China Merchants Bank is on fire!
After the magical year of 2020 and the more uncertain year of 202 1, China Merchants Bank suddenly "rioted" in the capital market, and its share price rose more than last year in just one month. However, since the lowest point last year, its share price has nearly doubled.
It should be pointed out that China Merchants Bank is not a small-cap stock, and its current market value has reached 1.38 trillion yuan, which is a typical elephant dance.
What is the concept of 1.38 trillion? This market value is second only to ICBC and CCB in banking stocks. According to the market value algorithm of the CSRC, China Merchants Bank has even surpassed China Construction Bank, with only four daily limit from ICBC.
But there is another side to high market value. The profit of China Merchants Bank is only one third of that of ICBC. If ranked by the asset scale of 20 19, the total assets of China Merchants Bank is 7.4 trillion, while the "Cosmic Bank" has exceeded 30 trillion, which is not in the same level at all.
But it is such a target, but it has welcomed the favor of institutions and ordinary investors. According to the latest institutional investment data, there are as many as 9 14 institutions holding China Merchants Bank (tradable shares), of which 869 are funds alone, which is the sixth largest A-share and the largest institutional heavyweight among banks. Recently, heavyweight investment institutions frequently investigate banks.
What the hell does this mean? Who is speculating in China Merchants Bank? Why did you fire China Merchants Bank? What kind of transformation is the thinking and logic of institutional stock selection undergoing? What is the bubble and color of China Merchants Bank? Has the carnival of banking stocks arrived?
It may take time to answer these questions, but in any case, China Merchants Bank is an object worthy of "anatomy".
202 1 China merchants bank made a big counterattack, which rose by more than 25% for more than a month, while it only rose by 20.58% last year. This performance makes no difference even in front of trillions of state-owned banks-a trillion-dollar "big plate" stock bank is as active as several skyrocketing city commercial banks.
Similarly, since last year, Maotai's high share ratio has been popular in the A-share market, and there are more and more voices singing more banks. This time, investors who didn't "get on the bus" and "Yinmao" once again fell into the predicament of being trampled empty.
Figure/vision china
However, there was a "riot" in banking stocks, and investors waiting for brokerage stocks to drive the bull market were somewhat disappointed. A retail investor with many years of experience in A-share investment told Ai Caijing: "In the past, everyone advertised that brokers were the standard-bearers of bull markets. Last year, the group market was so active, and the brokerage business was also reflected in the financial report. I didn't expect bank stocks to get up first. "
The fundamental support brought by macro-economy, the increase of credit interest rate caused by capital tightening, the cooling of risk appetite in the secondary market, the threat of "grabbing orders" in Internet finance greatly reduced, the financial report exceeded expectations after the impact of the epidemic, and the capital pursued profits ... The market's optimism about banking stocks can be summarized as "time, place and people". If the group funds are worried about the tightening of market funds, or will look for more stable investment targets, bank stocks in the net-breaking tide are the best choice for many investors.
Judging from the bank's trend, there was a wave of high prices in July and June last year 165438+ 10, but it quickly turned back sharply. Although China Merchants Bank is also the object of institutional solidarity, its performance is not good. At the top of institutional positions, they are all industry leaders, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, China Ping An, Midea Group, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., China Merchants Bank, China Zhong Mian, Lux and Hengrui Pharma. However, China Merchants Bank only rose by less than 2 1% last year, which is the worst among the TOP 10 institutional positions except China Ping An.
Why can China Merchants Bank become another "chosen son" this time? Some people think that it is market differentiation, some people think that it is the advantage of high-growth retail tracks, and some people think that it is boosted by financial reports.
Anyway, from the historical low of 19 in March last year to today, the share price of China Merchants Bank has risen by more than 80%, while the increase of bank index in the same period is less than 17%. Compared with Xiamen Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Bank of Ningbo and other city commercial banks, this performance is certainly not the craziest, but as a "large-cap (market value)" banking stock, it is rare to double the market.
The soaring share price of China Merchants Bank, in turn, pushed up its total market value in the A-share market. On the last trading day before 20021Spring Festival, China Merchants Bank once rose more than 2% in early trading, and its share price hit a new high of 56.40 yuan/share, and closed down to 54.55 yuan/share. At present, the total market value of 1.38 trillion ranks third in the whole A-share market, and the previous CCB and ICBC have been less than 500 billion. Although China Merchants Bank's ability to make money is far less than that of ICBC, ABC, BOC and CCB, it has surpassed all other listed banks in China, and its profit is expected to exceed 97.3 billion yuan in 2020.
Last year, with the new scale of fund public offering exceeding a new high of 3 trillion yuan, ordinary investors paid more attention to fund positions and position adjustment. In the latest quarterly report, in addition to China Merchants Bank, there are 585 bank stocks, 465 banks, 438+04 banks and 329 Bank of Ningbo fund positions. Some institutional investors told Ai Finance that the goal of institutional selection is not only to see how much money is earned now, but more importantly, the future potential and moat.
In the institutional group market, investors like to call the group leader of various industries "XX Maotai" to reflect the same irreplaceability as the "stock king" Kweichow Moutai: high barriers, high profits and high growth. In the banking circle, China Merchants Bank is "silver hair".
Because of the successful transformation of retail business, China Merchants Bank was advertised as the "king of retail". In recent years, regardless of performance or stock price, China Merchants Bank has achieved overtaking in corners, especially in the secondary market. The circulation ratio of several trillion state-owned banks is very small, such as China Construction Bank, with a total market value of 1.73 trillion and a circulation of less than 70 billion; Either most of the outstanding shares are in the hands of state-owned assets, such as ICBC. Of the total market value of China Merchants Bank 1.38 trillion,1.3 trillion is in circulation. Among the top ten A-share shareholders, except for investment promotion, the rest are all below 10% or even 5%.
This also means that in addition to the increasing institutional positions, ordinary investors have more opportunities to participate, and more and more retail investors can't bear to join in. By the end of the third quarter of last year, the number of shareholders of China Merchants Bank had reached 4 1.78 million, an increase of more than1.20 million.
"The low valuation of bank stocks is famous in A-shares, but I didn't expect a counterattack after the epidemic," a stockholder questioned the circle of friends in the investment exchange group. "The impact of the epidemic has passed so quickly?" However, some investors said in the group that they would not hesitate to sell wine to buy a bank.
The market's "goodwill" towards banks may stem from the sharp contrast between the late and early stages of the epidemic. Under the pressure of the epidemic impacting the economy, financial profitable entities and real estate regulation, the valuation of the entire banking sector fell to a historical low last year. However, judging from the financial report data, since the second half of last year, most banks have shown signs of improvement. 65438+February, an investor named Lu Li completely detonated the secondary market.
Figure/vision china
Known as the closest China person to Buffett, Lulu manages the family assets of Buffett's friend Charles Munger, and became famous in World War I because he introduced BYD shares to Buffett ... Just last year, in 65438+February, Lulu's Himalayan Capital suddenly made a move on the Hong Kong stocks of the Postal Savings Bank, and the first move was HK$ 4.3 billion. After that, continue to add positions to buy "placards" (currently holding 5.49%). Subsequently, the Hong Kong stock and A-share banking sectors were constantly changing.
As early as 165438+ 10, Lu Li also investigated Ping An Bank. Coincidentally, in recent days, the records of institutional research and reception published by Wuxi Bank have also appeared in the land. At the same time, CITIC Jiantou, Guo Sheng Finance, Huitianfu Fund, Huatai Baoxing Fund and Changjiang Pension Fund also participated in the survey. These are well-known domestic buyer-seller organizations, and every move affects the heart of "leek".
Extending the timeline, Ai Caijing found that in the last six months, Bank of Ningbo, Suzhou Bank and Shanghai Bank all had institutions "visiting", and they were all well-known institutions such as, Gaoyi, Ruiyuan, Jing Shun Great Wall, Bank of Communications Schroeder and Gaoying, among which Bank of Ningbo was investigated by many institutions many times. Counting the stock price performance in the last six months, these banks are in the forefront.
Lulujiancang Postal Savings Bank may be just a fuse this time. Although the epidemic raged, last year most banks continued the downward cycle of NPL ratio in the previous three years, and the asset quality was even better than before the epidemic. This question puzzled many people. However, the current favorable situation continues, and many retail investors also follow the institutions to buy in buy buy.
Judging from 18 listed banks that have published annual reports and 2020 performance forecasts, after large-scale write-off of non-performing loans, the industry generally achieved a decline in non-performing loan ratio and most of its profits achieved positive growth. Think about the requirements of "10.5 trillion fund beneficiaries" in the first half of the year. These performances have exceeded market expectations.
It is also good for banks that the domestic macro-economy continues to improve, which is the main support of the fundamentals of banks. On the other hand, although the central bank stated that monetary policy will not "turn sharply", the expectation of tightening funds has gradually taken shape, and many people have even recognized that this is a bearish high stock, which is conducive to low valuation and stable performance. As a result, many stock market groups began to feel uneasy, seeing that the holding stocks such as liquor and new energy in their hands were gradually divided and "disintegrated", but Maotai, which really rose to more than 2,500 pieces, could not afford it. Some people don't want to miss the "opportunity to make money" again, and bought four bank stocks in just one week.
"The partial wealth management fund I bought was unconsciously 20 points." In August, the ETF yield of a bank bought by some people in the group has reached 18.34%. Although it is still far below the increase of more than 40% in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index in the same period, the fund increased its position in February. On February 5, the banking sector, which rose sharply for several days in a row, broke out again, setting off a wave of daily limit. Wuxi Bank hit the daily limit, and some retail investors analyzed in the group: "Wuxi is gambling, and it was established after yesterday's chase. Who knows that there will be a daily limit today? " On the same day, China Merchants Bank's share price also hit a new high. Some investors who claimed to have been trading stocks for more than 20 years said: "If you don't buy anything now, you will buy a bank. China Merchants Bank bought last year has doubled. "
Is the bank's carnival coming?
The last bank stock "riot" was after the IPO of Ant Group was suspended. Ant's biggest profit comes from Alipay's platform with more than 700 million people this month, and its market share in third-party mobile payment reaches 55%. In addition, there is Yu 'ebao 1.2 trillion. Of the matching loans of 2,654.38+0 trillion yuan (as of the end of June last year), 1.73 trillion yuan was personal consumption loans (mainly distributed in cooperation with financial institutions by means of flowers and loans), and 4.21.70 billion yuan was small and micro loans. The former accounts for 265,438 of short-term personal consumption loans in China.
Although ants continue to cooperate with traditional financial institutions, their left hand holds eight kinds of licenses: banking, insurance, insurance brokerage, public offering, fund sales, private placement, factoring and small loans, and their right hand holds huge traffic. The model of "transactional finance" gave birth to risks and moved others' "cheese". After the ant incident, the supervision issued a series of new regulations on Internet finance supervision. Some netizens commented that banks have long suffered from "ants".
Figure/vision china
But are banks really as glamorous as the capital market reflects?
"Nonsense!" A senior bank researcher disagreed with the view that the tightening of funds pushed up the credit interest rate, which was beneficial to banks. "At present, the bank's benefits have already occurred, that is, the easing (lag effect) since the second half of last year. On the contrary, the hidden worry is that the growth rate of M 1 has slowed down and the macroeconomic growth rate has slowed down. "
He believes that the current banking market is similar to the M 1 rise at the end of 20 18 and the rise after the Spring Festival of 20 19. If the currency falls back quickly, the upside of bank stocks may be limited.
The most important question is, is the bank really out of the epidemic haze?
Judging from the financial report data, most banks were obviously affected by the epidemic from last year's semi-annual report, and the growth rate of net profit turned from positive to negative. At that time, it was reported that some banks received verbal guidance from the regulatory authorities, requesting appropriate adjustments to the growth rate of net profit in the first half of the year. Some analysts said that this has little impact on banks with low non-performing loans and high provisions, and there is more room for adjustment, but on the contrary, there may be obvious fluctuations.
On February 2nd, Ping An Bank, as the first listed bank to disclose its annual report, handed over a shiny report card. At the performance meeting, senior executives announced an unprecedented write-off of 90.936 billion non-performing assets, an increase of 42.5 billion yuan compared with 20 19. Further analysis of the write-off of non-performing assets shows that loans only account for 59.36 billion yuan, and the remaining 30 billion yuan is investment assets. Of the 69.6 1 1 100 million yuan of credit impairment provision, only 4.3148 million yuan belongs to loan impairment loss provision, and nearly 26.5 billion yuan belongs to investment assets provision, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 65.438+06.89% in the same period. This also means that the release of provision may provide Ping An with more room for profit adjustment when the impairment provision is consumed more.
"Anyway, (the epidemic) has a great impact on the loan business. Last year, we all worked overtime to postpone the repayment of car loans, "said a bank employee in a county in Shandong Province. "We mainly issue large car loans. In the first half of last year, the car couldn't run (business). How can I pay if I have no money? " However, this influence has not yet been reflected.
The situation of different banks varies greatly. When the demand for "profit10.5 trillion" first came out, there were rumors that several state-owned banks, especially in the banking circle, wanted to reduce costs by "reducing salaries", which was finally refuted. Wang Wei works in the local branch of the Agricultural Development Bank, and his feelings are just the opposite: "Because we are a policy bank, we mainly accomplish policy tasks. The treatment has not declined, but it is good to complete the task. " At the beginning of the epidemic, Wang Wei's bank responded to the policy and supported industries related to epidemic prevention and control. Among them, the loan for a textile enterprise producing non-woven fabrics (mask raw materials) is RMB/kloc-0.000 million, with an annual interest rate of 2%, and the cost is about 3.8 percentage points lower than that of ordinary corporate loans from banks.
"We will also make up for the impact through our own efforts, but there is no such thing as salary reduction, and the income of employees does not have much impact." Vice President of a local branch of China Construction Bank also told Ai Finance that even if it is profitable, it will choose high-quality customers, mainly providing preferential interest rates to support enterprises, so as to benefit banks. An employee of the local branch of Agricultural Bank of China also said, "Last year, loans increased a lot. When the epidemic came, many people were afraid to invest, and their savings were excessive. On the other hand, the demand for corporate loans that are short of money has also increased significantly, and banks will respond to policies to reduce fees and reduce loans to them. "
There are two main channels for banks to make profits, one is to squeeze the net interest margin, and the other is to increase the non-performing loans of banks. Guotai Junan Bank team estimates that every 5bp reduction in net interest margin is equivalent to a profit of 0. 1.2 trillion yuan; When banks write off write-offs, every 5bp increase in NPL ratio before write-offs is equivalent to a profit of 0.06 trillion yuan.
According to Sun Guofeng, director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, in 2020, the CBRC will guide banks to make profits of about 420 billion yuan by urging banks to reduce fees, supporting corporate restructuring and debt-to-equity swaps. Guide the loan interest rate to fall, with a profit of 590 billion yuan; Re-lending and rediscounting supported the issuance of preferential interest rate loans, benefiting 46 billion yuan; The bond interest rate has dropped to 654.38+020 billion yuan for the issuers; Two direct tools made a profit of 380 billion yuan. Together, these figures are basically consistent with the original planned profit10.5 trillion.
"Domestic development is basically stable, large and medium-sized enterprises are not bad, and some small and micro enterprises have been shuffled. According to the proportion and disposal method of collateral, the business of each bank is different, and the specific risks are different. " Regarding the potential adverse risks caused by poor management, a person in charge of Guangfa Bank Beijing Branch told Ai Finance that "the risk will generally be delayed by 2-3 years."
If we can consider the lag risk in the next 2-3 years, banks will also face two problems: new regulations on asset management and new regulations on real estate.
This year is the last year of rectification after the extension of the new asset management regulations. Although major banks are accelerating the construction of wealth management subsidiaries and increasing the proportion of net worth products (relative wealth management products), the pressure of rectification is still not small. By the end of last year, the balance of wealth management products of non-guaranteed banks in China was 25.86 trillion yuan, of which net worth products were about 17.40 trillion yuan, the latter accounting for 67.29% of the former, but it took banks three years to reach this ratio.
The person in charge of the aforementioned Guangfa Bank Beijing Branch said that the new real estate regulations have a great impact on the loan scale and operating income. This effect may be more direct than the epidemic. However, some analysts said that the high probability of 202 1 is "a small year for the stock market and a big year for the property market", which is not necessarily a bad thing for banks. However, recently, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other hot cities in the property market have successively introduced regulatory policies, which have once again suppressed the loan market.
Valuation dispute
While the share price of China Merchants Bank soared rapidly, the market also disputed its valuation.
"China Merchants Bank and Ningbo (Bank) are quite special." The above-mentioned senior bank researcher bluntly said that such banks may not strictly follow the liquidity law.
From the fundamental analysis, China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank and Bank of Ningbo belong to the retail banks that have taken the lead in improving the quality of their business assets and recovering their retail business quickly, while Industrial Bank belongs to the banks that benefited the manufacturing industry after the economic recovery. The share prices of these banks in the secondary market are indeed significantly better than those of most banks.
From the "Maotai" of various industries, it can be seen that repetitive consumables with high gross profit are more likely to grow. As the largest retail bank in China, China Merchants Bank is no stranger to many credit card holders of China Merchants Bank. By the end of June last year, China Merchants Bank had 1.5 1 100 million debit and credit card customers, and the total balance of retail customers under management was 8.26 trillion yuan, including 65,267,300 circulating credit cards, corresponding to 96,387,300 bank cards, making it the largest credit card issuing bank in China. Coupled with the rapid growth of profits, this is in line with the criteria for institutions to choose "Maotai" to some extent.
By the end of June last year, China Merchants Bank's retail finance business had achieved an operating income of 78.779 billion yuan, accounting for 53. 10%, which has been declining continuously, and the competitive pressure of retail business is also increasing. Although the personal retail business of city commercial banks including Bank of Ningbo has also developed rapidly, it poses little threat under the restriction of off-site deposits, and its biggest rival is Ping An Bank. Ping An Bank focuses on smart retail. By the end of last year, the number of credit card circulation cards reached 64.25 million, and the number of retail customers reached 654.38+007 billion, and the gap was gradually narrowing.
Among the retail customers of China Merchants Bank, the retail customers of private banks with monthly total assets of 500,000 yuan and above and monthly total assets of 6,543,800 yuan and above are all high-net-worth customers, and the market competition is fierce. At the end of the first half of last year, it was 2917,900 and 9 16 respectively, of which the assets of private banks were 2 16. During the same period, Ping An Bank's private banking customers reached the standard (the average daily assets in any month in March exceeded 6 million yuan) and exceeded 50,000, with an average annual growth of 1.37 million in the past two years. The assets of private banks have exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and the growth rate is obviously faster than that of China Merchants Bank.
Another pressure comes from supervision. "It is not appropriate to use consumer finance to expand consumption." On the evening of February 8, the central bank mentioned for the first time in the monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter of 2020 that it should be highly vigilant against the overdraft effect and potential risks brought about by the excessive increase of residents' leverage ratio, and said that some financial institutions ignored the risks behind consumer finance, and the customer qualification sank obviously, and the problems of multi-head debt and excessive credit were prominent. Since 2020, the non-performing rate of credit cards and consumer loans in some banks has shown signs of rising.
As can be seen from the complaints of black cats, the reasons for users' complaints include not accepting negotiated repayment, violent collection by third parties, harassing family members, maliciously reducing the quota and so on. Ai Caijing found that from 20 18 to the first half of 2020, the number of credit card circulation cards of China Merchants Bank increased by 34.98%, 13.04% and 1. 14% respectively compared with the end of last year, the credit card transaction amount was 3,793.836 billion yuan, and the bad credit rate was 4,348.36 million yuan.
From the perspective of income composition, more than 70% of China Merchants Bank's income comes from interest income, and fees and commissions contribute about 20%. In terms of interest income contribution, the average yield of short-term loans of China Merchants Bank is much higher than that of medium-and long-term loans, among which credit card overdraft and small and micro loans are the main driving forces. In the first half of last year, the yields of corporate loans and retail loans of China Merchants Bank were 4. 14% and 6. 10% respectively. Although there is still a big gap in the loan scale, Ping An Bank's yields were 4.28% and 7.23% respectively last year, both higher than those of China Merchants Bank. Compared with the net interest margin reflecting profitability, although the industry generally declined under the influence of the epidemic, the net interest margin and net interest margin yield of China Merchants Bank in the first half of last year were 2.42% and 2.5% respectively, and may decline slightly in the fourth quarter, but by the end of last year, the net interest margin of Ping An Bank remained at 2.53%.
Back to the capital side, although the valuation of the entire banking sector is not high, the differentiation is very obvious. Bank of Ningbo, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank and Hangzhou Bank all reached high valuations, with dynamic P/E ratio and P/B ratio exceeding the high point of 20 15. At the same time that southern funds poured into the Hong Kong stock market, China Merchants Bank's Hong Kong stocks also hit a new high. However, just as the stock price has been hitting record highs recently, the "smart fund" has reduced its holdings of more than 65.438+million A shares of China Merchants Bank.
Behind the capital shift, high-level cashing also began to happen frequently. The Social Security Fund recently cashed in more than HK$ 654.38+059 billion by reducing its holdings of 59.867 million H shares of Bank of China. One of Bank of Ningbo's original shareholders, Zheng Yonggang, a capital tycoon, cleared Bank of Ningbo of Shanshan shares, and Youngor, the third largest shareholder, also significantly reduced its holdings recently, cashing in more than 654.38+00 billion yuan.
As early as 65438+February 65438+July last year, Renren Life sold more than19.3 million A shares of China Merchants Bank, and the number of shares held fell to12.32 million shares. Since Anbang was reorganized into universal insurance in July last year, universal insurance has successively reduced its holdings of China Construction, Vanke A, Eurasia Group and Dashang, but it is the first time to reduce its holdings of China Merchants Bank.
(At the request of the interviewee, Wang Wei is a pseudonym in this article.)