223a-share real estate sector index

Today, I will make another analysis of this A-share real estate sector index. This time, I will focus on technical aspects. Based on the trend of real estate index, I will make a simple analysis and judgment on whether this index and the trend of the sector have entered a bull market this week and share it with my friends.

first, a brief review of the recent trend of the real estate index and the sector.

1. In the previous article, I reviewed the trend of the real estate index in the past year. I won't go into details today, but simply review the current round of rebound: the real estate index started at 1132 on March 16th and rose by 32% to 1496 on April 1st, among which many stocks in the sector rose more than this range. For example, Shenzhen Real Estate rose by 52%, and Cinda Real Estate has doubled.

2. The previous trend of the real estate sector deviated from the trend of the broader market. After this round of surge, it was basically in a parallel position with the broader market. From the original drag, it jumped into the star of the A-share sector. This is due to one reason: First, the management appropriately relaxed the restrictions on the real estate industry, which was introduced in the previous articles. Second, the real estate sector and its index are in contradiction with the A-share market, and technically there is a need for a compensatory trend.

second, what will be the trend of the real estate index this week after this round of surge? I think many friends have this doubt. Let me start with the daily and weekly trends of the real estate index and analyze and judge the running direction of the index and the sector this week.

1, triple bottom structure, formed a strong support for this wave rebound. As can be seen from the daily trend, the real estate index has formed a triple bottom structure from the second half of last year to March this year, which is 1158 points on August 2 last year, 1168 points on November 2 last year, and 1132.83 points on March 16 this year. After comparison, we can see that the low click in March this year passed through the previous two lows and then rose sharply, which indicates that the main funds have long been lurking among them.

2. The sharp rise of the real estate index is supported by the volume of transactions. Last week, a huge amount was released for three consecutive days, which is the largest transaction volume level in history. With the sharp rise of the index, this shows that the foundation of this wave of increase is relatively solid. The only deficiency is that the transaction volume level last Friday was reduced compared with that on Thursday, which may also lead to a short-term peak trend. However, from the principle of sky-high prices, the real estate index will still have an upward impact next week, but it will be short-lived and then enter adjustment. If last Thursday's trading volume is regarded as the volume of days, if the trading volume reaches 15 points in three trading days this week, it can't be enlarged any more, which means that sky-high prices will appear and will soon enter the stage of substantial adjustment. This risk must be paid attention to, and never chase after high prices.

3. We need to be alert to the risk that the real estate index will enter a correction this week. From the distribution of technical indicators of the index, we can see that most of them have entered the stage of overbought or even passivation, and then go up, and the short-term main players are very willing to take profits, so it is still too early to judge that they have entered a bull market.

First, look at the daily MTM indicator, which has a strong indication for judging the top and bottom of stocks. This indicator has already crossed the position of 1 on March 3, which is the position to judge the top. We can see that most indexes and the tops of individual stocks all appear above 1, but all of them fall back quickly without exception. The MTM indicator of real estate index is currently at the position of 299.71, and MAMTM is as high as 174, which is short-term.

Secondly, the KDJ indicator has returned from the passive area to the overbought area. On March 23rd, KDJ entered the passivation area, and then the indicator no longer followed the index's new high, but entered the overbought area and fluctuated, which indicated that some large funds began to be shipped on rallies. As can be seen from the situation of main funds last Friday, the net outflow of main funds was 454 million yuan. After the market opened high and oscillated on Wednesday, the callback would follow one after another to repair the high KDJ indicator.

The analysis of the real estate index above is a follow-up analysis of my article on March 22nd. This round of rebound has exceeded the expectation of my last article. At present, it can't be judged that the real estate index has entered a bull market, and it can only be treated according to the standard of intermediate rebound. However, my judgment on the medium-term trend of the real estate sector has not changed: the medium-term trend is improving, the short-term callback is waiting for the opportunity. After all, as an index, it has increased by more than 3%, and individual stocks have increased even more, making profits. Under the current A-share trend, profit-taking is inevitable, and the short-term income of the main funds is huge, and the probability of opening high and falling back after the holiday is very high. Friends can be the target of medium-term attention, so avoid chasing high and avoiding losses.

In the sector,

the real estate industry chain is facing a collective outbreak, among which Sanxiang Impression 2 Lianban, Xincheng Holdings, Xinhualian, Digital Source Technology and Zhongnan Construction have daily limit, while Huafa, Binjiang Group and gemdale are among the top gainers.

The outbreak of the real estate sector also boosted the performance of home furnishing, with Shangpin home delivery rising by over 1%, Mona Lisa, Piano, hals, Dior Home, Zhibang Home, Jiangshan Oupai, Senying Window and other stocks leading the way.

The rise of the real estate sector is obviously due to the fact that since January 23, if the loan interest rate of existing commercial personal housing is anchored to LPR (loan market quotation rate) and the re-pricing date is January 1 every year, the monthly mortgage payment will be reduced. Experts in the industry said that lowering the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans is the key to reducing the housing consumption burden of residents and promoting the stabilization and recovery of the property market. LPR may still decline moderately in the next five years or more to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The digital economy sector is divided to some extent, but it still maintains a high continuity as a whole, with strong stocks performing well. Among them, Annie shares once again advanced to five boards in the form of one word, and Join-Cheer Software won the competition of Zhuolang Technology and completed four consecutive boards. In addition, Shenzhen Sanda A, Nantian Information, COSCO Haike, 263 and other stocks also performed well.

Today, Apple's industrial chain stocks fell across the board, with Luxshare, with a market value of 2 billion, falling by more than 9%. In the news, Apple's share price fell sharply overnight, falling nearly 4% at the close, and its market value fell below the $2 trillion mark. Apple's intraday share price hit a new low. In addition, some media reported that Apple informed Chinese mainland suppliers to reduce production of AirPods, AppleWatch and MacBook components this season on the grounds of weak demand. On the whole, the market still lacks confidence in consumer electronics, and the expectation is uncertain.

At the end of the article, individual stocks are mentioned, which have the following advantages:

(1) In February of 211, sales increased rapidly, the company was cautious in land acquisition, and its rights and interests were constantly improved;

(2) Among the top ten shareholders of the company, there are social security funds, pension funds, securities and money remittance companies, etc.

(3) The real estate sector is expected to exert its strength in the later period of the rising market, with a high safety margin.

Real estate has both pro-cyclical and financial attributes, and the average weekly growth rate is locked between -2% and 2%

The real estate sector has pro-cyclical and some financial and consumption attributes in the domestic A-share market. Pro-cyclical performance is the same as construction, coal, steel and other sectors, and the bull market is often the amplifier of its increase, and the company's production and operation also fluctuate periodically. However, when the market environment is not good, it can't maintain a stable increase like medicine, liquor, household appliances and other sectors.

The financial attribute is that in China, real estate is still the most important asset allocation variety for most families, which has the function of increasing and preserving wealth, and the property market in the core area is scarce. In the investment market, some funds bind the stocks of financial real estate together to make a combination, which shows that they are linked with big financial trends such as banks and insurance. In addition, real estate is a valuable fixed asset, which can act as cash flow after realization.

real estate has the property of consumption, and the proportion of R&D investment is not as much as that of scientific and technological enterprises, which belongs to traditional industries, but its repurchase rate is not as high as that of fast-moving varieties such as liquor and cosmetics, and the consumption frequency is low.

since June p>5, the real estate index started from 181.92, and the highest rose to 267.43 in June 215. At present, it is around 14 points. In the past 16 years, the index has risen about 6.7 times, and the compound annual rate of return is about 12%.

statistics show that since June 25, the number of trading weeks has exceeded 8. In the 82 weeks that can be counted, the average weekly increase times of the real estate index are between -2% and 2%. There are 11 weeks with an increase of more than 5% and 22 weeks with an increase of more than 1%. Twenty-two weekly increases exceeded 1%, and the proportion in 27 and 15 years was relatively high.

The week with the highest growth rate of real estate sector was November 14th, 28, which increased by 2.51%, followed by the trading weeks in February and July, 29, which increased by 14.61% and 14.5% respectively. The latest trading week with an increase of more than 1% is July 3, 2, when the index rose by 1.2%. Since the resumption of trading in 25, the weekly increase of real estate index has exceeded 1%, and * * * has occurred 22 times, accounting for 2.74% of the total trading weeks.

the weekly increase of more than 1% occurs in different market stages. This sentence is nonsense, but it is particularly interesting if you look at the weekly trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. The highest proportion of cattle-to-bear * * * occurred 9 times, followed by bull market relay 7 times, bear market relay 4 times and bear-to-cow relay 2 times. Among them, the statistical standard of cattle to bear is very close to the high point of the Shanghai stock index, less than half a year or even closer. Typical trading weeks took place in 15 years and 27. Looking at the market in 14-15, the real estate index rose by more than 1% in three weeks, namely, on June 5, 15, November 28, 14 and May 22, 15, and the growth rates in these three weeks were 13.98%, 11.59% and 1.3% respectively. The end date of that bull market was June 12, 15. It can be seen that the real estate sector has made great efforts to rise and is close to the end of the bull market.

The 6 times epic bull market from p>5 to 27 spanned 2 years in May. There are six trading weeks in which the real estate index rose by more than 1%, one on December 25th in 26 and five on February 16th, May 25th, July 2th, August 3rd and August 24th in 27. The meaningful data is that the bull market has passed 82.76% of the time, but after May 27, there are only five months left before the end of this bull market, and the real estate index rose more than 1% every week, but it appeared four times! This may indicate that the real estate index is rising, and it is more likely to happen in the late bull market.

note that two real estate sector indices

rose by more than 1% in the week of real estate index, once in July, 2, rose by 1.2% in the week of July 3, and rose by 7.65% in the week of July 1, and the real estate index increased by 2% for two consecutive weeks. Subsequently, it took dozens of weeks to digest the excessive gains brought by these two weeks.

Similarly, from February to early April in 19, the real estate index rose from 132.9 to 1773.94, with an increase of over 3%. This round of rapid rising market has caused the real estate index to reach a high of 188.97, and it has not broken through in the past two years. The real estate index peaked on April 9, and the Shanghai Composite Index peaked on April 8, and the highest stage rose to 3288.45 points.

January p>18 was the month when the whole real estate sector rose sharply. At that time, Taihe Group was the representative of the monster stock. From December 25th to January 24th, * * * harvested 8 daily limit, and from January 4th to 16th, it was five consecutive daily limit, which promoted the atmosphere of the whole sector.

Today, many real estate stocks are locked in January, 18. In that month, there was a serious split in the market, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.25%, but most sectors and individual stocks fell by a large margin. The real estate index rose by 14.28%, ranking second in all industries. After this round of real estate index rose sharply, in January of 16, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 2,638.3 points. After two years, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a high of 3,587.3 on January 29, with the largest increase of 36%. Subsequently, the Shanghai Composite Index went all the way down to 244 points. This round of bull market real estate sector once again verified that the real estate sector rose sharply at the end of the bull market.

through the analysis of the trend of the real estate sector, it is found that the three major indicators need to be closely watched. When the real estate index rises more than 1% every week, it is necessary to warn to some extent. Because this situation is more likely to happen in the stage of bull to bear, followed by bull market relay. In addition, it is also necessary to look at the weekly real estate index with two Lianyang, three Lianyang and even multiple Zhongyang lines, and count the stage increase and monthly increase of the real estate index. If the real estate sector is among the best, it is likely that the index will rise in the future, or worse, it will drive the whole market down.