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Will the total amount of our national monetary fund continue to expand? Will there be a phenomenon of "financial disintermediation"?
Yes Financial disintermediation is still the future trend. Especially after entering the "weak monetary environment" with low M2 growth, financial disintermediation has intensified in the process of monetization in South Korea, China and Taiwan Province, China. This has become one of the most important financial environments for the current and future development of the banking industry in China. This kind of financial disintermediation not only leads to the structural liquidity shortage of the banking industry under the overall liquidity easing scenario.

It has also brought an impact on the development of the banking industry. The problem of financial disintermediation in China is somewhat special. The development of modern banking in China is very short, which should be counted from the recovery of Agricultural Bank of China in 1979. After a long period of time, China's financial industry was dominated by banking, and the total assets of the banking industry accounted for more than 99% of the total assets of the financial industry.

Bank loans account for more than 90% of the total social financing. This unbalanced structure is not conducive to improving the quality and transaction cost of financial services, but also increases the dependence of economic development on this industry, thus increasing the systemic risk of economic development.

Extended data:

Under the general trend of financial disintermediation, the banking industry should not only speed up the business transformation from traditional commercial banks to comprehensive service banks, but also adjust its business structure, increase credit input to small and medium-sized enterprises, and more importantly, intensify financial innovation, improve its comprehensive financial service capabilities, and provide more meticulous and thoughtful services to large customers and retail customers.

There are indications that financial disintermediation in China is accelerating. For commercial banks, the sources of debt-side funds are diverted, and loans are also squeezed by the shadow banking system and the bond market. In addition, technical disintermediation is becoming more and more fierce under the competition of third-party payment. With the deepening of financial reform in China, financial disintermediation has undoubtedly brought chills to the banking industry.

Under the trend of financial disintermediation, the old management mode of commercial banks appears rigid and outdated. Financial disintermediation is an irreversible trend. Experts and insiders unanimously expressed the same view: it is an inevitable choice for the survival and development of the banking industry to actively adapt, intensify innovation, promote strategic transformation and realize the transformation from traditional commercial banks to modern comprehensive commercial banks at an early date.

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