund investment also needs to do a good job in industry and company research. There is no such thing as "lying down to win". If you just pursue the average yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, it is called "lying flat". You don't need to study this book, or even learn any professional knowledge about fund investment, as long as you insist on investing in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. However, in order to obtain higher excess returns, it is necessary to know something about industry research and company research. Of course, it needs to be admitted that most ordinary investors do not have the professional ability to study industries and companies, which is also a lesson for everyone in this book.