On March 19th, Beijing time, Uber plunged 21.63%, the biggest one-day drop since its listing. Its latest closing price was only $12.82, and the corresponding market value was $25.55 billion, setting a new low in the past 1 months. Softbank's investment loss in Uber has exceeded $5 billion.

Uber, the originator of the global online car-hailing platform, is also the largest online car-hailing platform listed company in the world, and its market value has become the reference target of similar companies. Didi, the online car-hailing platform in China, is just such a similar company. In the primary market, Didi valuation used to benchmark Uber.

When and at what valuation Didi will go public are two unsolved mysteries in the primary market of China, and it is not expected to be solved in 22. If Didi wants to go public, according to Uber's market value performance, Didi, a car-hailing platform in China, may have a valuation of less than $2 billion.

below, from the business scale of Uber and Didi, their markets and their business models, how much can Didi's valuation be worth? This problem is one of the unsolved mysteries of the primary market in China. This article is only for analysis, because it does not constitute a practical reference. Please pay attention to the logic of analysis.

in the primary market, Didi's valuation was once compared with Uber's valuation. Once upon a time, Didi recommended to investors that Didi's valuation was lower and the order volume was more, so the valuation had more room to rise. How much is the value of Didi, you have to refer to the market value of Uber.

Uber's latest market value is $25.5 billion, of which Uber holds 17.7% of the income rights of Didi, which is the result of the merger of Uber China and Didi. In addition, Uber also holds Uber? ATG has a stake of about 6.25 billion US dollars. This is April 219, Uber? After ATG's independence, it was valued at $7.25 billion after receiving an investment of $1 billion from Softbank, Toyota and Denso.

Uber? The market value at the time of IPO was $82.4 billion, which was lower than the market expectation of $12 billion. Before that, the final financing in the primary market was valued at about $75 billion, which was higher than the final valuation of Didi of $6 billion. In other words, in the primary market, Uber's valuation is higher than Didi.

In terms of business, Uber's business is mainly divided into four parts: 1. Online car rental; 2, takeaway Uber? Eats； 3. Freight service Uber? Freight； 4. Other businesses (electric bicycles, technical services). Takeaway and freight service are Uber's fastest growing businesses. In Q3 of 219, they increased by 64% and 78% respectively year-on-year, with revenues of $645 million and $218 million respectively.

The online car service is Uber's largest business, with revenue of $2.895 billion in Q3 in 219, a year-on-year growth rate of 19%. However, Uber's online car service has been eroded by competitor Lyft. In 218, Lyft claimed that it occupied 35% of the US travel market, while 15 months ago, this figure was 15%. The United States enjoys the travel market, which is basically monopolized by Uber and Lyft.

Didi, as a non-listed company, has not published its detailed operating data. But it can also be inferred from its current business. At present, Didi's business includes 1. Online car rental (special car, express train, carpooling, taxi, etc.); 2. Small orange car clothes in the aftermarket; 3 driving, renting a car (small orange car rental) and cycling.

The latest valuation of Didi has the following references:

1. The latest round of financing of Didi was a strategic investment of $6 million from Toyota in July 219, but the investment valuation was not announced;

2. According to Gronhui, in October 219, Didi's two original shareholders in China and the United States sought to cash out, and the quotation was valued at $4 billion and $43 billion respectively. However, it does not show whether the transaction is successful;

3. The China Unicorn Report: 219 released by Evergrande Research Institute at the end of December 219 shows that the latest valuation of Didi is 45 billion US dollars;

4. In 217, Didi lost 2.5 billion yuan and made 7.43 billion travel orders; In 218, the loss was 1.8 billion, and the order was about 1.9 billion (more than 3 million orders per day);

with the increase of orders, the losses also increase, and Didi's business model seems to be not so beautiful.

Didi's business model copy? from? Uber, in addition to the online car service, Didi once wanted to attack the takeaway service, but Didi encountered a strong opponent in China-Meituan. Didi wants to cut into take-out, also because the US delegation wants to cut into the online car service. After a brief confrontation between the two sides in a few cities such as Nanjing and Shanghai, they all died down.

because, once a war breaks out, a huge amount of funds are needed, and neither the US Mission nor Didi has such funds. Of course, the US Mission at that time was also fully preparing for the IPO, and the performance of the financial statements of the IPO could not be affected by burning money to open up the taxi market.

In p>219, it was once reported in the market that Meituan was going to acquire Didi. At that time, Meituan was at the peak of its market value after listing, which was about 9 billion US dollars, and it was profitable. Didi is mired in the quagmire, and its business has been severely compressed by supervision and competitors.

more importantly, influenced by the supervision, Didi's business model has changed from a pure C2C model to a B2C model, which is not much different from the traditional taxi company. Only the hitchhiking business, or the pure C2C model, is also the only place to raise the valuation.

another thing I have to mention is autonomous driving, which is also based on Uber's autonomous driving department? ATG, Didi has established an autonomous driving department, but the real scale investment should start from 219, refer to Uber? With the independence of ATG, the autonomous driving department of Didi became independent, and Jaco, CTO of Didi, became the CEO of the new company. Subsequently, Meng Xing, a capital investor of Shunwei, joined as COO and Aptiv? VP Wei junqing became CTO.

however, the difference is that Uber? After ATG became independent, it received $1 billion investment from Softbank, Toyota and Denso, and Uber went public later. After the independence of Didi autopilot, it has not received any investment (so far there is no official announcement), and Didi seems to be far from listing.

2? When will Didi be listed?

Didi has been listed for countless times. As a super unicorn and super financing machine in China, the total financing amount exceeds 2 billion US dollars, and the investors behind it are extremely luxurious, such as domestic and foreign first-tier dollar funds, Chinese prefix consortia and automobile and technology giants such as banks, Toyota and Apple.

in 218, Didi's listing plan was interrupted by a series of fatal accidents, the only profitable hitchhiking business was stopped, Didi began to be safely rectified, and relevant regulators were stationed. Didi also rarely announced a loss of 1.8 billion in 218 in 219, and began to lay off employees and cut expenses, including employee benefits, and even the mineral water for guests was cancelled.

Both Cheng Wei and Liu Qing have used the words of crying in media interviews. In fact, crying miserably can't solve the problem of Didi. So many investors behind Didi are looking forward to this Didi IPO, and they have successfully made a profit exit, which is the essential driving force of capital.

When will Didi IPO be and what its valuation will be? These are two unsolved mysteries in the primary market. Didi restarted the windmill business at the end of 219. Before that, the self-driving company was independent, which was interpreted as Didi's sprint IPO in 22. However, the global stock market plummeted in Q1, and the US stock market experienced a rare four-time fuse in 1 days.

the market value of p>Uber has even dropped to $25.5 billion. In the face of such a market environment, is Didi still confident to go public? The answer is obvious. So how much is Didi worth now? Once benchmarking Uber in the primary market, you may wish to benchmark the IPO market value against Uber.

the situation faced by Didi is even worse: in the online car-sharing business, it is subject to regionalized competition led by the main engine factory, and it is also subject to regionalized regulatory problems; The take-away market has not and cannot be cut in, because in the face of the competition between Meituan and Ant Financial; The freight market has not been developed; After the market, it can make Didi have a certain imagination.

more importantly, Uber also holds 17.7% of Didi's revenue rights, and Uber, an autonomous driving company? ATG has a stake of 6.25 billion US dollars, and the valuation of Didi Autopilot Company is definitely not comparable to Uber. ATG, and may be an order of magnitude difference.

one more thing, Uber is still a C2C model in the United States, and Didi is no longer a pure C2C model. The scale effect of C2C model and the advantages of light assets on the platform can also be reflected in the valuation. More importantly, neither Uber nor Didi can achieve scale profitability. In the current market environment, it is obviously an unpopular business model.

Didi, how much do you think it can be worth? In Che Zhijun's view, the valuation higher than Uber is too risky for investors. If it is higher than Uber, it is better to buy Uber shares, and the liquidity is particularly strong. If it is lower than Uber, it is also necessary to look down. As an investor, it must look up at the profit margin, so it must be less than 2 billion US dollars. According to Uber's market value, the profit margin is 25%, the cash-out time is at least 3 years, and the annualized income is 8%.

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.