Yes.

The report first reviews four rounds of sharp increases in crude oil prices in history and concludes: Global oil prices are mainly determined by supply and demand. At the same time, monetary factors will also have a direct impact on oil prices. Geopolitics and crude oil inventories indirectly affect the supply and demand of crude oil.

Oil prices are disrupted.

The First Oil Crisis 1973-1975: Both economic and political factors played an important role in this oil crisis.

From an economic perspective, the conflict of interests between oil-producing countries and Western oil monopolies was the main reason for the first oil crisis.

Due to the control of oil prices by international oil monopoly companies, oil prices have been maintained at around 1-3 US dollars for a long time during this period. Oil-producing countries are dissatisfied with the long-term low prices of the old capitalist oil system and Western oil companies are unwilling to make concessions. This has caused conflicts between both parties.

The contradictions are becoming increasingly acute.

From a political perspective, the root cause of this oil crisis is that Arab countries mainly want to use oil weapons to require the United States and others to abandon their support for Israel and force Israel to withdraw from occupied Arab territories.

On October 6, 1973, the Fourth Middle East War broke out. On October 14, the United States publicly airlifted weapons to Israel and provided $2.2 billion in military aid to Israel on the 19th. After that, Arab countries began to implement a series of production reduction and oil embargo measures.

Pushing the oil crisis to a climax.

The second oil crisis 1979-1980: In this round of oil crisis, on the one hand, it was the objective factor of reduced passive supply caused by the war. At the end of 1978, the "Islamic Revolution" broke out in Iran, resulting in a serious shortage of supply. The price of oil dropped from 13 US dollars /

The barrel climbed all the way to 34 US dollars/barrel. On September 22, 1980, the "Iran-Iraq War broke out", oil production facilities were destroyed, and the market had a gap of 5.6 million barrels per day. The international oil price once climbed to 41 US dollars/barrel.

On the other hand, the market's psychological expectations also play an important driving role.

In 1978, the Rockefeller Foundation stated in a report that "the world will gradually experience a long-term shortage of oil, or even a serious shortage," which led to rising market expectations for rising oil prices.

Oil companies began to stockpile oil, and individual consumers began to grab oil, driving the supply of crude oil to decrease by approximately 3 million barrels per day, and the demand for crude oil to increase by 3 million barrels per day.

The self-fulfillment of psychological expectations has pushed up oil prices and intensified their rise.

The third oil crisis 1990-1992: Also due to war, in 1990, Iraq launched the Gulf War against Kuwait. The oil facilities of the two countries were severely damaged and oil production dropped sharply.

In early August, after Iraq occupied Kuwait, it was subject to international economic sanctions and its oil supply was interrupted.

In just three months, international oil prices rose sharply from US$14/barrel to US$42/barrel, and the oil crisis broke out.

The U.S. economy subsequently fell into recession in the third quarter of 1990, dragging down global economic growth.

However, compared with the previous two oil crises, the impact of this oil crisis is not that great.

On the one hand, the war did not last that long, with the main combat lasting about a month. At the same time, the oil production levels of other countries in the world were also increasing. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) adequate emergency plan also played a key role.

effect.

Short supply drove oil prices up 2003-2008: During this period, the global economy, especially Asia, rose rapidly, and demand for crude oil rose sharply, driving oil prices to rise.

Since 2004, international oil prices have steadily increased driven by demand, and entered a stage of rapid improvement after 2007.

In January 2007, Brent crude oil price was US$54.3/barrel, and by July 2008, the oil price reached US$133.87/barrel, an increase of 146.54%.

Therefore, from the demand side, the demand for crude oil is closely related to economic growth in the long term, and oil demand responds earlier than changes in GDP; from the supply side, it is mainly affected by the cost of oil reserve extraction.

In addition, since crude oil is priced in US dollars, there is a significant negative correlation between oil prices and the trend of the US dollar.

When the dollar weakens, it becomes cheaper to buy oil using other currencies, stimulating demand and pushing oil prices higher.

Conversely, as the dollar appreciates, oil becomes more expensive for other investors, dampening demand and sending oil prices lower.

The logic of the impact of the oil crisis on the market 1. Macro level 1) The rise in oil prices first brings about an increase in costs in the field of industrial production, which has a direct effect on the rise in PPI, while the rise in PPI leads to a decline in the production and marketing capacity of industrial products.

During the three aforementioned oil crises, the total industrial output value of the United States declined. Among them, the decline was the largest during the first oil crisis, with the total industrial output value falling from 1.46 trillion U.S. dollars in October 1973 to 1.31 trillion U.S. dollars in June 1975.

US dollar, down 8%.

During the first oil crisis, PPI fluctuations in various industries were also the largest.

Specifically, the degree of cost increase in each industry will vary depending on the degree of oil consumption.

Judging from previous oil crises, the PPI of fuel-related products and power, chemical and related products, and metal and metal products-related industries has the largest year-on-year increase, while the year-on-year PPI of pulp and paper products, rubber and plastic products, and textiles and clothing industries has relatively smaller increases.