-Economic crisis in 2008
You are from Yale and I am from Harvard.
Working on Wall Street or Optics Valley
The hibernating bear wakes up and growls.
People throw away everything in their hands in horror.
The bar was crowded with unemployed friends.
Let's take a walk in the street.
At the gate of the government, I opened the cigarette case.
Click new york 1929.
Tears, to no avail.
Splash, thousands of Margaret petals
Every piece of broken is asking:
Will definitely come. Tomorrow,
Will it be better?
The global financial system is facing the biggest crisis since 1929. How did the disease that started in the American real estate subprime mortgage market lead to a profound global crisis? Why is Wall Street so fragile? What role should the hand of the government and the hand of the market play in this crisis and how to save the global economy from collapse?
The subprime mortgage crisis finally completely broke the myth of Wall Street. After Bear Stearns was shot down, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States with a long history of 1.58 years, was also dying. Whether it is bankruptcy or rescue, Lehman, which once had a good reputation, has come to this step, which is definitely an indicator event in the post-war financial history. Because this is not a case, but a big outbreak of systemic risk.
At present, the world is experiencing a once-in-a-century financial crisis.
What is the financial crisis
The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures).
Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis, banking crisis and other types. Its characteristics are that people are more pessimistic about the future economy, the currency value of the whole region has depreciated sharply, the economic aggregate and scale have suffered huge losses, and economic growth has been hit. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil.
The causes of the financial crisis
The most fundamental reason for the financial crisis in the United States is that the decline in housing prices in the United States has led to the decline in the solvency of subprime borrowers. The savings rate of American residents has been declining. When the debt of American residents is too high to support the housing bubble, the housing market adjustment is inevitable, which leads to a sharp increase in the default rate of subprime and prime floating rate mortgages, and more and more mortgage borrowers are unable to repay their loans.
Once these mortgages are collected, they will cause credit losses. The subprime mortgage crisis intensified, leading to the bankruptcy or takeover of major financial institutions on Wall Street, and the moderns on Wall Street finally came to an end.
/kloc-In September of 0/5, the US government refused to rescue Lehman Brothers, and Lehman Brothers announced that it would seek bankruptcy protection. The financial crisis caused by subprime mortgage will deepen, and the downward trend of the global economic boom cycle is almost a foregone conclusion.
So far, three of the five independent investment banks on Wall Street have disappeared within half a year, and more financial institutions are waiting for the fate judgment. An ultimate question has emerged: has global financial capitalism come to an end, and should the government be more involved in the micro-operation of the market?
Greed and fear are reflected in all aspects of the subprime mortgage crisis. Richard Bitner, an American real estate mortgage expert, revealed the terrible truth in his book The Truth of Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis-almost every link was full of lies and false assessments. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, rebuked "a considerable number of loans in recent years are neither responsible nor prudent", which is almost synonymous with madness and irrationality in the language system of the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
But the fact is by no means so simple. The subprime mortgage crisis not only exposed the madness of financial institutions, but also exposed the madness of the economic development model led by the US government. Real estate loans in the United States are the basis for supporting loan consumption. Buyers buy houses through loans, obtain consumer loans through house appreciation, and sell real estate loan products to the world through various financial institutions-a chain of loans, consumption and production is formed with real estate as the center, and global dollar assets are constantly gathering in the United States in the form of liabilities or creditor's rights. In the chain of mortgage securitization, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play an important role in implicit government guarantee.
Isn't it? It was the intervention of the American government that made the American bond securitization market flourish in the late 1980s. It is the measures to stimulate consumption by using mortgage loans that make the American economic data in the Clinton era colorful. It is the implicit guarantee of the US government that makes billions of subprime products sold around the world through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It can be seen that the subprime mortgage crisis is not only the disillusionment of the financial capital market, but also the bankruptcy of the national policy of financial capitalism led by the American government to save the American economy and save consumption. If the financial market collapses, it is also the collapse of the American government and American financial capitalism.
The innovation ability of American financial market is unparalleled, but no financial market can resist institutional fraud, and the subprime mortgage crisis just shows a large area of institutional fraud, from rating agencies to guarantee companies.
In the process of counterfeiting, financial assets have exploded. According to the data of McKinsey Global Institute, the proportion of global financial assets in global annual output has soared from 109% in 1980 to 3 16%. In 2005, the global core assets stock reached US$ 65,438+040 trillion. In the same period, the proportion of financial assets in Britain rose from 278% to 359%, while that in the United States rose from 303% to 405%. Josef Ackermann, CEO of Deutsche Bank, said: "I no longer believe in the self-repair ability of the market." The government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and rescued Bear Stearns, indicating that the government's control ability has reached its limit.
After the subprime mortgage crisis, the international financial market will undergo profound changes. The intuitive performance is that the turnover of financial assets has declined and investors have become more and more conservative. Joseph Yam, president of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said, "In the end, everyone may find it necessary to go back to the basics and re-recognize the fundamental purpose of financial intermediation, and the regulators responsible for protecting public interests should also realize that the simplest method may be more cost-effective in the long run." In fact, we don't want to be confused by the complicated financial derivatives on Wall Street. The basic function of financial market is financing, not letting greedy people get huge profits.
Investors began to protect themselves, hold cash and invest in the most conservative assets in order to survive the severe winter: investors in all markets reduced their leverage positions; Investors turned to safe assets such as cash and US Treasury bonds. The subprime mortgage crisis shows that financial derivatives should have clear boundaries and financial markets tend to be conservative, which recognizes the conservative trend. The global financial market will not turn around again until the current economic downturn caused by subprime mortgage is safely passed.
Countries that once believed in the American financial innovation system will become more cautious. They don't trust the complex financial system that is difficult to control. The subprime mortgage crisis will make them see the destructive power of unregulated financial markets, and sovereign investment funds and financial innovation in various countries will be more cautious.
But it can be believed that financial capitalism will not return to the road of government supervision, but will move towards the road of strengthening supervision. Otherwise, the US government will continue to help Lehman Brothers and dozens of financial institutions facing the threat of bankruptcy. Possible regulatory measures include tightening capital requirements, making more transparent requirements for off-balance-sheet assets of financial institutions, controlling the credit rating of rating agencies, punishing counterfeiters more severely, and being cautious about government credit guarantees in financial markets.
The subprime mortgage crisis is a process of scraping the bone and curing the poison, and it is the poison of American financial capitalism. Just as the Great Depression of 1929 gave birth to Roosevelt's New Deal, the bankruptcy of Enron and WorldCom gave birth to Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and the subprime mortgage crisis will also give birth to new control measures and new financial products.
* For ordinary people, the deepest feeling is not the financial crisis, but the economic slowdown, the inability to borrow from banks and the inability to overdraw credit cards.
The current financial crisis in the United States is once in a century.
The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures).
The subprime mortgage crisis finally completely broke the myth of Wall Street. After Bear Stearns was shot down, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States with a long history of 158, declared bankruptcy. The once famous Lehman fell to this step, which is definitely an indicator event in the post-war financial history. Because this is not a case, but a big outbreak of systemic risk.
At present, the world is experiencing a once-in-a-century financial crisis. In the context of globalization, such a crisis cannot only concern the United States or the rich. Everyone in China should pay close attention to the changes it will bring to our lives. ...
-Look at the international changes:
On1October 20th, 2008, 10, the Korean government implemented a large-scale financial rescue plan.
On1October 20th, 2008, 10, the Dutch government made a large-scale capital injection into ING.
In 20081October 20 10, Latin American central banks will jointly deal with the financial crisis.
On June 65438+1October 65438+July 2008, Germany adopted a rescue plan of 500 billion euros.
On June 65438+1October 65438+July 2008, Citigroup lost its title as the largest bank in the United States.
On June 5438+1October 65438+May, 2008, US stocks reappeared "Black Wednesday".
On June 65438+1October 65438+April 2008, the United States announced the details of the first rescue plan.
On June 65438+1October 65438+March 2008, Britain injected 37 billion pounds into banks.
On June 5438+1October 65438+February 2008, the euro zone countries adopted a large-scale rescue plan.
On June 10, 2008, the Spanish government approved the establishment of a fund with a scale of 30 billion euros.
10 On June 9th, the Financial Supervision Committee of the Icelandic government announced that it would take over Kaupthing, the largest commercial bank in the country.
On June 8, 2008, 10, Sweden announced that it would provide assistance to Kaupthing's branch in Sweden.
On June 7, 2008, the Icelandic government announced that it would take over Landsbanki, the second largest local bank in financial difficulties.
On June 7, 2008, 10, the Dow Jones index fell below 10000 for the first time in four years, which is also the first time that the index fell below 10000 since June 2004.
The Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on China's Economy
First, it is the huge debts of American households that have absorbed China's expanding production capacity.
The American financial crisis will first bring psychological impact. This crisis will inevitably create a pessimistic atmosphere in China's capital market. The assets of these financial institutions held by China will shrink, and overseas investors may also sell China's assets in large quantities to save themselves at home, thus putting downward pressure on China's capital market. But more importantly, China's economy is highly extroverted, and its total import and export value exceeds 60% of GDP. In the past, it was precisely because Americans borrowed money for consumption that they digested China's excess capacity, thus making American finance and China create a double harvest. Now, the financial collapse in the United States will inevitably end the borrowing and consumption pattern in the United States, and China's manufacturing industry will also be affected.
The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, there will be a new financial crisis around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to the development of China.
Tao Dong: China has not been greatly affected by the subprime mortgage crisis.
Tao Dong said that fundamentally speaking, China is the only country that has not been affected by the subprime mortgage crisis on a large scale. Although capital account control has saved China again, it is inevitable that China will open its finance and capital account after its economy develops to a certain extent. ...
Shen Yin countries: The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is limited.
Although due to the intervention of central banks, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was once eased. However, with the further exposure of some problems in recent days, the situation seems to have become more serious, and the overseas securities market has also undergone drastic adjustments. ...
Citi Economist: The subprime mortgage crisis has no direct impact on China.
If the United States enters a depression, it is estimated that the American economy will slow down 1% and China's economic growth will slow down 1.3%. The United States may cut interest rates by 0.25% in the second half of the year, and may continue to cut interest rates 1 or twice next year, and finally reach the neutral interest rate level of 4.5% by the end of 2008. ...
Ba Shusong: The subprime mortgage crisis has little impact on the China stock market.
Regarding the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the China stock market, Ba Shusong thinks that the impact is not significant. He believes that the subprime mortgage crisis has a greater psychological impact on the China stock market, and its direct contact channel is that companies listed in the two places may have price disputes. ...
Greenspan: The American financial crisis comes once in a century.
In an interview with NBC, Greenspan said that this is the worst financial crisis he has ever seen in his career, and it may last for a long time and continue to affect the real estate prices in the United States.
Rogers: I don't think the financial crisis will bottom out in my lifetime.
Rogers said that this is a long road. In fact, this seems to be something we will never see in our lifetime. He said: "Bernanke and his partners are coming to the rescue, which may temporarily cover up the problem." Of course, I don't know how long they can cover up, and then the disaster will continue. "
Bernanke proposed to transfer the bad assets of financial companies.
Bernanke proposed to transfer the non-performing assets in the balance sheets of American financial companies to a new institution. This plan is another effort by Paulson and Bernanke, who failed to restore confidence in the financial and real estate markets.
Paulson: I have confidence in the flexibility of the US financial market.
Paulson said that a healthy capital market is the main skeleton of a vibrant American economy and the key to the American economy and American family welfare. We should have confidence in the flexibility of American financial capital market.
Kahn: The economy will recover next year.
Kahn said that although the recent financial turmoil in the United States has increased the potential threat to economic development, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will gradually recover in 2009. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop to about 4% in 2008, which will be reflected in the economic slowdown of the United States, Europe and Japan, and the economic growth of most emerging market countries and developing countries will slow down.
Soros: Britain is next.
In an interview with BBC reporter, Soros expressed his views on Lehman Brothers' application for bankruptcy protection and the plight of American International Group (AIG). He said: "I'm worried that, to a certain extent, we are still in the process of entering the storm, not coming out of it."
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In response to the financial crisis, a series of national initiatives
China
Reduce the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans.
Personal savings deposit interest tax is temporarily exempted from 65438+1October 9.
The Federal Reserve and five other central banks cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
The Federal Reserve's 900 billion blood transfusion banking system
* * * Also cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
EU countries will raise the minimum deposit guarantee amount
The European Central Bank has increased its capital injection into the financial system.
Britain announced that the new rescue plan will cost 500 billion pounds.
The Japanese Prime Minister ordered the large-scale development of additional economic countermeasures.
The Bank of Japan injects funds into the money market three times a day.
Russia injected 950 billion rubles into banks on a large scale.
Russia sets new price limits on the stock market.
The Australian central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points, the highest in 16 years.
Spain set up a 30 billion euro fund to support banks.
The Netherlands raised the amount of guarantee for its bank deposit account to more than 654.38 million euros.
The German government has introduced many emergency measures.
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Behind the scenes of the 2008 financial crisis
The culprit: investors who spend too much money.
It is the infinite expansion of consumption and overdraft desire that is behind the scenes. The United States relies on the bubble in the capital market to maintain consumers' overdraft behavior, and the market has been enlarged uncontrollably.
The second culprit: financial practitioners with bulging pockets
Wall Street, under the banner of financial innovation, launched various high-risk financial products and continuously expanded the market, resulting in a growing bubble.
The third culprit: regulators who turn a blind eye.
The loose regulatory system in the United States has also led to this storm to a certain extent, and the entire regulatory system has obviously failed to keep up with the speed of financial innovation.
The fourth culprit: obedient Asian countries
The traditional economic growth model of Asian countries has given the United States unlimited motivation to implement loose monetary policy, transport liquidity and make it have sufficient liquidity.
It happened that we had to write a paper about the economic crisis before, and the information was not deleted. I sent it all to you. I hope it helps you! ~