On December 11, 2020, the "2021 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit" hosted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers was held at the Beijing Automobile Museum.

This summit is jointly organized by the Market and Trade Committee of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Automobile Media All Media. The China Automotive Strategic Development Research Center of Tianjin University and the Beijing Automobile Museum serve as supporting units and provide strong support for the convening of this conference.

At the summit, Liu Xueyan, director of the Macroeconomic Situation Office of the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, delivered a keynote speech on "Analysis of the Economic Situation in 2020 and Outlook for This Year and Next Year."

The following is a transcript of the on-site speech: Liu Xueyan, director of the Macroeconomic Situation Office of the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission Liu Xueyan: It is an honor to be invited to participate in the 2021 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit hosted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers today.

The macroeconomic situation this year has attracted special attention. As we all know, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic since the beginning of the year, the economy was basically at a standstill in January and February. In the first quarter, investment grew by 16%, consumption grew by 19%, and the economy grew by 6.8% in the first quarter.

, it can be said to be a situation that has never appeared before.

Later, under the influence of a series of supportive policies and the gradual improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the economy gradually improved.

If I could sum up this year's macroeconomic situation in one word, I think it would be restoration, showing restoration month by month, quarter by quarter, industry by industry, and field by field.

Everyone has doubts about economic recovery. To what extent has the current economic recovery reached, and what level has supply and demand reached? I will give you an analysis from my own point of view for your reference.

Economic growth turned positive in a single quarter in the second quarter, and reached 4.9% in the third quarter, returning to about 80% of the previous year. However, this 80% recovery is not a comprehensive recovery. It shows structural characteristics.

From the perspective of industrial growth, the recovery speed is very fast. By July, industrial growth has exceeded the growth rate of the previous year. It was higher than the same period of the previous year for three consecutive months in August, September and October, reaching 6.9% in October.

From the perspective of the service industry, everyone has real experience. The overall recovery of the service industry is slightly slower than that of the industry. The service industry has probably recovered to about 60% of the previous year, but the gap between different industries in the service industry is also very large.

The growth rate of industries such as finance and information transmission has exceeded that of the previous year, but traditional service industries such as wholesale and retail, leasing business services, accommodation and catering are still experiencing negative growth. Overall, the recovery of the service industry is slower than that of industry.

From the perspective of economic recovery, we will definitely wonder what drives the relatively rapid recovery of the economy. Although we have not fully recovered to last year's level, in terms of global economic growth, China's economy is definitely outperforming. We have to take a look.

What's driving the economic recovery this year.

There are three main forces driving economic growth this year: The first is the rapid growth of infrastructure investment.

Everyone has also felt that some policies introduced this year, such as the expansion of the scale of special bonds, the issuance of special anti-epidemic government bonds, the accelerated allocation of budgetary funds, etc., have supported the rapid growth of infrastructure investment.

In what aspects is rapid growth reflected? Infrastructure investment this year is higher than the same period last year.

Infrastructure investment is connected upstream to the raw material production industry and equipment manufacturing industry, and downstream to equipment and vehicle consumption. In other words, the chain of infrastructure investment is very long, running through the entire chain from upstream raw materials to downstream consumption.

The second is the rapid growth of real estate investment.

Basically since the second quarter, real estate investment has exceeded the growth rate of the previous year, reaching more than 10%. Even in recent years, it has been a rapid growth.

It is similar to the infrastructure investment chain. Real estate investment is also connected upstream to the raw material industry, and downstream to the consumption of many real estate back-chains, such as the furniture industry, home appliance industry, construction and decoration industry, etc.

The third is the expansion of the economic scale of anti-epidemic.

Everyone has experienced it. On average, one mask is consumed every day. The consumption of disinfectant at home is much higher than last year. The rush to buy alcohol at the beginning of the year and so on are all included in the anti-epidemic consumption. This chain is connected to the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and the chemical raw material manufacturing industry.

, downwardly connected to the pharmaceutical consumption industry.

Three major driving forces drove the economy back from -6.8% to 4.9% growth in the third quarter. We can also see that the economic recovery is a structural recovery.

First, from the perspective of the industrial sector, the industrial recovery is mainly due to the relatively fast growth of the upstream raw material industry, while the recovery of the mid-stream and downstream industries is still relatively slow. You can take a look at the numbers.

The raw material industry’s growth rate was 4.7% in the second quarter, 6% in the third quarter, and 7.6% in October.

The second is the equipment manufacturing industry, which increased from 9.5% in the second quarter to 11.8% in the third quarter, which is very fast.

Third, chemical raw materials and chemical products are generally faster than pharmaceutical manufacturing and industry.

The second policy effect continues to appear.

First of all, from the demand side, infrastructure investment has been growing at a high speed, exceeding the previous growth rate. However, the growth rate of market-led private investment is still relatively low. There is a certain gap compared with the previous year. Including consumption is still lower than

Last year, the contribution of consumption to economic growth was significantly reduced. Last year, consumption contributed more than 58% to economic growth, but this year it was only 34%, a drop of almost 40%.