It is said that we all speculate in stocks to make money, but it is not enough to invest all our money. We still want to borrow money to make money, so we mortgage our own stocks and continue to buy stocks, and some banks even give you financing without your mortgage.
This has accumulated a lot of risks.
One day, the crazy stock market fever showed signs of fading, and the stock also fell. Many people cut their meat and leave because they can't pay back their loans, and many people take mortgaged properties because they can't pay back their money. Many banks have to admit compensation when lenders can't repay their debts because they don't have enough collateral. Chain reaction, personal bankruptcy, bankruptcy of credit institutions, economic depression, inflation.
In fact, American political and economic circles are all politicians. They really dare not compliment their ability to manage the national economy. They don't know the patients in their own country. The rapid and sustained policy of raising interest rates is actually the fuse of this crisis. This measure led to a large number of loans that could not be repaid, triggered a series of bad debts, and led to the domino collapse of many financial companies in the United States.
The American government wants to curb excessive investment, reduce the scale of credit, and control the pushed up prices, so it has adopted a policy of tightening monetary policy, including raising interest rates, raising bank deposit reserves, issuing bills to absorb money market funds, and so on.
After the US interest rate falls, the appreciation ability of the US dollar will be reduced, and international capital will be withdrawn from the US dollar and converted into euros, pounds and even RMB with higher interest rates. And withdraw funds from the US financial market and invest in Europe, Asia and even Africa.
When the dollar depreciates, because it is an international settlement currency, international commodity prices will rise, which will lead to worldwide inflation. The United States can print its own dollars and can never afford to buy anything, but it will continue to depreciate. The rest of the world can't stand it. Soaring prices, coupled with the decline in commodity exports and production, have brought about a series of negative effects.
China's interest rate cut is passive. It seems to be imitating the rescue measures of the United States and European countries. In fact, China itself wants to cut interest rates. If interest rates are not cut, the RMB exchange rate will rise. I don't know how many times more people sell dollars to buy RMB than sell RMB to buy dollars. Can the exchange rate not rise? After the RMB exchange rate rises, export commodities will be more difficult to sell.
Only by cutting interest rates can we maintain the exchange rate balance and stimulate domestic consumption and credit.
February 2007 13
The mortgage risk in the United States began to surface.
HSBC Holdings has increased its bad debt reserve by US$ 6,543.8+0.8 billion for its subprime mortgage business in the United States.
Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, reduced its lending.
New Century Finance, the second largest subprime mortgage institution in the United States, issued a profit warning.
March 2007 13
In the new century, Finance announced that it was on the verge of bankruptcy.
US stocks plunged, with the Dow down 2%, S&P down 2.04% and Nasdaq down 2. 15%.
April 4(th), 2007
After cutting staff by half, New Century Financial Company applied for bankruptcy protection.
April 24(th), 2007
Existing home sales in the United States fell by 8.4% in March.
June 22(nd), 2007
U.S. stocks pulled back at a high level, with the Dow down 1.37%, S&P down 1.29% and Nasdaq down 1.07%.
July 2007 19
Bear Stearns's hedge fund is on the verge of collapse.
August 2007 1
Macquarie Bank said that investors in its two high-yield funds face a loss of 25%.
August 3(rd), 2007
Bear Stearns said that the US credit market is in the worst state in 20 years.
European and American stock markets plunged across the board
August 6(th), 2007
Real estate investment trust company, American Housing Mortgage Corporation filed for bankruptcy protection.
August 9(th), 2007
BNP Paribas, France's largest bank, announced its involvement in the US subprime mortgage, and the stock markets of most countries in the world fell.
Metal crude oil futures and spot gold prices plummeted.
August 2007
Central banks around the world injected more than $326.2 billion in 48 hours to save the market.
The Federal Reserve injected 38 billion dollars into banks three times a day to stabilize the stock market.
August 2007 14
Dozens of companies, such as Wal-Mart and The Home Depot, announced huge losses due to the subprime mortgage crisis.
The us stock market quickly fell to a multi-month low.
August 2007 14
The three central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan injected more than $72 billion to rescue the market again.
Asia-Pacific central bank recapitalizes the banking system.
August 2007 16
The share price of the largest commercial mortgage company in the United States plummeted and faced bankruptcy.
The US subprime mortgage crisis worsened, and the Asia-Pacific stock market suffered the biggest decline since 9 1 1.
August 2007
The Federal Reserve lowered the window discount rate by 50 basis points to 5.75%.
August 20(th), 2007
The Bank of Japan injected 1 trillion yen into the banking system again.
The European Central Bank plans to step up efforts to rescue the market.
August 2, 20071
The Bank of Japan once again injected 800 billion yen into the banking system.
Australia's central bank injected A $3.57 billion into the financial system.
August 22(nd), 2007
The Federal Reserve injected another $3.75 billion into the financial system.
The European Central Bank has increased its refinancing operation by 40 billion euros.
August 23(rd), 2007
The Bank of England lent 3140,000 pounds to commercial banks to cope with the crisis.
The Federal Reserve injected another $7 billion into the financial system.
August 28(th), 2007
The Federal Reserve injected another $9.5 billion into the financial system.
August 29(th), 2007
The Federal Reserve injected another $5.25 billion into the financial system.
August 30(th), 2007
The Federal Reserve injected another $654.38 billion into the financial system.
August 3, 20071
Bernanke said that the Fed will work hard to prevent the credit crisis from damaging economic development.
Bush promised that the government would take a package of measures to save the subprime mortgage crisis.
September 2007
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%.
8 June 2007 10
The European Union held a two-day meeting of finance ministers, mainly discussing the slowdown of the US economy and the depreciation of the US dollar.
June 65438+10/October 65438+March 2007
The US Treasury Department helped major financial institutions to set up a fund (super fund) worth $654.38+000 billion, which was used to buy mortgage securities in trouble.
23 June 2007 +65438
The American Bankruptcy Association announced that the number of consumers filing for bankruptcy in September increased by 23% year-on-year to nearly 69,000.
24 June 2007 10
Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, Merrill Lynch, the world's top brokerage firm, announced a loss of $7.9 billion in the third quarter of 2007. The day before, Nomura Securities, Japan's largest brokerage, also announced a loss of $620 million in the quarter.
2007130 October 65438
Swiss bank, the largest asset in Europe, announced that its first quarterly loss in the past five years reached 830 million Swiss francs in the third quarter due to the loss of subprime-related assets.
200719 October
After nearly two months, Bank of America, Citibank and Morgan Stanley reached an agreement, agreeing to spend at least $75 billion to help the market out of the subprime mortgage crisis.
2007126 October
Bank of America began to lead Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase to raise $80 billion for Superfund.
2007128 October
Overall deterioration of housing market indicators in the United States.
According to the National Association of Realtors, in June, 5,438+10, the sales of existing homes fell for the eighth consecutive month, with an annual rate of 4.97 million, and the inventory of houses increased by 1.9% to 4.45 million. In the third quarter, the quarterly rate of S&P/ Shiller National Housing Price Index decreased by 1.7%, which was the biggest single-quarter decline in the index's 2 1 year history.
65438+February 4, 2007
Buffett, the investment giant, began to buy junk bonds issued by TXU, a Texas utility company, for more than $265,438 billion.
65438+February 6, 2007
The American Mortgage Bankers Association announced that the foreclosure rate climbed 0.78% in the third quarter.
65438+February 7, 2007
US President Bush decided to freeze some mortgage interest rates in the next five years.
65438+February 2007
The five central banks of the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Switzerland announced joint efforts to rescue the market, including short-term auctions and foreign exchange swaps.
65438+February 2007
The European Central Bank guarantees to provide funds to financial institutions in the euro zone at a fixed interest rate.
65438+February 2007
The Federal Reserve submitted a package of reform measures to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis.
The European Central Bank announced an additional loan of about $500 billion to the euro zone banking system for two weeks.
65438+February 2007
The conventional bidding tools of the Federal Reserve injected $20 billion into the market in 28 days.
65438+February 24, 2007
Merrill Lynch, the Wall Street investment bank, announced three sale agreements to ease financial difficulties.
65438+February 28, 2007
Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street investment bank, predicts that Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Merrill Lynch may write down another $34 billion in subprime securities.
65438+200814 October
According to the data of American Banking Association, the phenomenon of consumer credit default has intensified, and the overdue repayment rate has risen to the highest since 200 1.
65438+2008 10 month
Moody's, a rating company, predicts that SIV bondholders will lose 47% of their assets.
June 2008 65438+1October 65438+July
The subprime mortgage losses are serious, and Standard & Poor's rating company began to implement a new evaluation method for bond insurers.
The Bush administration intends to relax the supervision of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
In February last year, the number of new housing starts in the United States decreased by 14.2%, with an annual rate of10.006 million, the lowest in 16 years.
65438+2008122 October
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points.
65438+2008124 October
The insurance regulatory authorities in new york, USA, tried to provide $654.38+0.5 billion in financial assistance to bond insurers.
65438+20081October 30th
Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points
February 2008 1
In June, the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States decreased by 1.8 million, the first decrease in more than four years.
February 9(th), 2008
The statement of the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven pointed out that the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has increased.
February 2008
In order to prevent foreclosure, the six major mortgage banks in the United States announced the "lifeline" plan.
Buffett is willing to provide reinsurance for 80 billion US municipal bonds.
February 2008 18
Britain decided to nationalize Northern Rock Bank.
February 2008 19
The Federal Reserve put forward a proposal to prevent high-risk mortgage loans, which is the most comprehensive remedy since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis.
February 20(th), 2008
Germany announced that state-owned banks were caught in the subprime mortgage crisis.
February 2, 20081
British Parliament approved the nationalization of Northern Rock Bank.
February 28(th), 2008
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, claimed to cut interest rates even if inflation accelerated.
March 5(th), 2008
ADP employment in the United States decreased by more than 20,000 in February, and the dollar hit a record low against the euro.
March 7(th), 2008
The Federal Reserve announced two new measures to increase liquidity, one is a regular bidding tool, and the other is a decision to start a series of regular repurchase transactions.
March 2008
The Federal Reserve and four other central banks once again announced that they would continue to inject liquidity into the market and ease the pressure on the global money market.
March 2008 13
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other regulatory officials will propose stricter supervision of bank capital.
American officials predicted the economic recession for the first time.
March 2008 14
Bear Stearns, an American investment bank, sought emergency financing from JPMorgan Chase and Federal Reserve Bank, and the market became more worried about the health of the American banking industry.
March 2008 17
The Fed unexpectedly announced that it would cut the window discount rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%.
JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Stearns for about $240 million.
March 2008 19
The Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate cut, and hinted that it would continue to cut interest rates.
March 20(th), 2008
The Bank of England met with the senior managers of the five major investment banks and indicated for the first time that it would provide more financial assistance to domestic banks.
March 24(th), 2008
The Federal Housing Finance Committee of the United States allowed the Federal Housing Loan Banking System of the United States to increase its holdings of more than $654.38+000 billion of MBS issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
March 27(th), 2008
The liquidity of the European money market was once again in a hurry, and the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank jointly injected capital.
The Federal Reserve provided $75 billion in bonds to primary dealers through tslf.
.............................. (omitted)
May 2(nd), 2008
In April, the number of non-agricultural workers in the United States decreased by only 20,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, which was better than expected.
IMF Chairman Dominique Strauss-Kahn is worried that the good performance of the US employment report in April will be short-lived and the economy will not recover this year.
The Fed expanded the TAF scale from $50 billion to $75 billion, and expanded the currency swap line with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.
The White House said that the US economy has shown no signs of recession so far.
In Halifax, England, house prices fell for three consecutive months in April, with a monthly rate of 1.3% and an annual rate of 3.7%.
May 3(rd), 2008
JPMorgan Chase believes that the US financial crisis will not end soon.
May 4(th), 2008
FHFB pointed out that interest rate cuts and tax cuts alone cannot solve the subprime mortgage problem, and the US government must take active actions.
May 5(th), 2008
Former IMF Chairman Rato pointed out that the most difficult period of the credit crisis has passed and the recent rebound of the US dollar is normal.
The US ISM non-manufacturing index in April was 52.0, with an expected median of 49. 1, which was also the highest level since 65438+February last year.
The Federal Reserve injected 1 1 billion dollars of temporary reserves into the market through overnight repurchase operations.
Buffett, president of Berkshire Hathaway Investment Company, believes that there is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates further in the future.
According to a survey by the Federal Reserve, American banks continue to tighten the standards and conditions of corporate and consumer loans because of concerns about the increasingly bleak economic prospects.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben alan greenspan pointed out that it is too early to judge that the credit crisis triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market has ended.
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, predicted that the US housing market would deteriorate further, endangering the overall economy.
May 6(th), 2008
The U.S. Treasury Department put pressure on lending institutions to speed up the solution to the mortgage problem.
Wall Street's Big Three-Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Lehman Brothers all plan to lay off employees in the near future.
The Federal Reserve provided a total of $75 billion for the 28-day TAF.
Fannie Mae announced a loss of $210.90 billion in the first quarter of this year, with a loss of $2.57 per share. It is expected that the losses will continue to worsen next year.
Nancy pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, called for a second round of economic stimulus plan.
UBS, the largest bank in Europe by assets, confirmed that it lost1154 million Swiss francs (199 million US dollars) in the first quarter due to huge asset write-downs. The bank also announced that it will lay off 5,500 people by the middle of next year.
May 7(th), 2008
Former US Treasury Secretary Si Nuo pointed out that the United States is approaching the end of the interest rate cut cycle, but the economy will continue to slow down.
US Treasury Secretary Henry Henry Merritt Paulson said that the US financial market is gradually recovering from the credit crunch, and the worst of the credit crisis may have passed, but it will take several months to completely solve the market problems.
Federal Reserve Horn hinted that interest rates are close to the target level that needs to be adjusted.
Federal Reserve official crozet Werner said that the Federal Reserve attaches great importance to the housing market.
In March, the NAR sales index of existing homes in the United States decreased by 65,438+0.0% to 83.0, which was the same as expected.
The U.S. House of Representatives will debate the housing rescue plan proposed by the Democratic Party, which supports the government to finally purchase foreclosed houses as high as $654.38+05 billion and provide assistance to about 500,000 homeowners facing foreclosure. But the White House threatened to veto the plan.
Financial tycoon Soros said that the most critical moment of the global financial crisis has passed, but the US economy has just begun to feel the impact of the crisis.
May 8(th), 2008
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Henry Merritt Paulson predicted that the U.S. economy will accelerate later this year, and the tax rebate check can help it out immediately.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben alan greenspan said that the worst stage of the credit crisis has passed, but there is still a long way to go before house prices fall.
The two major European central banks have announced that they will keep interest rates to fight inflation.
In the first week of May 3rd, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits decreased by 654.38+0.8 million to 365,000. The result is better than expected.
The monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States unexpectedly dropped by 0. 1% in March.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to establish a mortgage insurance fund with a scale of 300 billion U.S. dollars and provide billions of dollars in subsidies to homeowners.
May 9(th), 2008
Citigroup plans to divest more than $400 billion of non-core assets in the next two to three years.
American International Group, the world's largest insurance company by assets, suffered losses for the second consecutive quarter, dragging down its share price by 7%, and said it planned to increase its capital by $65.438+0.25 billion.
1 Quarter The number of foreclosures in Britain increased by 17% compared with the same period of last year.
The European Central Bank said that due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, banks in the euro zone have raised their credit standards, making it increasingly difficult for enterprises and families to borrow from banks.
May 2008
The U.S. government has put forward conditions for the new housing rescue plan of the House of Representatives, demanding that taxpayers' funds should not be used.
Despite the global market turmoil, the overall profit of HSBC Holdings Limited increased in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.
Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase Group, pointed out that even if the market crisis ends, it does not mean that the United States will not fall into recession
Chicago Fed President Evans claimed that the Fed's current monetary policy stance balances the risks of economic weakness and inflationary pressure.
Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said that the serious financial market problems in the past few months have not been completely solved, and the US economy has slowed down significantly.
The Bank of England reported that credit conditions continued to tighten in April.
May 2008 13
The Bank of England said that it will continue the fund auction for three months in June and July, but will reduce the auction scale to 5 billion pounds.
The European Central Bank said that under the fixed interest rate of 4.00%, it will withdraw 23.5 billion euros from the market through a one-day liquidity operation.
The All-UK Building Mutual Association, Britain's largest mortgage lender, said it would cut the fixed mortgage interest rate by at least 0.3 percentage point.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed that the Fed's emergency liquidity injection would help ease the pressure on the financial market, but the market has not fully returned to normal.
Yellen, the governor of federal reserve bank of san francisco, said that she was very worried about the financial crisis in the United States and still worried about the possibility of further decline in house prices.
Flint, the British housing minister, said that the annual decline of housing prices in Britain may reach 5- 10% this year, and the government cannot predict the specific severity at present.
May 2008 14
William mcdonough, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank and now vice chairman of Merrill Lynch, said that the financial crisis originating in the United States should have passed the worst period, given that various measures taken by the Federal Reserve to rescue the market have begun to take effect.
David Rosenberg, an economist at Merrill Lynch, said that the US economy is in recession, and the tax rebate plan that the government will implement later this quarter is expected to only temporarily stop the decline in consumer spending.
The British Prime Minister announced a 300-million-pound housing rescue plan.
The slowdown in US economic growth eased inflation caused by soaring food and energy prices: CPI rose by 0.2% in April, and the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0. 1%. Economists had expected both CPI and core CPI to increase by 0.2%.
Royal Bank of Canada said that its second-quarter earnings report to be released at the end of May will include about C $855 million (US$ 864 million) of pre-tax asset write-downs.
May 2008
Mizuho Bank: The loss of subprime loans in the fourth quarter was 300 billion yen, and the loss related to subprime loans in fiscal year 2007/08 was 645 billion yen.
Jordan, director of Swiss National Bank, pointed out that the credit crunch pressure caused by the global credit crisis in some areas is easing, but it is still too early to fully recover.
International Monetary Fund Chairman Kahn pointed out that the worst period of the global economy affected by the financial crisis has passed; Emerging economies are not immune from the crisis.
The American Housing Builders Association's house price index in May was 19, which is expected to be 20. The confidence of home builders declined in May.
May 2008 16
The initial value of the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan dropped to 59.5 in May, which was lower than expected.
The number of new housing starts in the United States unexpectedly increased in April, the largest increase in two years. After seasonal adjustment, it was 654.38+0.032 million, an increase of 8.2% from the previous month.
A BBA spokesman pointed out that the procedures for setting Libor are being discussed with the central banks of major countries, including the Federal Reserve.
May 2008 17
Some banks outside the euro zone used the wider collateral accepted by the European Central Bank to combine some assets with lower ratings. This issue has attracted the attention of the European Central Bank.
May 2008 19
The reliability of LIBOR is questioned.
Brokers plan to introduce new york interest rate benchmark.
Dr doom: the credit crisis is far from over.
Will soon hit the retail industry.
Federal deposit insurance corporation: the United States will face a new round of credit crunch
RICS said that in 2008, British house prices may fall by about 5%, and house transactions may fall by 40% year-on-year.
Britain's Rightmove house price index increased by 2.2% in May, a record high.
Moody's: The decline in commercial real estate prices in the United States in March was at least the highest since 2000.
Investment tycoon Buffett: The impact of the American credit crisis is far from over.
Senior members of the US Senate Banking Committee reached an agreement on the housing assistance plan.
May 20(th), 2008
The US Senate Banking Committee passed legislation to create a new government-backed mortgage rescue plan.
Barclays Bank, Britain's third largest bank, is preparing to raise funds to acquire a British or American competitor.
Dresden Bank: The credit crisis has entered the second stage, and the worst is not over yet.
Lehman Brothers pointed out that the real estate market recession in the United States and other countries exceeded expectations.
2 May 20081
Investment guru Soros said that the British economy will be unable to avoid recession.
According to the British Mortgage Association, the continuous tightening of mortgage loans has had a great impact on the demand and activities of the housing market, so it is expected that house prices in the UK will fall by about 7% this year.
May 22(nd), 2008
National Association of British Builders: It is estimated that the decline of British house prices in 2008 will be within 10%.
On Thursday, the Bank of England said that it had invested 65.438+03.95 billion pounds into the banking system at the interest rate of 5.0% in the weekly repurchase operation, which will expire on May 29th.
Federal Reserve Governor crozet Turner said that the ongoing real estate market will "gradually" recover from the crisis.
According to the data of the Federal Office of Real Estate Enterprise Supervision, the decline of US house prices accelerated in the first quarter, reaching a record 1.7% compared with the end of last year.
May 23(rd), 2008
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pointed out that the loose monetary environment may be the root of the subprime mortgage crisis.
Within three months, the dollar, the pound and the euro libor all rose.
Goldman Sachs said that so far, new york's labor market has performed well, and the first wave of layoffs triggered by the credit crisis was mainly concentrated in other parts of the United States.
In April, existing home sales in the United States fell for the second consecutive month, housing inventory rose sharply, and house prices fell sharply.
May 26(th), 2008
Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of new york, said that no country can cope with the global financial crisis alone, and regulators will have to find ways to cooperate on the existing basis.
The UK Hometrack house price index fell 1.9% in May, the biggest annual decline since June 2005.
Moody's said that the current downturn in the US housing market is experiencing "the beginning of the end", which will be a long and painful process.
American investment tycoon Buffett pointed out that the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis was attributed to banks taking risks in mortgage loans.
..................... (omitted)
On the whole, the development of the crisis is gradual and the crisis is far from over. It is a long process from gestation to outbreak, and from outbreak to rescue. It takes a long time to complete the rescue and restore nature, and it is impossible to expect immediate results in the short term.
Similarly, it is inevitable that China will be seriously affected by it, and it has just begun!