On October 15th, 221, the People's Bank of China held a press conference on financial statistics for the third quarter of 221. Ruan Jianhong, director of the Survey and Statistics Department and spokesperson, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department, and Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department attended and answered questions from reporters. Luo Yanfeng, deputy director and spokesperson of the General Office of the People's Bank of China, presided over the press conference. The following is a written record:
Luo Yanfeng: Good afternoon, media friends. Welcome to today's third quarter financial statistics conference.
On October 13th, the People's Bank of China released the financial statistics of the third quarter in official website and Guanwei. After the data was released, all sectors of society were very concerned about the economic situation in the third quarter and the trend of monetary policy in the next stage, hoping to get an interpretation from the central bank. Today, we are pleased to invite Ms. Ruan Jianhong, director and spokesperson of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, Mr. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department, and Mr. Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department, to attend today's press conference to answer your concerns.
please start asking questions.
Central Radio and Television Station (Voice of Central Broadcasting Economy): After the release of the data in the third quarter, what are the overall characteristics of the current financial operation?
Ruan Jianhong: Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has resolutely implemented the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, maintained a prudent monetary policy that is flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, and stable, maintained a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and enhanced the stability of total credit growth. From the data of the third quarter, the current financial operation is generally stable, the total financial volume is growing steadily, the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale is basically matched with the nominal economic growth rate, and the macro leverage ratio remains stable.
first, the total financial volume grew steadily, and the liquidity was reasonable and abundant. The financial system insists on putting the service of the real economy in a more prominent position, maintaining the steady growth of the total financial volume and maintaining the overall stability of the economy. At the end of September, the balance of M2 was 234.28 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, .1 percentage point higher than the end of last month, and the balance of social financing scale was 38.5 trillion yuan, up 1% year-on-year and .3 percentage point lower than the end of last month. The growth rate of M2 and social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate.
second, the total amount of credit increased steadily. Since the beginning of this year, the prudent monetary policy has maintained continuity, stability and sustainability, and enhanced the stability of total credit growth. In the first three quarters, new RMB loans amounted to 16.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 462.4 billion yuan over the same period of last year. At the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 189.46 trillion yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year, .2 percentage points lower than the end of last month, and remained basically stable.
Third, the macro leverage ratio is basically stable. Since the beginning of this year, China has promoted epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development as a whole, effectively implemented macro policies, continued the trend of economic recovery, steadily increased the total financial volume, and maintained a basically stable macro leverage ratio. In the first half of this year, China's macro leverage ratio was 274.9%, which was 4.5 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. The leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises, government and household departments dropped by 3.1, 1 and .4 percentage points respectively, all of which declined to varying degrees. Judging from the economic recovery and debt growth in the third quarter, it is expected that the macro leverage ratio will remain basically stable in the third quarter.
shanghai securities news: What are the structural characteristics of the growth of social financing scale in the first three quarters?
Ruan Jianhong: In the first three quarters, the scale of social financing increased by 24.75 trillion yuan, which was 4.87 trillion yuan less than the same period of last year and 4.14 trillion yuan more than the same period of 219. Generally speaking, the financial support for the real economy is in line with economic development. In terms of structure:
First, financial institutions' credit support for the real economy has not diminished. In the first three quarters, RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy increased by 16.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 14 billion yuan over the same period of last year.
Second, the financing of government bonds and corporate bonds has returned to normal, and stock financing has increased year-on-year. The net financing of government bonds in the first three quarters was 4.42 trillion yuan, 2.32 trillion yuan less than the same period of last year and 427.6 billion yuan more than the same period of 219. The net financing of corporate bonds in the first three quarters was 2.43 trillion yuan, 1.66 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year, which was basically the same as the same period of 219. In the first three quarters, the domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 814.2 billion yuan, 24.3 billion yuan more than the same period of last year.
Third, off-balance sheet financing has decreased a lot. In the first three quarters, the off-balance sheet financing of entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 trillion yuan.
American International Market News Agency: With the increasingly obvious process of the Fed's downsizing, I would like to ask how China's macro policies, especially monetary policies, should respond. Thank you.
Sun Guofeng: We have noticed the recent statement of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. The market expects that the Federal Reserve may start to reduce its bond purchases before the end of this year. From China's point of view, since the response to the epidemic in 22, we have implemented a normal monetary policy. After May 22, the monetary policy has gradually returned to normal, and this year has basically returned to the normal state before the epidemic. Since the beginning of this year, taking into account the changes in the international economic and financial market environment and the possible monetary policy adjustments in major economies, the People's Bank of China has made forward-looking policy arrangements, reducing the possible spillover impact of central bank policy adjustments in developed economies such as the Federal Reserve. At present, China's financial market is running smoothly, and the yield of 1-year treasury bonds is around 2.95%, which is generally at a low level. Cross-border capital flows are basically balanced, and the RMB exchange rate floats in both directions, maintaining basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level. At the end of September, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.49 yuan, an appreciation of .6% compared with the end of 22. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index appreciated by 5% compared with the end of 22.
in the next stage, a prudent monetary policy will be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, with self-centered and stable words as the first priority, making cross-cycle adjustments and making overall consideration of policy convergence this year and next. The People's Bank of China will comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity and enhance the stability of total credit growth. Continue to release the effectiveness of LPR reform, stabilize the debt cost of banks, and promote the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises to stabilize and decline. Give full play to the role of structural monetary policy tools, guide financial institutions to increase their support for small and medium-sized enterprises, green development and other key areas and weak links, enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, play the role of exchange rate adjustment macro-economy and balance of payments automatic stabilizer, guide market participants to establish a risk-neutral concept, strengthen macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows, and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
nihon keizai shimbun: this year's China financial stability report emphasizes that "the management system of real estate loan concentration has entered the stage of normal implementation". Recently, the property market in many cities has cooled down. Economic growth is also slowing down. Excuse me, if the economic growth slows down further in the future, is it possible for the central bank to temporarily relax the real estate credit management?
Zou Lan: Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central government has insisted that houses should be used for living, not for speculation, and that real estate should not be used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. It has also insisted on stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, and accelerated the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism. While preventing and resolving the "grey rhinoceros" risk of real estate and realizing the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, it has also effectively promoted the economic restructuring and high-quality development in China, and reduced the overall financial risk level. The central government's strategy and policy on real estate regulation and control is our long-term follow-up to do a good job in real estate finance.
From the data, in the first three quarters of this year, the amount of personal housing loans remained stable, which basically matched the sales amount of commercial housing in the same period. Among them, housing prices in a few cities have risen too fast, personal housing loans are subject to some constraints, and the rate of housing price increase has been suppressed. After housing prices stabilize, the relationship between supply and demand of mortgage loans in these cities will also return to normal. Recently, the risks of individual large-scale housing enterprises have been exposed, the risk appetite of financial institutions for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, and there has been a consistent contraction behavior, and the growth rate of real estate development loans has dropped significantly. This short-term overreaction is a normal market phenomenon. After Baoshang Bank went out of danger in 219 and Yongmei and Brilliance defaulted on their debts last year, similar phenomena occurred in the interbank market and credit bond market.
in addition, some financial institutions also have some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of 3 pilot housing enterprises, which require that the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red-file" enterprises should not be increased, which is misunderstood as that banks are not allowed to issue new development loans, and after the enterprises repay the loans with sales proceeds, the newly started projects that should have been reasonably supported can not get loans, which also causes some enterprises' capital chains to be tight to some extent.
In view of these situations, the People's Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a symposium on real estate finance at the end of September to guide major banks to accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the smooth and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Securities Times: There was a large-scale MLF due in the fourth quarter. How will the central bank respond to this pressure of maturity? And how does the central bank predict whether the liquidity in the fourth quarter will face greater fluctuations? Including with the recent reduction of the Federal Reserve's bond purchase plan, have you observed the pressure of capital outflow in China?
Sun Guofeng: Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has implemented a prudent monetary policy, and comprehensively used various monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction, refinancing, rediscount, medium-term lending facilities, and open market operations to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and a stable interest rate in the money market. In the first nine months of this year, the average repo rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the inter-bank market was 2.18%, which was very close to the 7-day reverse repo rate of the central bank's open market operation of 2.2%.
in the fourth quarter, liquidity in the banking system's supply and demand will remain basically balanced, and there will be no big fluctuation. For the phased influencing factors such as the issuance of government bonds, tax payment and the maturity of medium-term lending facilities, the People's Bank of China will comprehensively consider the liquidity situation and the needs of financial institutions, flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as medium-term lending facilities and open market operations, timely and appropriately put in liquidity with different maturities, smooth out short-term fluctuations, meet the reasonable capital needs of financial institutions, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. At the same time, the implementation of structural monetary policy tools will also play a certain role in increasing the total liquidity.
Recently, the People's Bank of China has also promoted the reform of the operation mode of the Standing Loan Facility (SLF) to realize the electronic operation of the whole process in an orderly manner, which is conducive to improving the operation efficiency of the SLF, stabilizing market expectations, enhancing the stability of liquidity in the banking system and maintaining the smooth operation of interest rates in the money market.
In recent years, the People's Bank of China has improved the framework of liquidity and market interest rate regulation, improved the transparency of operation, stabilized market expectations through monetary policy operation and expectation management, effectively reduced the preventive liquidity demand of financial institutions, and made the total liquidity and excess reserve ratio needed to maintain the smooth operation of money market interest rates continue to decline. Subsequently, the People's Bank of China will continue to pay close attention to various factors affecting liquidity supply and demand, maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, guide the money market interest rate to run smoothly around the central bank's open market operating interest rate, and provide a good liquidity environment for high-quality economic development.
Bloomberg News Agency: The debt crisis of Evergrande Group has aroused widespread concern among investors at home and abroad. We would like to ask the Bank of China how to view the credit risks faced by real estate enterprises. Are you worried that it will lead to systemic risks?
Zou Lan: The total assets of Evergrande Group exceed 2 trillion yuan, of which real estate development projects account for about 6%, involving more than 1, project subsidiaries as independent legal persons. In recent years, this company has been poorly managed and failed to operate prudently according to the changes in market situation. Instead, it has blindly diversified and expanded, resulting in serious deterioration of operating and financial indicators, and finally risks broke out.
among the total liabilities of Evergrande, financial liabilities account for less than one third. Creditors are also scattered, and the risk exposure of a single financial institution is not large. On the whole, its risk spillover to the financial industry is controllable.
at present, relevant departments and local governments are carrying out risk disposal and resolution according to the principles of rule of law and marketization, urging Evergrande Group to intensify asset disposal, speed up the restoration of project construction and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. In this process, the financial department will cooperate with the housing and urban-rural construction departments and local governments to provide financial support for the project to resume work.
The problem of Evergrande Group is an individual phenomenon in the real estate industry. After the macro-control of real estate in recent years, especially after the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, the land price, house price and expectation of the domestic real estate market remain stable, most real estate enterprises operate steadily, with good financial indicators, and the real estate industry is generally healthy.
caixin: I'd like to ask how the supporting tools for carbon emission reduction are being created. When and in what form is it expected to land?
Sun Guofeng: Everyone is very concerned about carbon emission reduction support tools. According to the deployment of the the State Council executive meeting, the People's Bank of China is now stepping up the establishment of carbon emission reduction support tools. The carbon emission reduction support tool is a structural monetary policy tool created to help achieve the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. The People's Bank of China provides low-cost funds and supports financial institutions to provide preferential interest rate financing for key projects with significant carbon emission reduction effects. To ensure accuracy, the carbon emission reduction support tool supports three key areas: clean energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and carbon emission reduction technology. In order to ensure the direct access, the direct access mechanism is adopted. Financial institutions make their own decisions at their own risk, and provide loans to enterprises in key areas of carbon emission reduction. After that, they can apply to the People's Bank of China for financial support of carbon emission reduction support tools, and publicly disclose relevant information on carbon emission reduction according to the requirements of the People's Bank of China and accept social supervision. The People's Bank of China will promote the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools in a steady and orderly manner, pay attention to the leverage effect, and incite more social funds to promote carbon emission reduction.
it should be emphasized that carbon emission reduction support tools support key areas of carbon emission reduction by "adding" and supporting investment and construction in key areas such as clean energy, so as to increase the overall energy supply capacity, rather than "subtracting". Financial institutions should still give reasonable credit support to coal-fired power plants, coal enterprises and projects in accordance with the principles of marketization, rule of law and commercialization, and should not blindly lend and cut off loans, so as to give full play to the supporting role of finance in energy security and supply protection and green and low-carbon transformation.
Xinhua News Agency: What new changes have taken place in the credit structure in the third quarter? What are the new highlights?
Ruan Jianhong: The People's Bank of China conscientiously implements the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, flexibly uses various policy tools, and continuously guides financial institutions to increase financial support for key areas of the national economy. From the actual investment of loans, at the end of September, the balance of medium and long-term loans of all industries was 67.46 trillion yuan, up 15% year-on-year. This growth rate is 3.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all local and foreign currency loans in the same period. The balance of medium and long-term loans in manufacturing, infrastructure and service industries excluding real estate increased by 37.8%, 16.4% and 17.2% respectively, which were 2.6, 2.2 and .3 percentage points higher than the end of last year, respectively, and maintained a relatively fast growth rate.
judging from the financing situation of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises, the loans of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprises maintained a high growth trend, and continued to maintain the characteristics of "increasing the quantity, expanding the area, reducing the price and optimizing the structure". In terms of volume increase, at the end of September, the balance of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans increased by 27.4% year-on-year, 15.5% higher than the growth rate of various loans.