Some people even reminded that under the background of economic downturn and monetary policy in the channel of reducing RRR and interest rate, it is normal for market liquidity to be abundant, safe assets to be scarce and the yield of money funds to decline. The yield of general currency fluctuates in the range of 1.5% to 3.0%, and the difference in the new year's yield in the next few years should not be too big.
Fund income enters "1 era"
Judging from the income level of the Monetary Fund this year, it has been declining month by month. The data shows that the overall rate of return of the money fund has entered the downward channel this year. At the end of last year, the 7-day annualized rate of return of the Monetary Fund was 2.43%, and the arithmetic average of 7-day annualized rates of return at the end of June, February and March were 2.22%, 2.0 1% and 2. 16% respectively.
Since April, the 7-day annualized rate of return of the Monetary Fund has entered the range of "1%". The data shows that the 7-day average annualized returns at the end of April and May are 1.93% and 1.78% respectively. Obviously, the current monetary fund yield is in a continuous downward trend.
This trend can also be seen from the yield range of Yu 'ebao. The annualized rate of return on June 10 was only 1.67%, which basically fluctuated from the highest of 2. 175% on June 6 this year, especially since the end of April.
In fact, when Tian Hong Yu 'ebao was launched on 20 13, the yield once exceeded 6%. From 20 17, it has been declining from 4%, 3%, 2.5%, 2.3% and 2%, especially from April to June in 2020. The annualized rate of return is basically in the range of "1%", and the lowest even reaches the income level of 1.3 1 1%.
Talking about the reason why the current money fund yield has fallen to "1 era", Wei Zhen, managing director, investment director and fund manager of the second fixed income investment department of Bosera Fund, directly said: First, the interest rate of money market funds has remained low this year, and the reinvestment rate of money funds has dropped significantly compared with last year; Second, since the beginning of this year, the equity market has been greatly adjusted, and investors' risk appetite is weak, and all-money funds are highly sought after. The product yield and the overall cash management financial yield are relatively low.
Shen Rong, co-director of the low-risk investment department of Everbright Prudential, has a similar view, mainly because the central bank has adopted a relatively loose monetary policy in response to the epidemic, and the inter-bank repo rate and interbank deposit rate have dropped sharply compared with the beginning of the year. The remaining term of the money fund is short, and with the expiration of high-yield assets allocated in the early stage, the yield is also facing a gradual decline.
Wang Dan, assistant general manager of the fixed income department of Furong Fund, said that the fundamental reason behind the decline in the yield of the money fund is that the current macroeconomic fundamentals are still weak and the demand for the real economy is not boosted enough; At the same time, the interest rate of debt-side funds hovers at a low level in the interest rate center. Driven by these factors, the yield of the bond market continued to decline, and the yield of the money fund declined with the decline of the overall yield of the bond market, once again entering the "1 era".
In addition, Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, is even more outspoken. Under the background of economic downturn and monetary policy in the RRR interest rate reduction channel, it is normal for the market to have abundant liquidity and a shortage of safe assets, and the yield of the money fund to decline. The yield of general currency fluctuates in the range of 1.5% to 3.0%, and the difference in the new year's yield in the next few years should not be too big. Money is a cash financial tool in investment and financial management, so don't expect too much from its yield.
In the future, the income of the money fund is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Although the yield of the money fund is declining, due to the market shock and decline in 2023, investors' risk aversion is heating up, and the money fund is highly sought after by the market, with a steady and rising scale. According to the data of fund industry association, by the end of April, the total net assets of public offering O.
Under the background of the increasing scale of the money fund, such products are in the era of "1%". How should the subsequent rate of return go? Many people think that the yield of the money fund is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year, but the overall yield difference will not be too big.
Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that under the care of the central bank, it will be relatively stable at the end of the first half of the year; In the second half of this year, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the income of the money fund is expected to stabilize and gradually pick up. It is expected that the third quarter may be a stabilization process, and the fourth quarter may be slightly higher than next year.
"The follow-up money fund may experience a process of bottoming out and then slowly rising." Shen Rong, co-director of Prudential Trust's low-risk investment department, also said that at the end of half a year, the market will still have some concerns about funds. Superimposed bank certificates of deposit have a large maturity, and short-term asset prices are expected to rise, which is a good opportunity for the allocation of money funds.
Wang Dan, assistant general manager of the fixed income department of Furong Fund, said that it is expected that the current monetary policy will remain loose and moderate until the economic fundamentals are fully stabilized and restored. Monetary funds mainly invest in short-term fixed-income assets, which are obviously influenced by monetary policy. Therefore, it is expected that the yield center of the money fund may still be difficult to rise sharply in the short term.
Wang Dan believes that after entering the second half of the year, especially after the fourth quarter, if the economic fundamentals obviously pick up and monetary policy gradually returns to a more neutral and moderate level from the current neutral and slightly loose level, then the central interest rate of the Monetary Fund may rise significantly. Until then, it is expected that the monetary fund will remain at a level slightly lower than the central bank's interest rate.
Wang Dan also said that according to historical experience, generally at the end of half a year and the end of the year, the interest rate of funds will rise more obviously than other end of the month and the end of the season. From the perspective of institutional behavior, near the end of half a year and the end of the year, it is also common for financial institution customers and retail customers to redeem money funds. At this time, most ordinary money funds will encounter net redemption and the funds will flow back to the banking system. In addition, there may be many factors in the middle and late June of this year, such as excessive bond supply, economic rebound after resumption of production, inflation expectations, and bond market take-off sentiment. For the money fund, the liquidity inside and outside the portfolio may face short-term tightening expectations. At this stage, the general portfolio yield may be accompanied by the bond market.
The interest rate of funds has risen.
However, Wei Zhen, managing director of Bosera Fund, investment director and fund manager of the Second Fixed Income Investment Department, believes that in an environment with reasonable and abundant liquidity, it is expected that the yield of the money fund will still have room for decline. If the funds are tightened seasonally at the end of June, the income of the money fund may rebound slightly. In June, the supply pressure of national debt was great, and credit improvement and fiscal revenue and expenditure will also become the disturbing factors of funds at the end of half a year. The final tightness of funds still depends on the way and strength of the central bank's liquidity in June.
Short-term liquidity is still sufficient and high.
The expectation of reducing RRR already exists.
Talking about the future monetary policy, Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that as we all know, banks will face MPA assessment at the end of half a year, which will have a certain impact on market liquidity and need to inject funds to maintain market liquidity. It is expected that in the next one to two months, more bonds such as local bonds and special government bonds will be issued, which will increase the supply of bonds and also require the central bank to hedge the liquidity of the market.
"Therefore, at least in the next two quarters, interbank liquidity needs to be maintained at a high level, and the expectation of RRR interest rate cuts in the future still exists." Zou Deli said that the loan interest rate in China is still neutral, and the benchmark loan interest rate has not fallen enough in the past. Many enterprises are struggling in the epidemic environment, and it is expected that there will be room for at least one interest rate cut in the future, and there will be room for decline in both LPR and MLF.
Zou Deli predicted that in the bond market, asset shortage will still exist due to abundant liquidity, and the yield of short-term bonds is relatively low. It is necessary to adhere to the strategy that coupon is king, and long-term debt has opportunities for band operation. However, with the economic recovery in the third and fourth quarters, the risks of long-term bonds will be gradually reflected, and the allocation value of short-term bonds will be further reflected.
Wei Zhen, managing director of Bosera Fund, investment director and fund manager of Fixed Income Investment Division II, said that judging the trend of monetary policy is still the key to maintaining stability and looseness. The basic direction of China's long-term economic improvement has not changed, but the current downward pressure on the economy is even greater. Monetary policy will increase support for the real economy, give full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, make good use of various policy tools, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, stabilize market players, ensure employment, and stabilize the macroeconomic market. In June, the issuance of local bonds was disturbed by the factors at the end of half a year, and the interest rate of funds was higher than that in May 10BP. The interest rate of follow-up funds may still rise slightly and gradually return to the center of interest rate corridor, but overall it remains loose, so there is no need to worry too much about the funds in the short term.
"Under the influence of the epidemic stabilization policy, the manufacturing PMI data rebounded to 49.6 in May, and the direction of subsequent economic recovery was relatively certain. However, compared with the recovery after the epidemic in 2020, compared with the obvious pulling effect of real estate and exports at that time, the main focus of this round of recovery is infrastructure, so it is more likely that the economy will show a U-shaped rebound. " Shen Rong, co-director of the low-risk investment department of Everbright Prudential, believes that monetary policy is also needed to continue to escort and will not withdraw soon. There is a high probability that the follow-up funds will continue to be loose. Even if the margin is tightened, the possibility of being too radical is relatively small.
Wang Dan, assistant general manager of the fixed income department of Furong Fund, said that my view on the future direction of monetary policy may be more positive than the current market level. At present, the fundamental performance is still relatively weak, and the whole is in the stage of strong economic policy stimulus. At this stage, monetary policy will pay more attention to stabilizing the economy, and it is relatively more important to keep the economy running smoothly. Therefore, it is difficult to tighten the current monetary policy substantially in stages, and we can all see that since the second quarter of this year, the central bank's position on monetary policy has also been positive.
Wang Dan believes that when we take a longer view, we can't ignore that the central bank's consideration of monetary policy has been constantly fine-tuned during the three years since the outbreak, from the initial countercyclical adjustment to the recent cross-cyclical adjustment, indicating that the central bank has considered the monetary policy arrangement after the outbreak, and at the same time maintained a certain flexibility in discretion.
Wang Dan further stated that in this process, monetary policy is expected to be dynamically adjusted according to the internal and external economic environment and fundamental recovery. At present, it is not the most relaxed time for funds. I prefer to think that the present situation is more of a stage concept. At present, the funds are in a state of continuous easing, and the availability and stability of funds are relatively good, but the absolute level of interest rate is not particularly extreme, and it is more maintained at a level slightly lower than the central interest rate.
"Substitute" for short-term debt products, mutual deposit funds or finished products funds
With the money fund's rate of return entering the "1 era", many investors believe that short-term debt products and deposit-withdrawal funds can replace the money fund, and these low-risk products have also become the "explosion point" in the recent new fund issuance market.
Wei Zhen, Managing Director of Bosera Fund and Investment Director of Fixed Income Investment Department II, said that short-term debt-based products and short-term interest rate index products can be substituted. Short-term debt products have a certain income advantage compared with goods base, and short-term debt products have short duration, small fluctuation and controllable duration risk. Short-term interest rate bond index products have no credit risk, small fluctuation, controllable withdrawal, good liquidity and higher income than goods base.
"Deposit index funds and short-term debt funds have formed an effective supplement to money fund products." Shen Rong, co-director of the low-risk investment department of Everbright Prudential, also said that in general, the investment scope of deposit receipt funds is mainly high-rated interbank deposit receipts, with relatively high liquidity, but the duration limit is less than that of ordinary bond funds, and it is expected to achieve higher returns than that of monetary funds while undertaking finite risk. Short-term debt funds are similar, and they can also strive to get some extra income in the dimension of credit mining. However, these two types of products should pay attention to controlling the risk of net fluctuation and credit risk.
Zou Deli, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Great Wall Fund, said that in the absence of effective investment channels in the current market, most investors should focus on ensuring safety and liquidity. In this case, products such as short-term and medium-term debt funds that can be advanced, retreated and defended, advanced and attacked, both offensive and defensive, and relatively controllable risks will be a good choice.
However, Wang Dan, assistant general manager of the fixed income department of Furong Fund, believes that the era of "1%" does not mean that the money fund has lost its appeal. Compared with other fund products, the risk of net value fluctuation of money fund is lower, the expected income is relatively stable, and the advantages of high investment security and convenient liquidity are still obvious. It is a good low-risk fixed-income investment product.
Wang Dan believes that from the perspective of absolute income level, the income attractiveness of the current money fund is obviously reduced. "Individuals will be more inclined to be a' basket combination' concept. A certain proportion of assets will be invested in equity assets, a certain proportion will be invested in medium and long-term bond assets, and a certain proportion will be invested in highly liquid assets such as money funds."
Short-term debt funds with low risk and high liquidity have also become the "new darling" of the wealth management market. Wind data shows that as of May 3 1 day, the fund company has issued 32 short-term pure debt funds this year (based on the fund establishment date, only the initial funds are shown), while in the same period of 2020 and 20021year, there were only 17 and 6 such products respectively. Wind data shows that the scale of short-term pure debt funds has greatly increased from 328.46 billion yuan at the end of last year to 603.2./kloc-0.9 billion yuan at the end of May this year.
According to industry insiders, the A-share market has not performed well, investors' risk appetite has plummeted, idle funds in the market have nowhere to go, and some sales channels are also intentionally guiding some funds to flow into low-risk products. It is expected that such low-risk products will continue to be popular in the near future.
This article is from China Fund.
Q&A: What is the annualized rate of 2.3% on January 7th? How to calculate the seven-day annualized rate of return? Seven-day annualized rate of return refers to the annualized rate of return converted from the net income per 10,000 fund shares of the Monetary Fund in the past seven days. What is the seven-day annualized rate of return in 1 1 month? How to calculate the seven-day annualized rate of return? Let's explain how to calculate it! How much is eleven thousand for seven days a month? For example, according to the above meaning, suppose that the seven-day annualized expected rate of return of a wealth management product is saved for one month, and the investor invests 1 1,000 yuan, then the expected return can be obtained after the term expires. Single-day income = 7-day annualized income * interest rate * 1/360, then the single-day income is = yuan; So, suppose you invest 10000 yuan in wealth management products, and the annualized income is seven days, and the interest income earned in one day is about yuan, and then a month is 30 days, which is yuan. So you can earn 10 thousand yuan in January on the 7 th How to calculate the seven-day annualized rate of return? One-day income of seven-day annualized rate of return = seven-day annualized income * interest rate * 1/360. You can see how many days you have to calculate the return, and then substitute the figures to calculate. Summary: Assuming that the seven-day annualized expected rate of return of wealth management products is one month's deposit and one * * * is an investment of 654.38+0 million yuan, then its one-day income is RMB and one-month income is RMB.