The upgraded version of Rose of Time is a collection of investment notes published by Shan Bin in June this year. On the basis of the first edition in 2007, it adds new market insight and enterprise analysis in the past decade. This paper mainly introduces Shan Bin's investment ideas, experiences and insights in the past 26 years. Adhere to the investment philosophy that * * * grows with great enterprises and holds it for a long time, and take Kweichow Moutai and other enterprises as examples, repeatedly demonstrate the methods of finding great enterprises from multiple angles. However, the specific value evaluation method has not been discussed in depth and clearly. In this way, I have also gained a lot. Let me have a deeper and more thorough understanding of high-quality enterprise stocks, and I will be more stable, firm and confident on the road of investment.
In short, Shan Bin's comments on the stock market, investment ideas and investment notes are all chicken soup for the soul based on Buffett's value investment theory. * * * is divided into five parts, of which the last two parts: the fourth is to find Buffy's footprint, and the fifth is to bloom our lives, which belong to American travel notes and life essays respectively, and have little to do with investment theory, but they can also be regarded as a supplement to his investment memory.
The emphasis is on the first three parts. The first part is the general introduction, which is an overview of investment theory. The second part is six investment notes, describing their investment history and their understanding and feelings about investment. The third article is four interviews with Shan Bin by the media, which tells the core and internal logic of value investment.
"Invest in the jewel in the crown, hold it for a long time, and wear the river of time." This is the central theme of Time-its main content revolves around this sentence. Including value discovery, stock selection, embracing great enterprises, buying at a discount, having a margin of safety, long-term holding to gain time and compound interest.
Enlightenment of this book to me:
First, look for high-quality enterprises, as long as the first, not the second. Only invest in the crown jewels, and let others do the rest.
Second, be close to the times, feel life, read widely and think deeply. Ideas come from reading, experiencing and thinking. Insight and persistent belief determine how far you can run.
Third, look for excellent quality companies in the crisis. For example, this "king of vaccines" crisis, we are looking for companies worth cherishing. The event of longevity biological fake vaccine will promote the growth and expansion of the inventory of good vaccine drugs. At the same time, it has had a significant and far-reaching impact on the entire pharmaceutical industry in China.
Fourth, many value investors used to start with technical analysis, but in the end they all turned into value investment. Technical analysis can gain temporary benefits, while value investment can go further and be more stable.
Fifth, take long-term and relatively concentrated equity investment. Because there are few good companies, it will not reach 5%; Limited ability circle; Valuation is difficult.
But Bin used to be a technical analyst and a speculator. He said, "At that time, I believed that the vision of technical analysis could be extremely broad" and "I believed that the wave principle could reveal the important factors related to social progress or retrogression in the next period in advance". For this reason, he also wrote an article entitled "Historical Review of China from the Perspective of Technical Analysis" and gave a speech. From 2000 to 20001year, there was a stock crash in the Nasdaq market in the United States, and Nasdaq fell from more than 5,000 points to more than 1 000 points. At that time, relying on technical analysis skills, he thought that a historic opportunity had come. But in the end, it's just an afterthought. Buffett used to be a technical analyst, but he was no longer interested after drawing the chart of 10. Although technical analysis can't be completely denied, the transformation of value investment from technical analysis really needs savvy and opportunities.
Where there is weakness in human nature, the market will attack you. Greed, fear and luck will be punished by the market, which will remain unchanged for thousands of years. This is also the reason for the fluctuation of the capital market and the fundamental reason for the failure of smart speculators.
However, the fundamental reason for the three setbacks encountered by Binbin Oriental Harbor Private Equity Fund since its establishment is speculation. The 2008 financial crisis was overvalued and did not sell hard. The industry crisis caused by the corruption of 20 13 liquor plasticizer has not been adjusted accordingly. 20 15, the leveraged bull did not rest overseas, and the return of gambling stocks encountered a policy crisis. The root of investment failure is often speculation. Numerous facts have proved that we should insist on value investment at all times and resolutely refrain from speculation. It can be said that self-righteousness depends on luck, and the spring breeze is proud of preventing the hoof from slipping.
The book talks about stock selection from the aspects of industry, enterprise, management and price, which is divided into five points.
(1) The industry has a long snow slope and the enterprise has a thick wet snow, and its historical performance continues to be good.
? (2) There is a deep moat, a fortress of competition and a folk monopoly.
? (3) Financial stability and predictability, good return on equity and free cash flow.
? (4) There is enough room for underestimation within one's own understanding.
? (5) Leaders have excellent integrity and outstanding management characteristics.
For ordinary people, the difficulty of stock selection lies in valuation, but the realm of stock selection lies in common sense, and the form is summarized as intangible. The so-called no move wins.
For example, investment banks, do you know the advantages and disadvantages of banks? Do you know the difference between banks? Everyone knows that Maotai is good. Does it mean that wine is risky?
When it comes to stock selection, I think of Shan Bin's evaluation of Ermayina, which can be summarized as follows: dark clouds are mysterious and elegant. In particular, I have a good understanding of the Ma-style market principle of "customers first, employees second and shareholders third", and I have a complaint about the transformation of Ali's listing → delisting → re-listing, which is called lean. "When you meet Ma Hua Teng, you will definitely give Tencent extra points!" "Ma Hua Teng answered the questions of shareholders without any arrogance."
An investor has a preference and tendency for people, things and enterprises. The so-called conceptual identity is to know yourself and find your own prince charming. So, who is better, Ali or Tencent? No one can answer 100%.
For another example, Good Future and New Oriental are educational companies and extracurricular educational counseling institutions. There is a good business model to solve the pain point of unbalanced education in China. As long as the baton of the college entrance examination in China flies high, they will have a profitable territory. But they are the products of China's deformed and stale education reform. They can't be called great enterprises yet, because they haven't passed the test of competition and recession, so it's too early to call them great. China's educational resources have not been completely liberalized. If they are completely liberalized, there will be fierce competition that will reduce profits and valuations. But Dan Bin is more optimistic about them.
Many enterprises in China mostly introduce or imitate foreign business forms. Now it can't be called evergreen inheritance. It needs to be internalized, stable and externalized to the world, so that it can be called great and truly predictable.
Investment is a kind of practice, which requires foresight. Investment should have a thorough understanding of history, a profound understanding of reality, and an insight into the future. Finally, simplify the complex, take common sense as a means, lift weights lightly, and wait unhurriedly.
The Rose of Time is still very enlightening to me, and I have gained a lot from it. At the same time, the language is beautiful, the viewpoint is clear, and it is verified before and after. However, it may be the first time to launch a brand-new upgraded version. Although the signed version has typos, it is not worth mentioning.
Excerpts from classic quotations of Shan Bin's investment:
1. The essence of fluctuation is metabolism, while falling is to release risks and bring hope.
2. Stock trading is a dedicated business, and investment is to find a capable partner. Then I'll be a small trader.
The greatest investors will disappear with the passage of time, but some investment principles remain unchanged.
There are few excellent enterprises, and we hope that the enterprises we invest in are like pearls in the crown.
The result of a person's winning or losing in the market is actually a reward and punishment for his humanity.
6. Investment is like a lonely tortoise racing against time.
7. What is the hardest part of investing? My experience tells me that it is to stick to the right direction in the most difficult moment!
8. Buffett's greatness lies not in his wealth of $45 billion at the age of 75, but in his understanding of many things when he was young, and then he persisted all his life.
9. Some people are never really determined, because they never really think.
10, we just need to do what we should do and leave the rest to God.
There are two points here that are different from the author's understanding in the example. They were just discussed, not refuted.
1) In The Rose of Time, Shan Bin said, "A friend who came back from Canada once said,' I dare to invest in the United States for a long time, but I dare not in China. I said, if you dare not invest in China for a long time, you are even more afraid to come to the United States. "But the reason given by Bin is different from that understood by this friend who came back from abroad. What his friend said may be that China still lacks a sound system and mechanism, while the United States is a truly mature environment that has been washed by time and tested by the times. In addition, it may involve the protection of property rights, not just the degree and frequency of market ups and downs.
2) Inflation is the biggest thief, stealing you invisibly, but high-quality stocks are the best way to fight inflation, but you must insist on holding them for a long time. Understanding and looking for great companies, but Bin also said that the investment ratio is who sees far and accurately, who dares to hold heavy positions and who can persist. In the most difficult time, your view of the national movement is very important. This is very harmful and shows the source of confidence in investment. With self-confidence, we can be steady, accurate and ruthless. The problem is that great people say yes, but only Bole can't! Before you find greatness, you must be a great yourself.
In the argument of large enterprises, the word "Maotai" can be said to be the word with the highest frequency in this book. The reason cited is that Maotai's business model is simple. As long as the liquor culture in China remains unchanged, as long as the Chishui River is still flowing, and as long as the local red sorghum is still growing, Maotai will be a golden mountain of charcoal liquid. The root cause of Maotai shortage is the development and prosperity of China and the rise of the middle class. Undeniably, besides scarcity and monopoly, Maotai's "red gene" is one of its important values.
3) The calculation of intrinsic value should be a classic case of "easier said than done" in this world. ..... Although the intrinsic value is hard to estimate, there is a clue to trace. In the long run, the percentage of intrinsic value change is usually proportional to the percentage of enterprise book value change. ..... But one thing is certain, enterprise valuation needs to be combined with qualitative and quantitative, and science and art can be combined to estimate a reasonable investment value area of an enterprise. Since even the investment guru Buffett is evasive when talking about valuation, please don't blame us for not publishing accurate valuation methods to the world! The valuation problem is lightly brushed aside, and the logic behind it is not attached. Besides, Ba Lao responded to Munger's answer, "I have never seen him use a calculator to calculate the enterprise value in the office." "Some problems need to be solved in private." These words are humorous, and they are easy to avoid.
Where there is weakness in human nature, the market will attack you. If there are any loopholes in writing articles, readers will look for them. Please forgive the rose of time. I like you, but I prefer the truth.
Finally, I like Shan Bin's sentence best: "Greed, fear and luck will be punished by the market, which will remain unchanged for thousands of years. This is also the reason for the fluctuation of the capital market and the root cause of the failure of smart speculators. "
Encourage you with this sentence: invest in a great enterprise, hold it for a long time and cross the river of time!
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