(1) Commodity attribute of crude oil-the relationship between supply and demand determines the direction of oil price

The fundamental factors of crude oil supply and demand determine the long-term trend of crude oil price. Because crude oil is a non-renewable resource, the short-term supply elasticity of crude oil is small, so when no new large-scale oil fields are discovered and major technological innovations appear, the most important factor affecting crude oil prices is the world economic development that determines the demand for crude oil.

(II) Crude oil inventory-affecting the expectation of oil price fluctuation

1. What is crude oil inventory

Crude oil inventory is divided into commercial inventory and strategic reserve. The main purpose of commercial inventory is to ensure the efficient operation of enterprises in the case of seasonal fluctuation of crude oil demand, while preventing potential shortage of crude oil supply; The main purpose of the national strategic reserve is to cope with the crude oil crisis.

crude oil inventories of various countries play a role in regulating the balance between supply and demand in the international crude oil market, and the change of their quantity is directly related to the change of the balance between supply and demand in the world crude oil market. In the international crude oil market, the weekly crude oil inventory and demand data released by the American Crude Oil Association (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy have become the basis for many crude oil companies to judge the short-term supply and demand situation of the international crude oil market and conduct practical operations.

2. Crude oil inventory and oil price

After the data of crude oil inventory and demand were released, WTI oil price chose the direction of upward or downward fluctuation, which directly affected the trend of Brent oil in London and Singapore and drove the oil price to fluctuate upward or downward. The influence of crude oil inventory on oil price is complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, crude oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and reducing the futures spot price difference. When the futures price is lower than the spot price, crude oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price.

By the end of November 29, the commercial crude oil inventories of OECD countries reached 2.738 billion barrels, up from 51 million barrels in the same period of last year, which can meet the demand of OECD countries for 6 days, exceeding the upper limit of the average level in the past five years. According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 21, the commercial crude oil inventories in OECD countries will still be relatively abundant, and higher inventories will restrain the oil price increase to some extent.

(3) dollar exchange rate factor-affecting the actual level of oil prices

As international crude oil transactions are mainly priced in dollars, the dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors that affect the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the US dollar appreciates, the international prices of raw materials such as gold, crude oil and copper are under downward pressure. Conversely, when the dollar depreciates, the price of such commodities will rise.

from 22 to July 21, the price of crude oil rose steadily due to the sharp depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies in the world. The interest rate adjustment and exchange rate policy adopted by the United States to alleviate the subprime mortgage crisis directly brought about the flood of liquidity, which led to global inflation and the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, which led to the skyrocketing prices of commodities including crude oil, and the oil price reached a new high under the impetus of the loose monetary policy of the United States, reaching an all-time high of US$ 147 in July 28. In the context of the financial crisis hitting the real economy, oil prices quickly fell to $35. Therefore, there is a typical negative correlation between the dollar and oil prices, and the weak dollar will support the rise of oil prices.

However, the impact of the dollar exchange rate on oil prices is only temporary and not significant enough. Statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil futures price and US dollar index is -.22, which shows that the US dollar exchange rate plays a very small role relative to the supply and demand of crude oil in oil price fluctuations.

(4) world economic development-promoting the phased adjustment of oil prices

global economic growth will affect crude oil prices by changing the demand in the crude oil market. There is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and the growth of oil demand, and the proportional relationship between them is generally expressed by the elastic coefficient of crude oil consumption to GDP.

However, the change of economic growth rate can not only explain the rise of oil prices in the medium and long term, but also the fall of oil prices caused by short-term economic recession can be shown in the changes of economic data. Figure 4-2 shows that the overall oil price trend was upward in the decade from 1999 to 28, during which there were at least three obvious staged pullbacks. One was the decline in demand caused by the short-term decline of the American economy after the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble in 2. From the comparative changes between the global economic growth rate and the international oil price, we can clearly see the impact of the global economic downturn on oil prices. The second time was caused by the short-term recovery of idle capacity in mid-26, which eased the market pressure in a short time. The third deep oil price correction since mid-28 is closely related to the economic crisis.

in p>21, the world economy will recover slowly and the international oil price will show a steady upward trend. If the prospect of world economic recovery is better than expected, confidence in economic and financial markets is restored, inflationary pressure is increased, and the dollar continues to weaken sharply, then the upward trend of international oil prices will be more obvious. If a new financial shock breaks out, the recovery of the world economy is blocked, and the second economic recession occurs, in order to prevent the stagflation dollar from becoming strong under the guidance of policies, then the international oil price operation platform may move down.

(5) unexpected events and climate conditions-making the fluctuation of oil prices more uncertain

crude oil has the attributes of general commodities as well as strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for crude oil resources and controlling the crude oil market have become important reasons for the oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices. The tense geopolitics has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction in the international crude oil market. Geopolitical factors such as terrorist attacks on crude oil facilities, strikes by crude oil workers and political turmoil in oil-producing countries will all have an impact on international oil prices. At present, terrorist attacks in Iraq are frequent and crude oil facilities are often damaged. The anti-terrorism activities in Afghanistan led by the United States are "more anti-terrorism". The situation in Afghanistan has not been effectively controlled so far, but has escalated and gradually spread to Pakistan, Iran and other places. Iran is an important oil-producing country in the world. With the unresolved nuclear issue and the chaos caused by "terrorist activities", the "terrorist premium" of international crude oil will also increase day by day, which will be further amplified through speculation. Local political turmoil or war will stimulate the rise of oil prices.

Climate conditions will affect the supply and demand of crude oil. For example, abnormal weather may cause damage to crude oil production facilities, lead to supply interruption, and thus affect the international oil price, but its impact on the entire international oil price is short-term. In addition, many countries in Europe and America use crude oil as heating fuel, so when the climate changes abnormally, it will cause short-term changes in fuel oil demand, thus driving the prices of crude oil and other oil products to change.

(6) international crude oil speculation factors-aggravate the short-term fluctuation of oil prices

At present, in the international crude oil futures market, the operation of international speculative capital is a factor that cannot be ignored. Speculation and market expectation in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. Speculation factors in the international crude oil market have 1%-2% influence on crude oil prices. Especially when some unexpected events happen, a large amount of speculative capital will operate in the international crude oil futures market, which will aggravate the volatility of international crude oil prices.

In the period of low oil prices, the scale of speculative funds is relatively small, and the ability to amplify the role of international events in the formation of crude oil futures prices is limited. With the gradual rise of crude oil price, the crude oil futures market has attracted more and more speculative funds, and the scale of speculative funds has become larger and larger, and the "herd effect" has become more and more obvious. The release of any sensitive data and the occurrence of events, such as changes in crude oil inventories, oil field explosions, geopolitical relations, workers' strikes and climate change, will suddenly amplify its impact under the action of large-scale speculative funds and aggravate the fluctuation of oil prices.

(VII) Geopolitical factors

Oil is a scarce non-renewable resource and an indispensable strategic resource for the survival and development of a country, which has a great impact on the country's economy, military affairs and security. The change of international crude oil market price is often influenced by geopolitical and political factors of oil-producing countries.

Geopolitics and the political situation of oil-producing countries have two main effects on oil prices. First, geopolitical conflicts have led to a real decline in crude oil supply; The second is that geopolitical conflicts have caused the international crude oil market to worry about the future supply reduction, but the actual supply has not decreased. Judging from the current geopolitical situation, the focus of geopolitics in the future will mainly be Iraq and Iran in the Middle East. In 26, the Iranian nuclear crisis caused the international oil market to worry about the interruption of Iranian crude oil supply, and led to the continuous rise of international oil prices in 26.

as the most important organization of petroleum exporting countries in the world, OPEC has strong oil pricing power in the world. In order to safeguard the interests of member countries, the organization implements a strict production cap system for member countries, and whenever the international oil price falls, the member countries of the organization will implement a policy of reducing production in order to maintain high oil prices and obtain high profits.

(8) People's expectations-psychological factors contribute to oil price fluctuations

In recent years, the expectation of dollar depreciation and inflation has made a large number of investment funds choose to invest in crude oil for a long time to avoid inflation risks. In the short term, a large amount of speculative capital has entered the crude oil market and used various expectations or themes to speculate, which has amplified the upward trend of oil prices. With the help of economic fluctuations or some unexpected events, speculative funds guide and make use of people's expectations, and hype in the spot and futures markets. The expected change and speculation influence each other, and the spot price and futures price push each other, which makes the oil price appear similar to "overshoot" after breaking through the key price up or down, which intensifies the fluctuation of crude oil price.

(9) Interest rate factor

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In the standard non-renewable resource model, the increase of interest rate will lead to the decrease of future mining value relative to current mining value, thus making the mining path convex to the present and far away from the future. High interest rate will reduce capital investment and lead to smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates will also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, which will lead to a decline in mining speed, which in turn will lead to an increase in crude oil prices.

various factors affecting oil prices are intertwined, which makes it more difficult for people to accurately predict oil prices. In addition to the main factor of supply and demand, other factors are random and uncertain, and the intensity presented in different periods is not the same. Changes in one or more of these factors will affect the international oil price. From the changes in the structure of international oil supply and demand, it can be predicted that oil prices will fluctuate at a high level for a long time, while changes in some random factors will cause short-term sharp fluctuations in oil prices.