Last week, the market went directly from 345 to 318. The adjustment of the index is drastic, and the index has lost 5% in a week! In particular, the 1-point long yinxian line on July 16 swore that the power of adjustment is. The adjustment of GEM this time has determined the adjustment trend. It can be said that every time the continuous adjustment of the big yinxian line in the market, especially the adjustment of the 1-point long yinxian line, the destructive power is quite great! According to the traditional bull market, the frequent occurrence and sharp decline of the market is indeed a major feature of the bull market. However, this continuous plunge last week did not recover quickly, which is also different from the previous bull market. How to correctly interpret this big yinxian line and not take it back after the plunge? Our view is that this is the first stage of the bull market! That is to say, the bull market on the daily line has clearly gone up, and the adjustment of the second wave has come to an end. However, it takes time to resolve this two wave, on the one hand, to resolve the destructive power of the big yinxian line, and on the other hand, to give insurance funds enough time and space to enter the market.
Actually, I haven't changed about the bull market. Before, it was certain that the market changed from bear to bull, but the recent adjustment was not that the bull turned into bear. It is a major feature of the bull market, but this time it is a bull market at the beginning, and it is a divided and comprehensive bull market. If you have memory and experience, you should know that last week's fluctuation was not surprising. The bull market loves a big drop and a big yinxian line. Take the recent bull market as an example. In 214 and 215, the bull market was like this. There was a lot of illogical and unprovoked plunge. What is different from this time is that those plunge and plunge in the middle or climax of the bull market were all paid quickly. Because this time is still in the early stage, and many things have not been done, we can't go fast and leverage cattle, but we have to go healthy cattle, so it is normal to come back again.
what is the nature of this adjustment? Time for adjustment? What about the room for adjustment? What is the nature of this adjustment? My view is that the first stage of the bull market is over, that is, the daily wave of wave theory is over and comes to the second wave adjustment. After the growth enterprise market rose, the main board did not rise, and the big capital promotion came to an end. This is what we said before. This is a normal adjustment of the bull market, which has not changed the essence of the bull market. The main basis of this judgment is that the market has reached the fundamental level, regardless of the ups and downs, and now it has exceeded one trillion for 12 consecutive trading days. Judging from the adjustment time, all previous bull markets are big financial and other sectors. After the first phase of the bull market is completed, it will take about one month to repair. This time will start from the middle of last week, that is, the adjustment time will probably be around mid-August. From the perspective of adjustment space, because the Growth Enterprise Market is the leader and a strong plate, so looking at the main board, the main board runs in the box of building 315-345, which is the adjustment space of the index, and the downward limit space of the Growth Enterprise Market should be around 255-253.
what is the purpose of the adjustment? There are many purposes for this adjustment. Domestic and foreign news causes and interferes. It is obvious that we should not leverage cows and fast cows, but slow cows, healthy cows and long cows. At a deeper level, it is necessary for the stock market not to be too fast, and to be more suitable with the economy. And we think the most important and important adjustment purpose is to wash positions, wash dishes, switch positions and exchange shares, and switch styles! It's to provide the chance to get on the bus again by giving funds of this nature just to increase the amount of money! Provide time and space for low-priced and low-priced food for funds of this nature! This is obvious, because they haven't got on the bus yet, and similar "national teams" don't eat enough food. There is a high probability that they won't get up immediately, but they should give enough time and space for funds of this nature and scale to purchase and eat!
After the listing of science and technology innovation board SMIC last week, the Cambrian will be listed soon. Next week is science and technology innovation board's first birthday.
1. The securities fund industry welcomes good results: CSRC encourages mergers and acquisitions and supports employee stock ownership. This is a real big positive, and the official encouragement of mergers and acquisitions can be said to be the core driving force of the bull market. These big financial stocks of brokers are not rising blindly, but this time they are promoted by reform. However, judging from the short-term trend, brokerage stocks should rest and wait for the next wave.
2. The upper limit of the equity investment of A-share "good insurance enterprise" with a class of 1 billion has been raised from 3% to 45%. This is the most important news last Friday. According to the analysis, the "loosening" of the allocation of insurance rights and interests by the State Council and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission this week will greatly expand the space for equity investment. Due to the risk preference and I9 law, insurance companies will not increase the allocation of rights and interests soon. Considering the current time, they have expressed the care of the market by decision-making. Tianfeng estimates that the new insurance funds in the stock market will be between 29 billion and 53 billion each year in the next three years. Short-term 1 billion level, medium and long-term incremental funds of trillion level in the medium and long term are coming in. Why do you suddenly adjust the threshold for their entry into the market? This time, the market has been adjusted so quickly, is it to make room, time and chips for them to enter the market?
have investors noticed that the wind has changed since the violent adjustment of the market last week, and the voices of cooling down in the market have become warm again. The market wind is changing again. We need to understand and tolerate our market. Every time it goes up, it goes up too much! Every time it falls, it falls too far! A few days ago, it went up too much, but these days our judgment has gone down too much!
3. Tianan Property Insurance and other four insurance companies and two trust companies are temporarily taken over for one year. This matter has a great impact. The radical reform of financial institutions is the reason for the recent adjustment and the clean-up and healthy development of the industry.
4. The CSRC shall take over New Era Securities, Guosheng Securities and Guosheng Futures according to law. This is also a major event in the brokerage industry, and the official also said that it basically has little impact on the capital market. Everyone knows the reason for this. So it affects objective analysis, which is a good thing! The superposition of Founder Securities has opened the prelude to the reform of securities firms!
5. External summary: The three major indexes of US stocks are mixed, and the share price of Weilai Automobile fell by more than 14%. The external market as a whole has not changed much, and now the capital market outside is stable. On the contrary, there is interference in the news, but the influence is also decreasing.
1. After the adjustment of 2 waves on the daily market, the big 3 waves on the weekly market rose to a turning point. We continue our previous views on the market. The first stage of pushing up big stocks has ended, and the stage of pushing up big weights and big blue chips with OTC incremental funds has passed, which was emphasized last week. Therefore, the market will soon come to the adjustment stage.
according to the wave theory, the Shanghai stock index should have finished the first wave of the daily line, and now it has come to the end of the second wave adjustment. Now is the end of the daily level 2 wave adjustment, brewing 3 waves to rise. However, because this wave of 2 waves is adjusted too fast, too fierce and too large, it is the killing of the big yinxian line! So it will take a long time to dissolve, and this big yinxian will need at least two temptations to dissolve and swallow. This is a superficial view of wave theory at the daily level.
If we look at the weekly level, the Shanghai Composite Index will see a big three-wave rise at the weekly level next year, and now it is a three-wave rise. That's right. The current question is whether the three-wave rise is over or in progress, which is a controversy. Our temporary view is that this big wave is still in the rising stage. Although it is a setback, it is not over. This 3 wave is in progress. If it is said that the three-wave rise has not ended and the four-wave adjustment has not been carried out, then it will not be adjusted a lot corresponding to the daily level. This is the long-term protection short-term! Now it should be the beginning of the 3-wave rise in the weekly level, and the Shanghai Composite Index will return to the 5-week line+shrinkage is in place. Therefore, there is nothing to worry about even if we do it again in the short term.
2. After the collapse of the three major tracks, the capital spillover situation and sectors in the market outlook. Last week, the sudden outbreak of internal and external uncertainties that led to intensified adjustment in the market. In particular, Kweichow Moutai suddenly brought about the big consumption of liquor and medicine, and the sudden collapse of brokerage stocks led to the collapse of technology stocks caused by Big Finance, SMIC and CAMBRIAN. The three main tracks of big consumption, big finance and big technology all collapsed and capital overflowed. It is hard to say that these varieties are completely finished, because they will all reach new heights in history, but some funds will definitely overflow.
cross star: Last Friday's cross star was very meaningful. Some people said it was a stop signal or a relay. This is all ignorant of technology or not real technology. Because technically, the signal given by the cross star is meaningless in itself, and the cross star is meaningless! The significance of the cross star is that the trend of a K-line behind it is of directional significance and turning point significance. Therefore, how to go on Monday is very crucial. My personal opinion is to do at least, next week, the market will rebound and draw back at the beginning of the week, and then look at the volume and plate situation of the market.
shrinkage: the sharp shrinkage of the market last Friday is regarded as a signal that the short-selling kinetic energy is exhausted and the adjustment is over. Energy is a very important signal. We think this is noteworthy, and it should be the end signal of stage adjustment and the sign of energy exhaustion. According to the bull market, this is a sign and significance. It should have stopped falling. If the follow-up stabilizes here, it will be better if the volume can shrink again.
individual stocks stopped falling: last week, many stocks showed signs of stopping falling, and then repeated. However, many stocks that were obvious last Thursday and Friday stopped falling, and many sectors took the lead in stopping the decline. This is also a very positive signal last Friday.
plate form: last week, after the brokerage stocks stopped falling and made up for their losses, we thought it was adjusted. However, financial stocks, especially banks and brokers, stopped falling after showing more lure last week. This kind of resilience also means the end of the stage decline. The next performance of the plate is to wait for the first stocks with rising plate effect and get out of the strong plate.