Do you know which country has the most aging population? Yes, it is China. So, do you know what social problems the aging population will bring? Are there any feasible countermeasures? Let's learn about this important social phenomenon with me!

China, the country with the most aging population.

The arrival of an aging society seems inevitable. Although the second child policy has been opened now, the high housing prices and living costs make it impossible for most families to have a second child. Moreover, with regard to children's quality education, it is obvious that the three generations of 80, 90 and 00 are under greater psychological pressure than the previous generation, but they have not received the correct family and social education. This kind of cost can only be borne by the children themselves.

How old is China now? How old will China be? Let's look at a set of data first: According to the statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of the National Bureau of Statistics in 20 14, among the population of China in 2013.67 million, there were 2120,000 elderly people aged 60 and above, accounting for15.5% of the total population; The population aged 65 and above is 65.438+0.37 billion, accounting for 654.38+0. 1%.

Generally speaking, when the population over 60 years old accounts for 10% of the total population in a country or region, or the population over 65 years old accounts for 7% of the total population, it means that the population of this country or region is in an aging society. According to this standard, China has entered the threshold of aging, and is in the stage of gradual deepening of aging.

Let's look at a set of changing data: the proportion of people over 65 years old to the total population of China is 4.9% in 1982, 5.6% in 1990, and 7. 1% in 2000, 20 10 and10. As can be seen from this set of data, the aging in China is accelerating. According to the research of Guo Zhigang, a demographer in Peking University, the proportion of the elderly population obtained from the survey data of population changes is even higher than the statistical bulletin, up to 2 percentage points higher.

Finally, let's look at the future of aging. According to the World Health Organization, by 2050, 35% of China's population will be over 60 years old, making it the most aging country in the world.

The process of population aging can be divided into: the population over 65 years old reaches 7% and enters aging; Reaching 14% is deep aging; Reaching 20% is super aging. From 1990 to 2035, in just 45 years, China has crossed all stages and become a super aging society.

According to Yang Yansui, director of Tsinghua University Employment and Social Security Research Center, China ranks first in the world in terms of aging: First, the number of elderly people ranks first in the world; Second, the aging rate ranks first in the world. In fact, no country in the world is aging as fast as China.

Where is the anomaly?

There is a view that the aging in China, like other countries in the world, is a normal stage of population development, so there is nothing to make a fuss about. Is that really the case? As can be seen from the population data, China's aging speed is amazing, which is by no means the normal state of population development. According to the population data published by the United Nations, from 1990 to 20 10, the average growth rate of the world's elderly population was 2.5%, and that of China was 3.3%. The aging process in developed countries lasts for decades to hundreds of years, such as France 1 15, the United States for 60 years, Germany for 40 years, and Japan for 24 years, while China only used 18 years.

Why is China aging so fast? According to demographic research, there are two key reasons to determine the degree of aging-life expectancy and fertility level. Japan is a typical example of rapid aging with complicated reasons, and longevity is one of them. In 20 10 year, the average life expectancy in Japan is 83 years, ranking first in the world for 20 consecutive years. However, China's life expectancy is only 76 years, and it has been in the middle and lower reaches of the world for a long time, and its influence in the aging process is relatively low.

Looking at the fertility rate, the answer is self-evident. Since 199 1, China's total fertility rate has been lower than the generation replacement level for 24 consecutive years. 20 10 the sixth census shows that the total fertility rate in China is only 1. 18. However, the relevant parties believe that the information is underreported. Wang Guangzhou, an expert in population forecasting at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, used the survey data of CFPS20 10 from Peking University and China Academy of Social Sciences to check the data of the sixth population census and determined that the total fertility rate was around 1.4.

The reporter learned that 1.4 is the total fertility rate recognized by most demographers at present. Some scholars believe that the actual total fertility rate may be lower than 1.4. According to demographic standards, the total fertility rate is lower than 1.5, which means that it has fallen into the low fertility trap.

Japanese demographer Yoshiyuki bluntly said that China's aging population is caused by the one-child policy. In fact, although urbanization and late childbearing have depressed the fertility rate, the one-child policy is still an important source of low fertility rate. According to the sixth master plan, in 20 10, the proportion of 0- 14-year-old adolescents in China is only 16.6%, which is 6.29 percentage points lower than that of ten years ago, and it is already at the level of serious declining birthrate. Children have fewer children, life expectancy increases, and aging naturally intensifies.

Compared with the generation replacement level of 2.2, the total fertility rate of 1.4 means that every 25-30 years, the number of births in each generation will shrink by 36%, and every two generations will shrink by 60%. It is strange that the number of births is decreasing so fast that the population of China is not old.

better late than never

The train of China's aging population has started. Due to the inertia of population reproduction and the reality of low fertility rate in China, the train will not stop, but will go faster and faster until it reaches the future of serious aging. In its report entitled "Asia's Structural Problems-Aging Asia", UBS Securities listed China as one of the countries with the greatest investment risks, among which the serious aging and its impact on consumption, economy and society were the key factors to be considered.

Aging will reduce the activity of an economy, and the superposition of aging and declining birthrate, that is, there are too few people in 0~ 14, means great pension risk. Old-age insurance will face the dilemma of "less people pay and more people receive money". The decrease of working-age population means the increase of the price of old-age services in the future, and it is difficult for the elderly to buy suitable services even if they have money.

These figures clearly reveal the reality. The question is, what can we do to slow down aging? Demographer He Yafu believes that population aging is not a pain, but a long-term pain. The main way to alleviate the aging population is to raise the total fertility rate to the level of intergenerational replacement. This requires a major adjustment of the birth policy. From having only two children to having only two children, the birth policy has been changing, but compared with the reality of the population crisis, it still lags behind.

In the eyes of many demographers, it is too late to adjust the birth policy. Li jianxin, a demographer from the Department of Sociology of Peking University, put forward in 1995 that the best time for the smooth transition of birth policy adjustment is around 2000. From 2000 to now 15, the adjustment of the single two-child birth policy is still suspended.

Li jianxin believes that the population policy needs to be formulated in advance, because its change itself is lagging behind, with certain inertia and periodicity. In fact, the total fertility rate of China's population dropped below the level of intergenerational replacement as early as 1990s, but the population continued to grow due to the inertia of population growth. From 20 12 to 20 14, the working-age population showed a net decrease and accelerated aging for three consecutive years. These early warning signals remind us that the population structure of China has been greatly distorted and the situation is very urgent.

Is it too late to mend? The answer to this question depends on how many sheep you have. But whether it's late or not, it's not too late. For the population of China, the aging has surged and it is difficult to reverse it. Under the new normal of population, we must adjust the birth policy with a new mentality, a new way of thinking and a new way of action. The fault is broken and its benefits are self-evident.

"If one day, I am in No Country for Old Men, please bury me in that spring", pop songs can be sung easily, but who wants to be lonely and helpless after a lifetime of hard work? Spring has come, who wants to die alone?

No one will really get old. Life is a process, and there is no need to repeat it. Just like a gust of wind blowing, flowers bloom and leaves fall, and life exists in the world in different forms, not necessarily in a human way. Microscopically, everything is the accumulation of atoms. Therefore, life is only a natural phenomenon, and we must fight against natural phenomena with human strength, hehe.