faced with the CPI data as high as 4.4% in October and the price increase of more than 8%, how can we sit still and wait? In particular, the wage earners who experienced the rush to buy in the 198 s seemed to be enemies, and they turned into "dolphins" and madly hoarded rice, oil and eggs again; Wealthy people, on the other hand, flocked to "grab gold", forcing gold shops to postpone closing again and again until they came home with gold bricks. However, we don't want everyone to become so crazy. This issue of "Cover Article" tells everyone that guarding wallets should be rational!
Nowadays, Engel's coefficient of most families is decreasing, and relying solely on hoarding to protect wealth has limited effect after all, which can be said to be a negative coping style. Therefore, a more active way to deal with it is to take advantage of the characteristics of the capital market rising with inflation and share the benefits in the process of rising capital prices. Generally speaking, under the expectation of inflation, commodities, gold, property market and stock market are the "four donkey kong" for investment. As the current property market is experiencing the most severe policy regulation in history, we might as well change to early consumption with a strategic vision to resist inflation.
If people who are worried about inflation don't manage their money actively, their wealth will shrink greatly unconsciously. So, come to the 8th Shanghai Finance Expo held in Shanghai Exhibition Center from November 19th to 21st! At the three-day exhibition, more than 1 exhibitors from banks, funds, insurance, securities, foreign exchange, collection and other industries will gather together to give you advice and help you defend your wallet, and successfully become an inflation winner.
Inflation is coming
Abstract: As in the late 198s, the price increase is no longer limited to individual agricultural products such as mung beans and garlic, but permeates all aspects of food, clothing, housing and transportation. There is no doubt that inflation has come to us; It is very likely that inflation will continue and even peak next year.
the price of eggs has gone up! Vegetable prices are rising! Apple's price rises! Clothing prices are rising! ......
"You play with beans", "Jiang your army" and "You are cruel with garlic" have become the norm, followed by "Tang Gaozong" and "Mianlizhen". Everyone is complaining. Why does the price increase endlessly?
As in the late 198s, the price increase is no longer confined to individual agricultural products such as mung beans and garlic, but permeates into all aspects of our lives.
this is not inflation. what is it? This is inflation!
this time, inflation is the third "wolf coming", and it really has come!
Price increases are everywhere
On November 11th, the National Development and Reform Commission released the CPI data for October, and the figure of 4.4% was both surprising and unexpected. Surprisingly, in the first nine months of this year, the CPI figure was still 3%, but now it has crossed the line of 4%, and it seems that it is still advancing to the warning line of 5%. Unsurprisingly, everyone feels that price increases are everywhere. How can CPI not go up?
The monitoring of the retail price of urban food in October showed that nearly 8% of the 31 monitored products in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China rose in price. Monitoring food includes vegetables, grain and oil, fresh meat and fruits ***31 products. Statistics show that, compared with September, the prices of ***24 kinds of products rose in different degrees, accounting for about 8% of the total number of statistical varieties. In October, the average retail price of 15 major varieties of vegetables in large and medium-sized cities was 2.41 yuan per 5 grams, up 1.1% from September.
driven by the soaring cotton price, the clothing of downstream products is inevitably affected. In two and a half months, the spot price of domestic standard cotton rose from 18, yuan/ton to 28, yuan/ton, a record high in 11 years. As the end products, the prices of cotton goods, clothing, etc. have increased by 1% ~ 3%, and the price of down jackets has increased most significantly. Compared with last year, the average market price has increased by 2% to 3%.
in October, the national development and reform commission raised the price of refined oil, and diesel oil shortage appeared again in some cities. The rise in the price of refined oil not only increases the cost of people's travel: it is more expensive to refuel, and the fuel surcharge is increased. More importantly, it will continue to be transmitted to industries such as industry and tourism, causing another round of price increases for industrial products, agricultural products and service products.
Price increase is becoming the most common keyword in recent life; The price increase has made the purchasing power of our money bags lower and lower; The price increase makes us feel the power and pressure of inflation more and more.
why does CPI still swallow water warmly?
All along, people take CPI index as an indicator to measure the inflation rate, but there are endless criticisms about CPI. On this side, the price increase has already been overwhelming; On the other side, CPI figures are often still warm and swallowing water, slowly rising? There is often a big gap between the increase of CPI and the price increase that people feel personally.
let's take a look at the source and composition of CPI data. At present, China's CPI statistics mainly include eight categories of commodities, including food, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, clothing, household equipment supplies and maintenance, medical care, transportation and communication, entertainment and education, and housing. For eight categories of goods, with different weights, such as the highest weight for food, with a weight of 34%; The lowest weight is household equipment and services, with a weight of 6% (the Bureau of Statistics will slightly adjust the weight according to the consumption expenditure of residents every year). On this basis, according to the consumption habits of nearly 13, urban and rural households selected by sampling, the statistical department identified 262 basic categories in 8 categories, and selected about 6 specific commodities and services for regular and regular surveys.
therefore, the first reason for the gap between the actual feeling and CPI is that the house price does not fall within the calculation range of CPI. In the process of compiling CPI, the living expenses refer to the actual rent of renting a house, the interest rate of house loan for self-owned houses, property fees, building and decoration materials, water, electricity and fuel, etc. Housing prices are regarded as investment and are not included in the statistics of CPI. Therefore, firstly, the rent, not the house price, is included in the CPI statistics, and secondly, the proportion of living in the CPI statistics is also very small, about 13%. As a result, the rapid rise in house prices is not reflected in the CPI data.
The second reason is that the CPI index does not effectively distinguish residents with different incomes. China's adoption of three indicators, namely, overall CPI, urban CPI and rural CPI, cannot reflect the differences in consumption habits and weights of residents with different incomes. In other countries and economies, various forms of consumer price index are often reported to different target groups. For example, in Hong Kong SAR, CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) are reported respectively according to the low, medium and high income. Relatively speaking, the price index based on the target population and consumption habits will be more consistent with people's actual feelings.
Recently, Shen Minggao, head of research in China and chief economist in Greater China of Citigroup Global Finance Asia Limited, said at Caixin Expert Roundtable "How Far Is Inflation from Us" that the CPI data published by the National Bureau of Statistics was underestimated by 2 percentage points due to the errors brought by statistical methods. Considering the real CPI, Shen Minggao believes that China's inflation tolerance is 4%~6%, and if it exceeds 6%, it will be at a relatively high level. "If the digital CPI of the Bureau of Statistics reaches 4%, it is already very high." Shen minggao said.
Who brought inflation
A large amount of money supply, Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, gave the most basic reason for inflation. "In short, the massive issuance of money is a necessary condition for inflation, while the recovery of emerging economies has brought expectations for the rise in commodity prices. As emerging economies are the main demanders of commodities, they have formed sufficient conditions for inflation. The combination of the two eventually led to this round of inflation. "
After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 28, major central banks around the world successively adopted loose monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery. According to the estimation of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, in the first round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the prices of commodities including crude oil, copper and precious metals rose by about 15%. In November, the United States again launched the second round of "quantitative easing" program of $6 billion. Due to the substantial increase in the supply of dollars, it will lead to the depreciation of dollars. With the transmission of commodity prices, inflation has spread to many levels of life.
On the other hand, due to the flood of money, global speculative capital flows on a large scale and is continuously imported into emerging economies, which leads to a global rise in asset prices and asset bubbles.
In China, an independent economy, in addition to the import of inflation and the inflow of global capital, M2, a broad money with its rapid growth, has also promoted the development of inflation. Statistics show that the average annual growth rate of M2, the broad money in China, has remained at 23% since 22. By the end of September this year, the total supply of M2 had reached 69.64 trillion yuan. In the field of economics, the ratio of money supply to GDP is generally used to measure whether money is oversupplied. At present, the ratio of money supply to GDP in western developed economies is below 1, while it is relatively high in emerging market countries. The money supply is generally 1~1.5 times of GDP, and rarely exceeds 2 times. But by the end of September, 21, the total GDP of China was 26.866 trillion yuan, and the M2 of broad money supply was 2.6 times of GDP. If measured by this indicator, China's currency has been absolutely oversold.
Jin Yanshi, chief analyst of Guojin Securities, has a vivid metaphor, "All consumer goods and investment products around us can be packed in a wooden bucket and pool." The barrel is filled with food, clothing, housing and transportation. In fact, this is the main object covered by CPI data, while the pool is filled with stock market, property market, government investment, luxury goods, etc. We can understand the pool as an asset market. "There are only two options for the central bank to increase liquidity, that is, to put money, wooden barrels or pools." If it flows into the "wooden barrel", it will inevitably lead to rising prices such as food, clothing, housing and transportation; If injected into the "pool", it will make the stock price and property price rise and form a bubble. In fact, this year, due to the introduction of strict real estate control policies, the influx of funds in the property market has been squeezed out, and the capital markets such as the stock market have not risen on a large scale. Therefore, a large amount of funds have flowed into the "wooden barrel", such as the phenomena of "bean you play" and "garlic you are malicious" that have occurred this year, and they have been pushed to all aspects of food, clothing, housing and transportation through the price transmission mechanism, bringing about price increases and pushing up inflationary pressure.
On the other hand, some economists also believe that structural adjustment is inherently inflationary. Shen Minggao pointed out that, for example, in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the growth rate of household income in the future will exceed at least not less than the nominal GDP, which means that the increase in consumer demand will bring inflationary pressure.
Therefore, inflation around us is not only a global factor, but also closely related to China's money supply, economic development model and macro-economic regulation. There is no doubt that inflation has come to us; It is very likely that inflation will continue and even peak next year.
actively responding to inflation
the most realistic problem before us is how to launch a successful wealth defense war against the background of inflation. Inflation has always been the biggest enemy of wealth, for the simple reason that inflation makes the purchasing power of money in our hands decline and our money becomes less and less valuable. This effect is more obvious when inflation intensifies. For example, the recent price increase is staged like a series, which not only has an impact on low-income residents, but also middle-income families feel great pressure.
traditionally, the simplest methods are "hoarding" and "saving". "Dolphin (hoard) clan" is a popular word recently. Go to the supermarket to snap up edible oil, rice, flour and toilet paper, which have been preserved for a long time, and hoard them to avoid the risk of price increase. Purchase products that can't be preserved, such as vegetables, restaurants, etc., by means of group buying and looking for low prices, so as to achieve the purpose of saving expenses.
There is nothing wrong with "dolphins" and "governors", but due to the improvement of living standards, the expenditure on daily necessities has become smaller and smaller in the total expenditure. Although these methods have the purpose of protecting wealth in the context of inflation, the effect is limited, which can be said to be a negative coping style.
A more active way to deal with it is to take advantage of the property that the capital market rises with inflation during the inflation period, convert cash into physical assets as much as possible, and share the benefits in the process of rising capital prices, so that our wealth will not shrink, and it is possible to beat the pace of inflation and be an inflation winner successfully.
A typical example is that the rising prices of agricultural products make our dining tables more and more expensive. As consumers, we have to bear the increased expenses brought by the rising prices of edible oil, sugar, vegetables and meat. But as investors, we can get much higher returns from the commodity markets such as soybeans, sugar and corn. What is gratifying is that with the improvement of investment channels, ordinary individual investors can participate in the commodity market through QDII and commodity index funds without "hoarding" tons of commodities. Which benefit is greater between one entry and one exit?
Gold is also a choice to consider. This round of inflation is caused by excessive currency issuance. The research report from the World Gold Council shows that there is a certain correlation between the price of gold and the change of currency issuance. When the money supply in the United States increases by 1%, it will bring about a .9% increase in the price of gold. When the second round of quantitative easing policy in the United States was launched, the international gold price hit the integer mark of $1,4 per ounce. Of course, there are many factors that influence the price of gold, but as a special commodity, the function of gold in dealing with inflation deserves investors' attention.
from the performance of the stock market, there are also many investment opportunities around the main line of inflation. On the one hand, in the capital-driven inflation, the capital market is expected to improve, and a moderate inflation level will help the stock market maintain a steady upward trend; On the other hand, some listed companies that benefit from inflation in the stock market are expected to achieve good performance, such as "coal dancing", agriculture and medicine sectors that have recently strengthened are typical examples.
Although theoretically speaking, the real estate market belongs to the benefit sector of inflation, investing in real estate can play a role in fighting inflation. However, from the current macro-policy environment, investing in the real estate market is facing greater policy risks. Since the beginning of this year, policies to strictly control the real estate market have followed one after another, including purchase restriction orders, higher loan interest rate costs and even inability to obtain bank loans, and investors have to face higher tax costs. Therefore, in the short term, real estate investment is difficult to resist inflation.
How do economic experts view inflation
Abstract: How is the current inflation formed? How will inflation develop in the future? This is everyone who is deeply worried about inflation.