It is because China has the problem of the size of funds that leads to the imbalance.

According to the statistics of the fluctuation probability of stock markets in previous Olympic Games, the probability of rising in the year of hosting the Olympic Games is 4%, and the probability of falling is 6%, so it is not appropriate to explain that the Olympic Games must rise. The peak period of lifting the ban on size and size that caused the stock market to plummet after the Olympic Games will come. The pressure on funds will be more obvious. The probability of falling is far greater than that of rising.

Today, the short-term support area of 28~282 in the market easily falls. If the market outlook can recover this support level in a short time, there is still hope. If it cannot recover, it will continue to be weak. Pay attention to controlling the position not to be too high, and the market decline channel will be opened again. It is possible to test the point of 25 again. Only when the market regains the market after 282, there is still a chance to see the pressure area of 35 higher. Take advantage of the trend.

The problem of size and size that led to the sharp drop directly led to the imbalance of funds, and the empty side suppressed many parties for a long time. In this long-term trend, the funds were occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuated for a long time. This is the real reason why stocks kept falling. After August, it was the peak of lifting the ban on size and size. The probability of decline is greater than that of increase. The latest fund statistics show that since July, the large-scale opening of institutions advocated by stock reviews has once again become a joke. Although the scale of lightening positions in July has greatly slowed down, funds and insurance institutions have still reduced their positions by nearly 25 billion. The main force of this wave of rebound has become hot money, but the characteristics of hot money are well known. Since it is a hot money sniper market, in the case that traditional large funds continue to raise and lighten their positions, If there is still no more practical advantage in the market outlook, this wave of rebound caused by favorable rumors may become the last good opportunity for institutions to reduce their positions. After all, the Olympics is only a theme and will not bring any substantial improvement to the funds of the market. Institutions will not miss this opportunity to increase and reduce their positions, but the rebound height still needs to pay attention to the cooperation of favorable news on the policy side, and the specific situation will be analyzed. With the new IPO of the market coming soon, The market will continue to stand the test in terms of funds. Please pay attention to the support of the short-term market in the range of 28~282. If it holds, this wave of rebound will be promoted by hot money with the support of the Olympic theme (some stocks). However, if this short-term support area is easily penetrated and cannot be recovered, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of hot money. If the hot money begins to retreat on a large scale, investors are advised to reduce their positions on rallies from a safety perspective. Traditional institutions.

The current market feature of the broader market is that the market repeatedly relies on rumors that have never been fulfilled to rescue the market. First, the country has introduced seven measures to rescue the market. In the absence of cash, the broader market has broken its position and a national stabilization fund has been allowed to enter the market to rescue the market. The promoters of the second balance stabilization fund have rumored that there is no such thing ... If the market of a stock market relies entirely on rumors to maintain the shock and slow down the downward trend, no real substantive measures have been introduced. Then we should think more about the purpose of this rebound. What is the purpose of the organization? It frequently creates rumors to boost the stock market. The latest fund statistics results have come out. In this booming bargain-hunting operation, funds, insurance and QDF2 are all net outflows. In the case that the market was optimistic by investors last week, the net outflow of these main funds was close to 25 billion, which is completely unexpected. It is another rumor ship pulled. The real purpose of frequent positive rumors in the market is also very clear. "ship pulled". Since the institution has maintained a net outflow under the circumstance that everyone is looking forward to the red July and the performance in the semi-annual report, although the market is doing well, there is still no sign of change from the intention of the institution. The long-term goal is still to reduce the pressure of avoiding the size of positions and macro policies.

under the situation that the downward trend caused by the shortage of funds has been formed, investors should be rational and not blindly optimistic. The stock market is very complicated and simple. What is complicated is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market, but the simple long-term long-term short-term trend of funds determines the long-term upward and downward trend of the market, but the stock market cannot just fall but will definitely rebound on the way down. However, the scale of the rebound should be judged according to the favorable news on the policy side. If the market is still supported by these non-substantive good news, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten the position. Only after the non-substantive restrictions on the size of the market come out, it is possible for the market to ease the pressure on the capital side and bring about a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem leading to the sharp drop is not solved, investors will treat it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. The weakness of investors' confidence in continuous oversold makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain-hunting funds try to change this running trend, the situation is not too optimistic. The current stock market is not the lack of confidence and lack of funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that both of them are lacking in the shadow of size and size. This year is the lightest year in size, with only 3 trillion funds released. However, the main funds in the market have been overwhelmed (before the main funds started to ship, the main funds in the market were only 3 trillion yuan, but the size was not enough to eliminate them). Although the government came to a fund to talk about politics, it seems that the substantive effect is not great. The action of institutions to continue to rebound and ship has not stopped, so they have to choose the strategy of retreating while playing to reduce losses. Even before the Olympics, the government made so-called benefits to prevent the stock market from continuing to fall. However, as long as it is not a substantive solution to the size of the non-profit, it is just some anodyne policies. Then, in the current market where the long-short balance of funds has been broken, even under the trend of sideways operation or a small rebound during the Olympic Games, investors should not be too optimistic, because they should be cautious, because the substantive problems have not been solved. The funds will continue to be tight. It is wise to lower the rallies when there is a rebound caused by policies. Don't believe that the stock evaluation does not consider the actual big market. Since the non-lifting funds in 29 were nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 21 were nearly 1 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, the pressure on the funds is impossible to solve before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complicated, it is actually very simple. The law of the stock market is that if you sell more, you will fall, and if you buy more than you sell, you will rise. Most people know this truth, but why do some people not want to face it when the funds are already reflected? Don't believe that the size and size also need long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 4% or even as high as 1% as soon as the listing is lifted, the huge profits brought by this cost, in a weak market, do you think the holders of the size of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink (the size of the size is also an investor, and profit first is also their philosophy, When long-term shareholders think that only retail investors who are educated by institutions will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason, it is self-deception to talk about when the bull market will come back. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest supporting area of the market, 33~34, and the so-called policy iron base 299, which is the strongest in stock reviews and institutions, have collapsed rapidly in the face of the imbalance of funds. Therefore, short-term rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions without the support of new favorable policies. Of course, if marginal favorable policies are introduced to bring bargain-hunting funds, it is of course best to bring a relatively large rebound, which is a rare opportunity for retail investors. Strictly controlling positions is the only thing I want to say now, and lightening positions every rebound is rigorous. Only when you have funds in your hand can you have the initiative and you can usher in the real bottom. The bottom is that the main players are not retail investors. When the main players are forced to lighten their positions under the pressure of non-size and non-size, what small and medium investors can do is to follow the trend, not to move against the trend, and we must also control our positions when the institutions lighten their positions.

if we have to talk about the support level below, let's look around 25. In fact, the strongest support level has already fallen. Of course, if the government is willing to issue a substantive policy to solve the problem of size, then the market will be a big market, and it will not be such a small fight now. However, personally, it is not realistic. The government originally wanted the market to digest nearly 2 trillion yuan, and the government would be willing to pay for it itself. < P > (Some reflections on the bear market operation) First, it is a long-term trend that the shock gradually declines in the bear market, and good news is only a condition for the rebound. However, when the stimulus of good news fades, the rebound will end (and the rebound height depends on the size of the good news), and the downward trend temporarily changed because of the good news will continue, and the stock market will return to its natural law. Before the core problem that led to the plunge is solved (size), it is impossible for the stock market to turn around and reverse. In the trend of continuous decline, it is good that 1 of the more than 2, stocks are on the rise, that is to say, the probability of buying a falling stock when the market falls is 95% or more. As an investment, since we know that there is such a low probability of choosing a stock attacked by hot money, it is better not to take the risk. Choosing to operate oversold rebound is a good investment strategy for investors who pay attention to the safety factor in this trend, because the rebound after oversold is certain, and there is no stock market that only falls but does not rise, but only the size of the rebound (depending on whether there is good news and the size of good news). In this rebound process, it is generally dominated by general growth, and the stocks that are falling in this rebound process are below 1%, that is, The probability that you buy a stock at random is far greater than the probability that you get involved in the stock during the decline. Although the stock can't take this probability as the standard of copying shares, as an investor with high security requirements, trend investment is the safest investment strategy in a bear market. It is safer to choose this strategy if the shareholders who have a bad grasp of the stock want to get involved in the stock market in the bear market. But remember, only oversold can you copy a short-term, and the general decline generally chooses to wait and see. The red plate in the middle may be a trap for people. One day, it bounces back, and the next day, it will cover all the people who are bargain-hunting. Therefore, if you can't grasp where the bottom is in a bear market, you'd better make a trend and reduce the risk (personal opinion is carefully adopted).

Now, take advantage of the trend. Don't be a dead bull or a dead bear. Just be a slick. Before the market has no choice, strictly controlling your position will minimize your risk.

The above opinions are purely personal. Please adopt your friends carefully.