Up to now, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China's economy has been more than a year. Although the epidemic has been effectively controlled domestically, whether the economic stimulus policies introduced due to the epidemic can be sustained in 2021 and how to exit them have become hot topics of recent discussion.
topic.
Among them, monetary policy has attracted the most attention. Recently, policymakers have frequently stated that they will not make a sharp turn and will continue to support small and micro enterprises represented by private enterprises.
On the 21st, Vice Premier Liu He proposed that we must grasp the continuity, stability and sustainability of policies, vigorously support the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and financial institutions must continue to improve their capabilities so that they dare to lend, are willing to lend, are able to lend, and will
Loan; On the 22nd, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the reform and development of the banking and insurance industries in 2020, saying that it will further improve institutional measures, focusing on promoting the implementation of policies, implementing classified policies, and supporting the healthy development of private enterprises.
It can be seen that monetary policy will still maintain considerable support for small and micro enterprises.
Judging from last year, the support effect is quite obvious. The latest statistics from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission show that according to the inclusive standard, the current loan balance of small and micro enterprises is 15.09 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 32%; the loan interest rate of small and micro enterprises continued to decline in 2018 and 2019.
On the basis, it will drop by 0.82 percentage points in 2020.
It should be said that at a time when market entities are still facing many difficulties, it is still necessary to continue to provide support in terms of credit and solve the problems of difficult and expensive financing.
However, while monetary policy supports the real economy, it is not uncommon for funds to flow into the property market and stock market through corporate loans and consumer loans, pushing up asset prices.
In the real estate market, housing prices in hot cities have risen again on the basis of their already high levels. Phenomenons such as lotteries to grab houses and daylight sales continue to occur in cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hangzhou. The stock market has seen a surge in new issuances of public funds last year. Throughout 2020,
With an increase of more than 3 trillion yuan, these funds have gathered together crazily in the A-share market. The valuations of holdings in public offerings have soared, and PE (price-to-earnings ratios) of more than 100 times have become the norm.
Although the rise in housing prices in hot cities and the partial bubble in the stock market cannot be entirely attributed to the inflow of credit funds, they are indeed a considerable driving force.
In reality, a business license and a real estate certificate can lend up to millions of low-interest funds (annualized at about 3.8%). Many people enjoy this and get the money to either buy a house or invest in financial management; and those born in the 1990s and even the 1995s
Statistics show that among the new "Christian Democrats" in 2020, those born in the 1990s accounted for more than half. How to get hundreds of thousands of low-interest consumer loans to buy funds has become a hot topic among the post-90s generation in 2020.
Fund returns significantly outperformed the index due to group holdings, which exacerbated this phenomenon.
In recent years, regulatory authorities have maintained high pressure on the entry of credit funds into the stock and property markets by rectifying market chaos, guiding funds to "move away from the weak and into the real", and have achieved certain results.
However, there are still some borrowers who go their own way and refuse to follow orders. The reasons include excessive credit granted by banks to borrowers, relaxed loan review, and inadequate post-loan management. There are also individual borrowers who deliberately evade bank supervision and obtain credit funds through deceptive means.
Invest in the stock market and property market.
In addition, "as high as the road is, so high is the devil." It is difficult for banks to monitor the flow of funds throughout the process, and it is difficult to determine whether the borrower's stock investment funds are credit funds or self-owned funds.
But there is no doubt that the inflow of credit funds into the stock and property markets is very harmful.
On the one hand, it weakens support for the real economy and affects the healthy development of the economy; on the other hand, it can easily spawn asset bubbles and even trigger a new round of financial risks.
Therefore, we cannot take credit funds lightly when entering the stock market and property market. We must remain vigilant and take strict precautions.
Recently, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have introduced policies to strictly prevent credit funds from entering the property market. Next, all banking institutions must carry out in-depth rectification of market chaos in accordance with the requirements of regulatory authorities. Credit management departments must conscientiously implement their respective responsibilities and strengthen the "three checks" on loans, especially
It is necessary to strengthen post-loan inspections and monitor the flow of funds. In particular, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of comprehensive consumer loans, online revolving loans and other fund flows to prevent credit funds from detouring into the stock market and property market.
Generally speaking, monetary policy still needs to continue to support the real economy, but it is also necessary to strictly prevent credit funds from flowing into the stock market and property market due to loose liquidity, pushing up asset price bubbles, and then becoming a financial risk inducement.