This paper interviewed a number of real estate developers and industry experts, analyzed the overall impact of policies on real estate, and interpreted the impact of each policy one by one.
I. Resume the merger, reorganization and supporting financing of listed companies involved in housing. Qualified real estate enterprises are allowed to implement reorganization and listing, and the target of reorganization must be listed companies in the real estate industry. Allow listed companies in the real estate industry to issue shares or pay cash to purchase housing-related assets; When issuing shares to purchase assets, you can raise matching funds; The raised funds are used for housing-related projects, payment of transaction consideration, replenishment of working capital, repayment of debts, etc. , but not for land expropriation, land auction and the development of new buildings. Listed companies in industries closely related to real estate, such as construction, should follow the policies of listed companies in the real estate industry and support the integration of "same industry, upstream and downstream".
Zhu Jin, chief analyst of the real estate industry of CITIC Jiantou Securities, said that allowing backdoor listing and refinancing will help central enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and at the same time help reduce the liquidity pressure of private enterprises. 20 16 so far, no real estate enterprise has successfully listed on the backdoor. This policy will resume the real estate enterprises' housing-related reorganization and listing, and open the floodgates again, which will help enterprises with existing real estate assets outside the listed company system to inject in-vitro assets, enlarge the net assets and scale of listed companies, and revitalize existing assets. At the same time, the refinancing of housing enterprises can be resumed, and the raised funds can be used to supplement working capital and repay debts, which is conducive to further reducing the current financial pressure of housing enterprises and promoting their healthy development. In addition, raising funds through equity financing will also contribute to the implementation of the policy of "capital preservation and production protection".
The real estate team of Ping An Securities said that the New Deal allows qualified real estate enterprises to implement reorganization and listing, and allows listed companies in the real estate industry to issue shares or pay cash to purchase housing-related assets to support financing; On the one hand, it is conducive to the real estate enterprises with land resources owned by the holding parent company of the group to become bigger and stronger, and to revitalize the unlisted land reserve of the group; On the other hand, it will help to improve the enthusiasm of high-quality enterprises for mergers and acquisitions, obtain high-quality assets through refinancing on the basis of controllable liabilities, and at the same time replenish and expand capital to achieve a rapid breakthrough in scale.
Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Division of the Central Reference Institute, said that the policy proposed to allow qualified real estate enterprises to restructure and go public, and the target of restructuring was listed companies in the real estate industry, which would speed up the restructuring of listed real estate enterprises, speed up the resolution of real estate risks and speed up the clearing of real estate risks. It will also support construction enterprises and accelerate the integration of real estate enterprises with upstream and downstream construction enterprises and decoration enterprises.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that it is clear here that a loose policy has been implemented for the reorganization and listing of housing enterprises, especially for issuing shares or paying cash to purchase housing-related assets. It has a good advantage for current thunderstorm enterprises and high-quality housing enterprises. Among them, mining and explosion enterprises can straighten out the debt relationship through this reorganization and listing, and for high-quality housing enterprises, they have the opportunity to acquire or control such enterprises.
Second, the refinancing of listed real estate enterprises and listed companies involved in housing should be resumed. Listed real estate enterprises are allowed to refinance in a non-public way, and the raised funds are guided to be used for real estate business supported by policies, including real estate projects related to "protecting buildings and people's livelihood", affordable housing, shantytown renovation or resettlement housing construction in old city renovation, as well as supplementary liquidity and debt repayment that meet the requirements of refinancing policies of listed companies. Other listed companies involved in housing enterprises are allowed to refinance, and the funds raised by refinancing need to be invested in the main business.
Yan Yuejin said that refinancing is an important financing method for listed companies after IPO. It does not rule out the introduction of state-owned enterprises and other funds to hold shares, and enhance the financial strength and risk resistance of housing enterprises.
Ma Hong, a senior researcher at Trust Investment Research Institute, said that there were almost no cases of equity financing in the previous two years. This policy adjustment may mean that in the next stage, as one of the direct financing tools, equity financing will resume its function. It is expected that the source of funds for housing enterprises will continue to improve.
Third, adjust and improve the overseas listing policy of real estate enterprises. In line with the domestic A-share policy, resume the refinancing of H-share listed companies with real estate as their main business; Re-financing of other H-share listed companies involved in housing that resume non-real estate business.
In response to this article, Liu Shui said that it shows that the regulatory authorities support the refinancing of H-share listed housing enterprises, promote the recovery of housing enterprises' financing, ease the liquidity tension of housing enterprises, and prevent the risks of housing enterprises from continuing to expand.
Fourth, further play the role of REITs in revitalizing the stock assets of housing enterprises. Together with relevant parties, we will step up efforts to promote the normal issuance of affordable rental housing REITs and strive to create a "affordable housing sector" in the REITs market. Encourage high-quality real estate enterprises to rely on qualified assets such as warehousing, logistics and industrial parks to issue infrastructure REITs, or as additional assets of listed infrastructure REITs.
Zhu Jin said that the role of REITs and private equity funds should be strengthened to revitalize the stock assets of housing enterprises. The policy focuses on promoting the development of rental housing and infrastructure REITs, and re-emphasizes the expansion of listed REITs. In addition, it is suggested to develop real estate private equity fund, which can not only invest in infrastructure, but also invest in existing residential real estate and commercial real estate. This policy is helpful to introduce new funds for the current residential and commercial real estate, revitalize the existing operating real estate of housing enterprises, and contribute to the healthy development of the industry.
Yan Yuejin analyzed that how to revitalize the projects of some housing enterprises with REITs in the future, and at the same time as the housing of affordable rental housing, is something that all localities need to study. At least at present, some cities hope to use it to buy affordable rental housing in housing assets of housing enterprises. Relevant REITs financial policies also need to be accelerated.
Ma Hong said that the central bank has made it clear that housing lease credit is not included in the assessment index of centralized management of real estate loans. The idea of "lease and purchase at the same time" put forward by the 20th National Congress means that financial institutions will increase the use of financial instruments such as housing lease loans and real estate affordable rental houses REITs in the future, and give full play to the long-term supporting role of innovative financial instruments in the real estate market.
Fifth, actively play the role of private equity investment funds. Piloting private real estate investment funds, allowing qualified private fund managers to set up private real estate investment funds, introducing institutional funds, investing in existing residential real estate, commercial real estate and infrastructure, promoting real estate enterprises to revitalize operating real estate and exploring new development models.
LP think tank, a third-party organization, commented that it is an important trend to change from single management of equity investment funds to diversified alternative asset management institutions from the development path of overseas PE(PrivateEquity) institutions. Real estate private equity fund is an important asset category among alternative assets. For example, a quarter of the trillion-dollar alternative assets managed by Blackstone belong to real estate private equity funds, which is also an asset category with relatively stable historical performance returns. This kind of real estate private equity fund has positive financing function and value discovery function for existing houses, commercial real estate, infrastructure and urban renewal. It is expected that the CSRC will launch a pilot project of private real estate funds, which will open an era of benign and orderly development of local private real estate funds in China.
165438+1On October 28th, china securities journal learned from a person close to the supervisory level that the CSRC is working with the fund industry association to draft detailed rules for the filing of real estate private equity investment funds, which will be launched as soon as possible. At that time, qualified private equity fund managers can apply for pilot projects.
Ma Hong believes that giving full play to the role of private equity funds and launching a pilot project of real estate private equity investment funds may indicate that some domestic private equity funds may refer to the operation mode of mature asset management companies (AMC) at home and abroad to develop Nugget stock real estate projects, promote real estate enterprises to revitalize operating real estate and consolidate the cash flow of related housing enterprises.
"The third arrow has been shot."
A real estate enterprise financial person told this newspaper, "I understand this is the third arrow". Yan Yuejin also said that this policy has clarified "supporting equity financing of real estate enterprises", which is essentially that the third arrow has been shot.
Zhu Jin said that the "third arrow" landed and financial support for real estate increased. Following165438+1October 2 1, President Yi Huiman expressed his support for housing-related enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions and supporting financing, and supported a certain proportion of housing-related enterprises to carry out equity financing. Today, real estate equity financing was officially liberalized. Within a month, the "three arrows" landed one after another, and the financial support for real estate continued to increase, which helped promote the healthy and stable development of the industry.
Han Yizhiku said that the statement of the CSRC to resume domestic and overseas equity financing channels is the long-awaited "third arrow" in the market. The spokesman also made it clear that the funds can be used not only for "property protection", but also for the main business, which can be used to supplement liquidity, repay debts, mergers and acquisitions, etc. It can be said that private housing enterprises that have been short of funds ushered in a "breathing period" at the end of the year, especially compared with the valuation of the real estate sector in the opening period of the last round of equity financing. However, equity financing is a more market-oriented behavior. In the current market environment, it remains to be seen whether the capital of enterprises that have breached the contract will be recognized.
Jaco, Dean of the Branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, also said that in the face of the external environment with increasing uncertainty and the continuous downward pressure of the real estate market, the "second arrow" of real estate enterprises was launched intensively this month, but it is still difficult for the real estate industry to tide over the difficulties quickly by relying solely on debt financing, so the "third arrow" will be accelerated. The CSRC decided to adjust and optimize five measures in equity financing, which is of great significance to real estate enterprises.
According to Jaco's analysis, from the specific implementation level, it is more flexible to allow private financing of listed real estate enterprises, and the uses of financing finance are also widely expressed, mainly involving the construction of projects, which can be used for debt repayment, which will be very direct for alleviating the debt pressure of real estate enterprises. At the same time, for the refinancing of housing-related listing, it is relatively limited to explicitly require investment in the main business, but from the reality, the impact on such listed companies is relatively small.
The real estate policy is close to the "most relaxed period in history", and the market is expected to gradually stabilize in early 2023.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the real estate industry continues to decline, and various real estate policies are close to the most relaxed period in history. Restoring the refinancing of listed real estate enterprises is an important policy easing.
From June 1 to June 10 this year, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises1254.8 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year. Among them, domestic loans1478.6 billion yuan, down by 26.6%; The utilization of foreign capital was 6.2 billion yuan, down13.5%; Self-raised funds were 4,485.6 billion yuan, down by 65,438+04.8%; Deposit and advance payment were 4 1, 04 1 100 million yuan, down by 33.8%; Personal mortgage loan was 2 billion/kloc-0.5 billion yuan, down by 24.5%.
Zhang Dawei said that overall, the real estate industry is seriously ischemic. Recently, there are more and more easing policies for real estate. Compared with the previous easing, the main direction is to tilt buyers and reduce the pressure on buyers to enter the market. Recently, many policies have begun to loosen housing enterprises, stabilize their cash flow and start to save their capital chain.
Zhang Dawei said that, generally speaking, the problems in the real estate market at present are buyers' ability to pay and their confidence in the market prospect. The recent policy will indeed have a positive effect on the market, but it is expected that it will take some time for the market to bottom out. Under the influence of a series of heavy policies in June 5438+065438+ 10, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in early 2023.
Han Yizhiku said that looking back at June 5438+0 1, supply-side policies were introduced one after another, and financing could solve short-term emergencies. However, to resolve the capital crisis and restore enterprise confidence, it is still necessary to pay back the money, and the subsequent adjustment of the demand side will be more worthy of attention.