Who is the biggest contributor to the central adjustment of pensions?

Recently, the Ministry of Finance released the annual budget of the central adjustment fund in 2020, and the central adjustment fund is expected to reach 739.823 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of109.523 billion yuan over last year's implementation, with an increase of 654.38+07.4%.

In 20 18, the central pension adjustment system was born, and the pension entered the era of national overall planning. All provinces pay a certain proportion of pensions in a unified way, and these pensions are transferred to various places through allocation.

There are provinces with net contributions and provinces with net benefits. Who supported half of the pension?

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This is the central adjustment of pensions in mainland provinces and cities (including the Corps) in 2020:

Which provinces have a net contribution? Which provinces benefit the most?

As for the adjustment of the central pension, only 7 provinces paid net contributions, 22 provinces (including the Corps) benefited from it, and 3 provinces paid the same contributions.

Among them, seven provinces including Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian and Shandong are "net contribution" provinces, contributing 654.38+076.7 billion yuan.

Guangdong alone contributed 1/3, and Guangdong and Beijing together contributed more than 60%, making them the biggest granary for the adjustment of the central pension.

On the contrary, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Hebei and other 22 regions (including Corps) are "net benefit" provinces.

Among these provinces, Northeast China and Hubei are the biggest beneficiaries.

Among them, Liaoning's net profit was 55.558 billion yuan, Heilongjiang's was 48.556 billion yuan, Hubei1868.7 billion yuan, and Jilin 145 19. These four provinces accounted for more than 3/4 of the total benefits, and Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces alone accounted for nearly 60%.

The aging rate in the three northeastern provinces is too high, and pensions in some provinces have long been unable to cover their expenses. The issue of old-age care has attracted much attention, ranking the most beneficial province for two consecutive years.

The situation in Hubei is somewhat special. The adjustment scale in Hubei this year has increased by 55% compared with last year, which is caused by the epidemic situation. The social security and financial pressure in Hubei are great, so it is undoubtedly necessary and urgent to increase the scale of pension transfer payment.

In addition, Yunnan, Guizhou and Tibet are all flat, and their revenues and expenditures are balanced.

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There is sea water on one side and flame on the other.

The emergence of central pension adjustment means that pensions are greatly divided among different provinces, and pensions in some provinces have been unable to make ends meet.

In the whole year of 20 19, the income of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers was 529 19 billion yuan, and the fund expenditure was 4,922.8 billion yuan. At the end of the year, the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban employees was 5,462.3 billion yuan.

Although as far as the whole country is concerned, the income of pension in that year can still cover the expenditure, plus the historical balance in the past, the total plate has more than 5 trillion.

However, in the total plate of more than 5 trillion yuan, only Guangdong accounts for about 1 trillion yuan, while Heilongjiang has been unable to make ends meet for many years, and the accumulated balance of pensions has been negative.

This can be measured by the number of months of pension payment. This indicator measures the historical balance of pensions in each province and the total number of months that can be paid: the more months that can be paid, the more abundant the pension is, and the lower the number of months that can be paid, the more tense the pension is.

According to Zeping's macro data, the accumulated national pension balance at the end of 20 18 can support the expenditure of 14.7 months.

This means that if the annual pension balance is balanced, the pension balance can still be paid for 52 months in Guangdong, less than half a year in Liaoning, Qinghai, Hubei and other places, while Heilongjiang has not only exhausted all the balance, but also relied on subsidies and transfer payments.

Not only in Heilongjiang, but in the next few years, nearly half of the provinces in China may face the dilemma of making ends meet.

According to the Report on the Development of Social Security in China on 20 19, as early as 20 16, there were seven provinces (Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hubei and Qinghai) where the current (annual) endowment insurance funds failed to meet their expenditures. It is estimated that by 2022, half of the provinces' pension funds will be unable to make ends meet, and some of them are at risk of running out of accumulated balances.

These provinces that can't make ends meet will be mainly distributed in the northeast and central and western regions. Among them, all the three northeastern provinces are listed, and there are no southeast coastal provinces.

It is worth mentioning that the economic situation since 2020 has added countless variables to this situation.

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Behind the central adjustment of pensions is the disparity between aging and population mobility.

This is the ranking of aging rate (proportion of population aged 65 and over) in major provinces in 20 19:

According to the internationally accepted classification standards, when a country or region accounts for more than 7% of the population aged 65 and over, it means aging; It reaches 14%, belonging to deep aging; If it exceeds 20%, it will enter a super-aging society.

From this point of view, Liaoning, Shandong, Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan and other seven provinces have entered a "deep aging" society, while Jilin, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hebei and other provinces are close to "deep aging".

In contrast, the aging rate of Guangdong and Fujian is only about 9%, which is in the same range as Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang and other provinces, and the degree of population rejuvenation is second to none in the country.

Of course, the high rate of aging does not mean that pensions must be in a tight state, which is closely related to the degree of economic development, the scale of population inflow and the industrial structure.

This is the ranking of population increment of major provinces in 20 19:

It is not difficult to see that Guangdong and Zhejiang are far ahead, while Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other three northeastern provinces are facing continuous outflows.

On the one hand, the natural growth population and foreign population keep pouring in, on the other hand, the young population keeps flowing out, and the birth population is lower than the death population, which leads to the increasingly disparity in the pension situation.

Obviously, in the provinces with low aging rate and net inflow of population, especially some southeast provinces that continue to attract "peacocks flying southeast", under the background of continuous improvement of economy, finance and demographic dividend, pensions will not be a problem in the short term.

On the contrary, in the provinces with high aging rate, low birth rate and facing the outflow of young people, the pressure of pension income will become greater and greater, and the driving force for long-term economic growth will inevitably be limited.

This will determine the future fate of different provinces.

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Many people are surprised that there are only seven provinces in the central adjustment of pensions.

The scale of "net contribution" of these seven provinces is as follows:

It is not without reason that these provinces have become net donors.

First, these seven provinces are all big economies. Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang account for the top four GDP, Fujian ranks eighth in the country, and Shanghai and Beijing are the two cities with the largest economic aggregates in the country.

In fact, these provinces are not only big economic provinces, but also big financial provinces. They are not only the biggest contributors to the central adjustment of pensions, but also the biggest contributors to financial transfer payments.

Second, most of these seven provinces are located in the east, mainly in the southeast. Except Beijing as the capital, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shandong are all eastern coastal provinces, and they are all located in the southeast coast except Shandong.

Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to say that pensions are transferred from south to north. For fiscal transfer payment and pension transfer payment, there is also a debate about "southeast N provinces feed China", which is also reasonable.

Third, the younger the place, the more energetic it is. The more young people there are in a province or a city, the more significant the labor dividend will be, the less the financial and pension pressure will be, the more prominent the vitality of the whole region will be, and the stronger the endogenous driving force for sustained economic growth will be.

The opposite is true.