if the size problem is not solved, it will be 1 points the year after next.

The selling pressure and the suppression of the moving average above after the market rebounded continuously are relatively heavy. For the previous three consecutive trading days, both long and short sides have been fighting for the area near the annual line of 3745 points in a narrow range, but on the 7th, the impact failed, which led to a big drop in the take-out of the profit-making market. On the 8th, the institution attracted the short-selling funds in the previous period into the stock market to receive chips. However, under the circumstance of attracting some off-site funds, it did become cautious and continuous to sell chips. According to the daily status, today's large capital entry and exit indicators have been broken down and failed to hold. If they are not recovered at the close, a short-term downward trend will be inevitable. However, in the weekly status, the large capital entry and exit indicators have been compressed between two trend lines, and it is time for the market to choose the direction. The support point of 3567 cannot be recovered strongly in a short time. Institutions may choose to continue shorting, and the market may once again test the policy support of 3 points. When it was pulled up in the early stage, it was sold off. Now, we should pay attention to controlling positions). If the market replicates the continuous decline and strong rebound in the last bear market and hits the annual line, and finally ends in failure, it is necessary to be careful to accelerate the trend of falling to the bottom (no one wants this, but the operation of the stock market is independent of people's will, although the stock evaluation agencies have to be more cautious when building a good market outlook). Generally speaking, the rebound of the market is weaker than expected, and the market will only play if it breaks through strongly and stands firm for 3,8 market outlook, which will be a sign. The rebound is expected to continue to around 44. If we can't break through the rebound market, we may let the hopes predicted by stock critics of more than 5 points fail again.

The market (from the WVAD indicator, the indicator first crossed the zero line before the zero line was broken down on January 28th, which sent a buying signal to the mid-line investors. Although the indicator does not have to be fully believed, it can be used as one of the conditions for judging. Stock trading requires taking advantage of the trend. If the indicator continues to improve, it can be gradually increased to a half position. Last time, the indicator crossed the zero line, there was a strong rebound. Today, the indicator has reached a turning point. If it breaks through again, the indicator may deteriorate again, so we should pay attention to the risks. Moreover, if the market outlook drops rapidly again, it will be not optimistic. It is suggested to go out on rallies to avoid risks. When the huge amount of crazy funds brought by the reduction of stamp duty attacked the stock market, I thought that the lightening behavior of the main institutions should be slowed down. Although I still think that the institutions will continue to ship pulled, I don't think that they will ship on the same day. However, there was a wave of selling of huge funds in the intraday trading, which greatly suppressed the stock index and overwhelmed the huge crazy pursuit of high funds. Originally, it was thought that the size was not what it was, but now the result came out. According to the latest statistics, on the same day, the two major institutions, funds and insurance, greatly reduced their positions by as much as 31.7 billion, and the majority of retail investors once again became the main force chasing high. However, if the main funds accumulated in the past few days still maintain the selling trend on the 24th, from the 24th to the present, the institutional lightening is estimated to be close to 5 billion, and these chips once again fall into the hands of retail investors, and the main shipping situation does not stop, and the market outlook is still not optimistic. However, after HTC shares opened the down limit, small non-heavy shipments were made. According to statistics, Pingyuan Industrial and Yiduoyuan real estate reduced their holdings to 6.96 million shares and 7.5136 million shares respectively, and all of them were cleared. In one day, the total sales ratio reached 2.81%, far exceeding the last stipulation that the size of the goods can only be shipped by .99% a month. However, the punishment measures of the SSE are indeed symbolic punishment, which has no impact on the small non-profit who has cleared the warehouse. If this illegal behavior cannot be properly handled, there will not be a few "followers" in the future (this week, the size of Guanfu household was lifted by more than .99%, reaching 1.19%. TCL sold 1.1% on the sidelines, following the trend has appeared, which is a great psychological pressure for institutions), and a series of so-called favorable policies to limit the size of non-profit have become a loophole.

33 is still a turning point for bulls and bears. Investors can choose the point of lightening their positions on rallies according to the strength of the rebound, and when the market rebound is weak, it is the time to go out.

The supply and demand of funds determine the operation law of the stock market. If you buy more funds than you sell, it will rise, and if you sell more than you buy, it will fall. In a trend, if you sell more funds than you buy for a long time because of a big bad news, it will be a falling market for a long time.

The market soared on 24th, and most retail investors were above 5, points. This 1% increase is not enough to make these people flee. Some stocks have not increased by more than 2% up to now, and the rebound is relatively weak. Most deep-seated retail investors will not choose to sell, and the current amount can not simply be considered as one-sided understanding such as the entry of institutions. Now the game between new and old funds is very complicated, and new funds are forced to open positions. When the old fund is at a high position, it gradually spits out its chips and gradually reduces its position to avoid the pressure of the size. On the 24th, there was a wave of big losses on the disk. It is definitely not possible for those retail investors and hot money who speculate in the short term to lower the market so much in the face of the huge crazy funds brought by good news. It is not excluded that it is caused by the reduction of the size (now the data has come out, which is caused by the substantial reduction of positions of 31.7 billion by the two main forces of funds and insurance). People who are used to reading my posts know that I don't like superficial articles very much, but prefer to analyze the risks that most people don't want to admit, but I still want to say what I should say, which can be used as a reference for my friends, and I can choose whether to adopt it or not. This policy does not rule out the possibility that there may be other policies in the follow-up, but we still have to pay attention to the short-term risks. The real reason for this plunge is the huge non-lifting funds and huge additional issuance, not stamp duty. The non-lifting funds have far exceeded the capacity of the main funds, and the main funds can only choose to gradually reduce their positions, so their losses will be relatively small. Many people think that the reduction of stamp duty is extremely favorable enough to change the trajectory of the stock market and reverse the market, but this idea is a bit one-sided. It is very good that the incremental funds brought by stamp duty to the market are 2 billion yuan, while the amount of funds to be cashed this year is nearly 3 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the size of the main funds in the whole market, and this is just the beginning. The amount of funds lifted in 29 and 21 will enter the circulation market in nearly six times. And the size is the fundamental problem. The most important thing is that the market is supposed to digest the size rather than the government's own money to solve it. Even if the central government solves such a huge amount of money, it is hard for the central government to afford it!

Some experts have suggested that there are four aspects that the government can do to rescue the market.

First, reduce stamp duty, which has been done now, but it has also been analyzed that the amount of 2 billion yuan is not enough to support the size of nearly 3 trillion yuan.

Second, put the state-owned restricted shares under the social security fund, so that they can insist on value investment and long-term holding (there is a problem, the number of holders of state-owned restricted shares is large, and the amount of funds is huge. If If the social security fund is allowed to purchase such funds in the form of purchase, there is a problem that the money is far from enough. < P > Third, follow the example of the Hong Kong SAR Government in coping with the Asian financial crisis and set up a stabilization fund (it needs money) < P > Fourth, follow the example of the Federal Reserve in directly injecting capital into investment institutions such as securities companies to expand the market demand for stocks (it still needs money, and maintaining a stable social operation requires huge capital investment. It's unrealistic for the state to use fiscal revenue to save the stock market)

So before there are real measures and policies to solve the problem of size, the main force will see clearly. If the substantive problems are not solved, it will still lead to the disintegration of the main force funds under the gradual selling pressure of size. Since the rescue policy has come out, it is necessary to follow the trend in a short time. It is wise for ship pulled to invest heavily in the stock market for making money, not for being a long-term shareholder. Therefore, stamp duty is now suggested to be regarded as a good news for ship pulled, the main institution for the time being. Before the substantive policy comes out, the main institution will always be alert to the size of the market, and dare not make a big market. The bigger it is, the more miserable the main fund will die.

During this period, the issuance of new shares in an incredibly crazy number has not stopped, so the purpose of reducing stamp duty by the state is even more thought-provoking. It is not excluded that while meeting the requirements of investors (the government has done enough in face), the main funds are forced to do more at the current point to pick up the size, and a large number of new funds are also borrowed from the market (the wool is on the sheep, the government has nothing, or the money of retail investors), and the market is short.

The previous bear market was caused by the reduction of state-owned shares. In January, 25, when the bear market was going on, the stamp duty was lowered. As a result, the main products were shipped again after a certain increase, and the market once again fluctuated and bottomed out, hitting a new low. Now the situation is somewhat similar to that at that time, so you can refer carefully. ? 2

However, in a weak state, a small negative news may be magnified several times because of panic. Please keep a vigilant mind for retail friends who have already stepped in, and pay attention to whether there is any bad news coming out at any time.

Now, we should go with the trend, don't be a dead bull or a dead bear, just be a prick.

Please be cautious in adopting purely personal opinions. Good luck