This article comes from Prism Deep Network, author: Sun Chunfang, and the title picture comes from Oriental IC. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is now a gold nugget coveted by various developers.
For real estate companies that have not previously invested heavily in the Greater Bay Area, if they want to enter the market to make money, they must first go to the dock of "local snake" Kaisa (01638.HK).
Such as Sunshine City.
On May 29, 2019, this Fujian real estate company and Kaisa signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Both parties plan to invest up to 4.5 billion yuan each to establish a joint venture to promote cooperation in the field of real estate development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and surrounding areas.
The reason why Sunshine City chose Kaisa is "because Kaisa and its related parties have been deeply involved in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its surrounding areas for many years, and have a good local reputation and related resources." Kaisa is a well-known "landlord" in the Greater Bay Area.
At the performance conference on March 26, 2019, it announced that it held old renovation reserve projects covering an area of ??approximately 30 million square meters (not included in land reserves), 99% of which were located in the Greater Bay Area, with a total value of approximately 1.8 trillion
Yuan.
This "landlord" came and went, which happened in the past four or five years.
In October 2014, Kaisa's chairman Guo Yingcheng fled to Hong Kong after being involved in the case. Almost all of Kaisa's properties were locked up by the local government, and he suddenly lost the source of sales funds, and a debt crisis broke out.
Sunac then moved in and planned mergers and acquisitions. Unexpectedly, Kaisa's financial report fraud was exposed. At that time, many people from Kaisa's executives to ordinary employees resigned.
They felt that there was no possibility of Kaisa and Guo Yingcheng coming back to life.
A miracle still happened: Sunac's merger failed, and Guo Yingcheng returned to Kaisa.
Subsequently, Kaisa repaired its relationship with the local government, reached a restructuring agreement with its creditors, and found a "scapegoat" for the problem of fraudulent financial reports.
After more than two years, the listed company resumed trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The crisis in 2014 had a profound impact on Guo Yingcheng, causing him to have a strong sense of urgency: a cunning rabbit will always burrow in three places.
Therefore, Guo Yingcheng frequently made moves in the capital market, controlling 6 listed companies, including A shares, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks.
Guo Yingcheng, like his hometown friend Zhang Jun, the financial CEO of Fude Holdings, invested in an insurance company, Kunlun Health, through various related transactions. Times changed, and he eventually withdrew due to the strict supervision of the former China Insurance Regulatory Commission.
The question is, is Kaisa really safe now?
After the release of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan, Pearl River Delta real estate companies headquartered in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, such as Logan and Agile, have taken up their banners and claimed to be the leaders in the Bay Area.
However, it will take time for the Bay Area to develop its planning and finally achieve integration. Currently, the real estate volume in the Bay Area is the largest, housing prices are the highest, and demand is strongest in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Guangzhou and Shenzhen, especially Shenzhen, have the largest land volume.
The source is the old reform, and only those who win the old reform can conquer the world.
No one dares to compete with Kaisa for the title of "King of Old Reform".
Kaisa's redevelopment data disclosed in its 2018 financial report shows that its redevelopment reserve projects cover an area of ??approximately 30 million square meters (not included in land reserves), 99% of which are located in the Greater Bay Area, corresponding to the largest number of projects owned by Kaisa in the Greater Bay Area.
There are 119 urban renewal projects, including 81 projects in Shenzhen, 12 projects in Guangzhou, and 16 projects in Zhongshan, with a total value of approximately 1.8 trillion yuan.
Guo Yingcheng said that the gross profit margin of urban renewal projects in Shenzhen is about 50%, that in Guangzhou is 40%, and that in cities such as Huizhou and Zhongshan is about 26%.
On average, the gross profit margin of Kaisa's renovation projects is over 20%.
An investment institution person in Hong Kong said that Kaisa's estimate of gross profit margin was too optimistic. The development progress of the old renovation project was not that fast, and its value was not that high.
But he admitted that even if the above-mentioned data is discounted, Kaisa's renovation projects and value are still much higher than other Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate companies.
Relying on the continuous release of old renovation projects, Kaisa achieved contracted sales of 70.06 billion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 57%; gross profit increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.1 billion yuan, and gross profit margin increased by 1.5% year-on-year to 29%; core net profit increased by 304%
% to 4.7 billion yuan; cash on hand was 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%.
A person close to Kaisa said that if real estate companies want to gain a foothold in the industry and have a say in financial institutions and financing, they must rely on scale. Kaisa's goal is to hit a contracted sales scale of 100 billion or even 200 billion yuan.
However, Kaisa's debt ratio is still relatively high. As of the end of 2018, its net debt ratio dropped from 300% at the end of 2017 to 236%.
Guo Yingcheng explained: The development cycle of each Kaisa renovation project is five to six years, which means that the accumulation period of funds for renovation is too long, and "everything becomes a liability after investment."