Regarding the solution, Yang Kaisheng made four suggestions:
First, adhere to rectification: we must face all employees and strictly implement regulatory requirements;
Second, emotional guidance: avoid excessive panic, but also prevent excessive optimism after the rebound;
Third, lender education: risk warning, breaking rigid communication, necessity of rectification, marketing identification;
Fourth, severely punish vicious breach of contract: for the platform of vicious breach of contract, hell pay, for example.
The following is the full text of the speech, without pictures:
Yang Kaisheng: Good morning, dear friends, distinguished guests and distinguished President Dong Rong. Today, I want to discuss a hot topic, that is, there seems to be a problem with the P2P platform in the previous stage, which some people describe as "thunderstorm". I want to discuss this problem with you. Today I want to talk about three issues.
First, the recent emergence of the problem platform is related to some negative emotions in our media and society.
Secondly, I just want to talk about the reasons why these problems have appeared recently. Because many friends say that the regulatory measures are too strong, some regulatory policies overlap with each other, and dealing with risks leads to risks, etc., there are also these arguments. Frankly speaking, I don't quite agree with this view, so I also want to talk about my thoughts.
Third, if this industry wants to continue to develop in the next step, it must be rectified and cracked down, and it must adhere to healthy development. I want to talk about these three issues.
You can look at this picture. What does this picture mean? This paper describes the trend chart of closed platform and transformation platform from 20 15 10 to July. Of course, what we usually call problems with the problem platform mainly refers to the difficulty in withdrawing cash, the operator running away, or the intervention of the judicial department's economic investigation department. These three problems boil down to "problem platform". Generally speaking, the involvement of the judicial department and the economic investigation department is still relatively small, so the main problem platform mentioned here mainly refers to the difficulty of withdrawing cash or running away. Bar charts mainly reflect the difficulties in withdrawing cash, running away or closing down due to various reasons.
Compared with the number of platforms still operating normally in the same period, the number of closed line charts in the current month ranged from 20 15 to 1 until last month. From the middle, we can see that there are several obvious time nodes, which you can care about.
First of all, in the middle of 20 15, more platforms began to run. The irresponsible behavior or malicious breach of contract of platform operators began to attract the attention and worry of the whole society and industry. 20 15, the number began to increase. Let's recall that many people cheered for the first fiscal year of the Internet. In fact, this situation only began to appear in two years: 20 13. At the end of 20 15, the e-rental event appeared. So far, whether e-rental treasure belongs to P2P financial platform is still controversial. Since 20 15, people began to worry about this problem due to the emergence of the e-rental event, and the number of platforms with problems obviously began to increase. It lasted until 20 16 years, especially after August, the number of problem platforms began to increase significantly.
However, it can also be noted that after 20 16 years, the number of vicious defaults will be reduced at this time. Operators choose to withdraw from the market independently or in a more orderly way. This is an important feature. Later, I want to talk about the reasons and how we look at this problem.
At the third or fourth time node, we should pay more attention to the fact that the number of problem platforms has increased significantly since this year, especially in June and July today. So some people call it the "thunderstorm tide" of P2P. It should be said that negative emotions or panic are more intense. July 20 18, the number of problem platforms in a single month far exceeds that in any month, which is very eye-catching. The momentum of benign exit from the market and orderly exit from the market seems to be interrupted, and more people choose to run away and other vicious defaults.
The arrival of this round of "thunderstorm tide" seems to coincide with the platform filing time limit we mentioned earlier, so some people say that this is because of the filing requirements and caused panic, so it led to running away, and some people say so. In fact, what I want to say below seems to be insufficient.
What does the picture below mean? It reflects the trend chart of the transaction volume of peer-to-peer lending and its balance to be repaid before this thunderstorm in the three years from 20 15 10 to July this year. The blue bar chart reflects the monthly turnover of each stage. The orange line chart shows the amount to be repaid. What does this picture tell us? We can go and have a look. Although two rounds of relatively large-scale platform problems were exposed in the middle of 20 15 and 20 16, in the past two years or three years, their transaction volume and outstanding balance have all increased, or in other words, P2P peer-to-peer lending business has developed rapidly despite some problems in the past two years.
In the past year, its turnover began to decline continuously, especially in the past three months, its outstanding balance dropped sharply. What does this mean? It seems that during this period, the whole industry or market has a strong anxiety, or more positively, the whole investors, the public and the regulatory authorities have a new understanding or a new improvement on the risk of P2P peer-to-peer lending. In other words, when these problems appeared in the early stage, people were not so sensitive to its risks, but were constantly increasing their investment.
What is this picture? Reflects an emotion. This is the situation that everyone discussed some problem platforms in the online loan home forum, or some people paid more attention to it. He exposed some figures of what went wrong with some platforms in advance. Since the beginning of this year, especially in July, the amount of discussion on exposure has risen sharply. Of course, some media surveys also said that some borrowers deliberately sprinkled some there and borrowed money through the platform. The situation of this platform is even sometimes a rumor about what this platform is like. They want these platforms to close down, thinking that after these platforms close down, they can not repay the loans. There is also such a phenomenon. How many such phenomena are there? I think there is still a lack of data support, but some media have said so. This is one of the problems since July 2065438+2005, and his attention to this problem has reached a new high.
Of course, the situation of a platform and a platform forum is sometimes not enough to explain the problem. You can look at another index developed by Digital Finance Center of National Development Research Institute of Peking University. The National Development Institute of the United States has launched a financial technology sentiment index. It should be said that this index is more than the number of posts on a certain forum I just mentioned. Whether there are more scoldings or more affirmations on a certain forum means more problems. It has nothing to do with the number of posts in a forum. What happened to them? After using 654.38+07 million media articles since 2065.438+03, two indexes are set for these articles, namely the relationship index and the positive and negative sentiment index. The so-called attention index of 2065,438+03 is set to 65,438+000, and the average positive and negative sentiment index of July 2065,438+06 is set to zero. We can see that in July of 20 18, its attention index dropped by 47%. It has reached the recent low point 168, which is the concern index of the National Development Institute. Then sentiment index hit a record low of-959. This is an obvious or serious situation at two time points. In other words, in the media, social media's attention to P2P and emotional situation are two numbers. Of course, we can see that after August, due to some measures, it has rebounded, but it should be said that its sentiment index is still at a historical low.
After reading this picture, I think we seem to have to think about a problem, that is, there are more and more problems in the problem platform, which affects people's attention to P2P, affects people's praise of P2P network credit platform, or negative public opinion leads to market instability, leading to more problems in the platform. Or cause and effect each other. I think we can actually think about the relationship in this picture. I think the first thing to say is that there are many problems in reality that affect or influence people's emotions, which is probably the main thing. Of course, everything is complementary. After some problems appear, if you hype more and spread more panic, it will definitely aggravate the problem. First of all, the existence of problems leads to negative emotions.
This is the cause of the problem. I'm afraid it should be said that it should not be attributed to strengthening supervision, or it should not be simply attributed to strengthening supervision. As I said just now, many friends or some friends are too strict in supervision, which leads to the vicious exit of the platform. I think this view is a bit biased. Looking back, every time the climax of the problem platform, we have seen several points. In fact, when there are problems concentrated on its platform, you actually analyze them, all of which are risks but gathered to a certain extent. There have been many reactions in the market, and before the regulatory measures appeared, the regulatory authorities had further realized it, not the other way around. We can see what time it is. 20 15 12, the first regulatory opinion was issued, which was the interim measures for P2P regulatory rules, clarifying that P2P platforms insisted on information intermediary and could not be credit intermediary. It requires a pool of funds, fund mismatch and so on. It is strictly forbidden, and it also puts forward the principle of giving priority to a small amount of dispersion. Frankly speaking, after the "20 15" document came out, many people didn't really take it seriously, didn't take it seriously, didn't implement it, and didn't implement it. Frankly speaking, they were not very serious at that time.
By August 20 16, some documents were further issued, such as the Interim Measures for the Management of Business Activities of Information Intermediaries in Personal-to-Personal Lending, which further emphasized the need to adhere to the positioning of information intermediaries. Moreover, the funds must be deposited in the bank, and there are quantitative requirements, such as 200,000 natural persons, 1 10,000 legal persons, etc. At the end of June, 1965, at 438+08, an admission notice was issued, and filing requirements were put forward.
In 20 16, there were more intermediate platforms, but fewer forms of vicious exit. Most of them were relatively orderly exits chosen by operators at that time, so the mood of the whole market at that time should be said to be at least more stable than now, and the losses of participants were still relatively limited. But then it was different. This year's situation is different. So it deserves our attention.
This can also explain a problem, related to the requirements and problems of rectification. What's the problem? 65,438+04% in bank deposit, 22. 1% in ICP certification, 65,438+03% in association membership, whether the ownership is listed, etc. Although our regulatory measures have repeatedly emphasized the need for depository and ICP certification, this certification is a necessary qualification for any Internet organization to operate normally. But after doing so, it is clear that regulatory requirements can't prevent it from going wrong. However, some regulatory requirements that are difficult to meet, or that the technical inspection is still difficult, or that the consciousness of everyone's implementation is not high enough, have not been met. For example, the principle of small amount dispersion, such as the principle that a single legal person can't borrow more than how much, and the principle that a single natural person can't borrow more than how much have not been implemented, which is an important reason for the problem. There is something wrong with a platform company. He said that the company's single corporate loan on this platform reached 24 million, far exceeding the limit of10 million. In fact, he counted more than 20 legal persons at that time, so these problems were not solved. I think it is still difficult to control this risk in the future and continue to control it in a "storm" way.
I'm afraid there are other reasons besides the sense of innovation. Here are some problems of provinces and cities with active economic development and rapid development of Internet finance. There are Beijing, Shandong, Zhejiang and so on. You can see where there are many problems.
The enterprises between some platforms are interrelated, or the degree of correlation is relatively high, or there are many related transactions, which also leads to important problems in risk. You are like a problem platform that appeared in the previous stage, a relatively large problem platform, called Baibai Finance. After the inquiry, we can actually see that there are ten companies engaged in internet finance with it, which is highly related to it. There are mutual capital equity relations and investment relations, and it is precisely these ten companies that thundered almost at the same time in July this year, and there were problems at the same time. It seems that the problems of corporate governance mechanism and corporate governance mechanism mentioned again and again need to be paid attention not only to traditional enterprises, but also to Internet enterprises. We should also strengthen the construction of corporate governance mechanism and corporate governance mechanism.
So I think the main reason for the problem is that the rectification task has not been completed, the phenomenon of mismatch and just exchange, and the phenomenon of excessive loan scale has not been completely reversed, so this is the reason for the problem this time. Second, the overall economic downturn, the expectations of borrowers, as an information intermediary is not very good, the credit intermediary here has been interrupted. There is also a subjective reason, that is, blindly believe in the so-called big data technology or deliberately advocate your ability to collect, organize and use data, and generalize this model. These reasons can be analyzed from many aspects.
The next healthy development must adhere to the direction of rectification, and must fully implement a series of regulatory requirements and rectification measures issued by the regulatory authorities and the central bank in the previous stage, including our Internet Finance Association.
Furthermore, emotions should also be guided. Don't do anything to add fuel to the fire. Of course, we should also pay attention to emotional guidance. After the situation is a little better, we should not be overly optimistic. This also needs attention.
For the education of investors and lenders, only by solving the educational problems in place and improving the market order can there be an important foundation. That's all I'm saying. Thank you!