This paper mainly analyzes the systemic risks in the short-term bull market from the aspects of macro-economy, recent stock market capital flow and investor psychology, so that investors can have a comprehensive understanding of the risks in the short-term stock market and use them in recent investments. Keywords: psychology of venture capital in bull market system 1. Cause analysis of stock market risk 1. Stock market risk. Greater stock market risk will bring a series of problems, such as heavy losses of shareholders, difficulties in financing the stock market, the impact on investors' consumer confidence, and the slowdown of national economic growth. Watson, a famous scholar, wrote in china securities journal on June 5438+00 that the China stock market was overheated. There is no stock market that does not fall, but rises too fast and too much. It is not only necessary, but also necessary to make technical adjustments. 2. The necessity of systematic risk analysis. According to the nature of the risk and the different measures taken, the total risk of investment can be divided into two parts: systematic risk and non-systematic risk. Systemic risk is related to the overall movement of the market, usually manifested as the overall changes in a certain field, a certain financial market or a certain industry field. It has a large fracture layer and a wide design range, which often causes the price fluctuation of the whole class or group of securities. This kind of risk is also called "macro risk" because it comes from the influence of macro factors on the whole market. This kind of risk comes from the microscopic factors inside the enterprise, so it is also called "microscopic risk". Because of the information asymmetry in China stock market, investors (mainly retail investors) can't effectively use information to avoid unsystematic risks, so the analysis of unsystematic risks has little effect when analyzing the whole stock market. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the short-term risks in China bull market through the analysis of systemic risks. 3. Validity period of risk analysis-short term. This paper mainly studies short-term systemic risk, in which short-term refers to three months. The reason why I choose short-term is mainly because I am still optimistic about the China stock market for a long time, just a bull market. It takes a long time, and there will be twists and turns. How to control and avoid risks in time is particularly important. In view of the current "madness" of the stock market and the emergence of some short-term risks, it is necessary to analyze the risks in the stock market in time. Second, the short-term system risk analysis 1, the central bank's macro policy. In the "treasure chest" of the central bank's monetary policy tools, there are three world-famous "magic weapons": open market operation, rediscount policy and deposit reserve policy. China's open market operation includes RMB operation and foreign exchange operation. The main way of RMB operation is to issue government bonds and central bank bills. The People's Bank of China has raised the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points since May 6, 2007. This is the fourth time since the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio this year, so far the statutory deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks has reached 1 1%. In this increase, the frozen funds exceeded 654.38+07 billion yuan due to the increase in the deposit reserve ratio. So far, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has been raised four times this year, and the funds of financial institutions have been frozen by more than 700 billion yuan. To this end, since April last year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio by 3.5 percentage points seven times, raised the loan interest rate of financial institutions three times and raised the deposit interest rate of financial institutions twice. The last rate hike was in April 17. In its latest first quarter report, the central bank said it would take a multi-pronged approach to prevent the economy from overheating. Some analysts predict that the central bank may raise interest rates three times this year. A new round of macro-control is likely to have a negative impact on the performance of listed companies, and will also inhibit savings funds from entering the stock market to some extent. 2. China Securities Regulatory Commission warns of market risks. China Securities Regulatory Commission recently issued a notice to strengthen investor education and guard against market risks. 3.QDII products invest in overseas stocks. The CBRC issued a notice in May 1 1 allowing commercial bank products to invest in overseas stocks, which is an important breakthrough in domestic capital outflow. Moreover, in some developed countries in the west, the stock market is relatively mature and belongs to the investment stock market. Compared with the great speculative atmosphere in the domestic stock market, the income of QDII products will be relatively stable, which will attract more and more domestic investors' attention and actions, and the relative withdrawal of funds will have an adverse impact on the domestic short-term stock market. 4.CPI is "overheated". According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, in April, China's consumer price level (CPI) rose by 3.0% year-on-year. Among them, urban prices rose by 2.9% and rural prices rose by 3.4%; Food prices rose by 7. 1%, while non-food prices rose by1%; The price of consumer goods rose by 3.4%, and the price of service items rose by 1.9%. This is the second consecutive month that China's CPI has exceeded the annual target of 3% set by the central bank this year. CPI rose as high as 3.3% in March. Experts said that there is a certain lag in the transmission of CPI by enterprise commodity prices. In April, the commodity prices of enterprises rose significantly, indicating that CPI has an upward trend, and it is estimated that it will remain at around 3% in the future. 5. The price-earnings ratio is too high. Capital broke the shackles of value and the market bubble began to expand. According to the statistics provided by Bloomberg, after the close of April 30th, the overall P/E ratio of Shanghai Composite Index was 40.34 times, and the P/E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 39.77 times. If the earnings of listed companies increase by 40% in 2007, the dynamic P/E ratios of Shanghai and Shenzhen constituent stocks and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index based on the performance in 2007 are 28.8 1 times and 28.4 1 times respectively. Considering the cost of capital and the long-term growth rate of listed companies 15%, the dynamic P/E ratio of about 28 times is still within the acceptable range of bull market. However, when the Shanghai Composite Index crossed 4000 points, the market P/E ratio calculated by the expected income in 2007 had reached 29.82 times. The valuation level of the market is beginning to break away from the scope of value support, and the risk of overheating is gathering. The lifting of the ban soared in June and May. Judging from the timetable for lifting the ban on restricted shares such as "small non-"and "small non-",it is expected that the reduction of non-small non-small shares will usher in a record amount in May. Statistics show that in May, 2007, the amount of restricted shares has risen to1310 million yuan, an increase of 53/kloc-0 million yuan compared with 78 billion yuan in March, with an increase of 68.08%, which is more than double that in April, which is a record (teaching cases and examination papers) At the high level of 4000 points, there is a deterrent to the takeover funds; For the shareholders who have lifted the ban, if it is judged that there is not much room for the stock price to rise in the afternoon, it is likely to peak and fall back, and cashing in on rallies while the market is still hot will suddenly increase the supply of stocks. 7. The unexpected factors will disappear in the second quarter. The probability that earnings per share of listed companies continue to exceed expectations in the second quarter is almost zero; On the contrary, due to the rising base, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue in the second, third and fourth quarters of this year may gradually fall back. In addition, it is worth noting that investment income accounts for a large proportion in the factors that form the income growth of listed companies at present, which is particularly obvious in non-blue chips. This will increase the risk of performance fluctuation of listed companies. At present, many analysts define the dynamic P/E ratio of the market in 2007 by the growth of 78% in the first quarter, which reflects the blind optimism of some investors. With the disclosure of the second quarter results, this optimism will fade. Even in terms of annual growth, 40% profit growth of listed companies cannot be maintained for a long time. This also means that once the earnings of listed companies return to the normal speed, that is, the growth level of 15%, the overall market valuation will be difficult to support a sharp rise. While most large-cap blue-chip stocks and heavyweights are stagnant, a large number of poor-performing stocks and low-profit stocks without fundamental support, with a little concept of cross-shareholding and brokerage equity, will become small "star" stocks, "one person gets the word, and chickens and dogs ascend to heaven". Once the follow-up funds are weak, it is very likely that there will be major adjustments, which will lay the groundwork for the subsequent market development of the broader market. 8.b shares are good. The enthusiasm of investors to participate in B shares is unprecedented. At the end of March, the number of B-share accounts opened was still three figures. By the end of April, it has soared to 69 18 households; On May 8th, the number of daily B-share accounts exceeded 1 1,000 for the first time. Only three days later, this record was refreshed to 38,000. The surge in the number of accounts opened will inevitably increase the capital flowing into B shares, and where will these funds come from? Inevitably, some investors will withdraw some funds from A-share investment. 9. Foreign capital fled. China stock market continues to rise, and it is rare for international investors to withdraw their funds on a large scale. According to the American Overseas Chinese News, although the China stock market continued to rise, in the past period, international investors rarely withdrew from China's concept stock funds on a large scale. A follow-up survey of nearly 10,000 investment funds in the world by the American fund research institute EPFR shows that in the second week of May, international investors withdrew $574 million from EPFR China Equity Fund, which is the first net outflow of such funds since mid-June this year, 65,438+10. 10. Institutions and funds (social security) reduced their positions. The first quarter report shows that the fund reduced its positions in a large area in the first quarter. Affected by market adjustment, many fund managers began to implement defensive investment strategies, and many funds decided to reduce their positions to avoid the drastic market fluctuations and bring greater losses to fund holders. The fund's lightening behavior is not only large, but also common. More than 60% of the partial stock funds that disclosed quarterly reports today have reduced their positions, and the largest one is close to 30% of the fund's net value. Among all kinds of funds, closed-end funds reduced their positions by 6.68 percentage points, actively allocated 6.65 percentage points and stocks by 4.8 percentage points. Institutional investors began to reduce their investment. Following the announcement by the Social Security Fund at the end of April that it would reduce its holdings of A shares, China Life recently announced that it would not increase its holdings of A shares after 4,000 points. At the critical moment of China's transformation from a "policy city" to a "capital-driven city", the short-term risk of the stock market is increasing without the promotion of capital and large institutions. 1 1, over 60% of retail investors, and part of the funds turned to real estate. There is a report in Shanghai Real Estate Times that when the stock market made money and bought a house to live in, it was "an armchair strategist" and settled down. The article wrote: After making money in the stock market, I returned to the property market and bought a suite to settle down. Since the Spring Festival, this situation has been staged in Shanghai. And 19% of the respondents said that "having money to invest" in the stock market will speed up the purchase plan. The above is to analyze the risks existing in the short-term stock market from the perspective of some systemic risks. Of course, there are many other macro factors including systemic risks, such as the expected increase in stamp duty. The outstanding performance of these factors in the short term has increased the risk of the short-term stock market. Third, the psychological analysis of investors According to the different investment motives of investors, we can divide investors into three types: transactional investors, economic investors and safe investors. Most of our retail investors are transactional investors. Trading investors seem to have ADHD, and they always like to constantly change their chips in order to get short-term gains. Although they have also heard that they need to invest in stocks for a long time in order to get more income, they will not accept this investment idea easily. Once they enter the stock exchange, they will have an irresistible impulse to trade. The reason why they do this is that they are motivated by strong interests. I always hope that I can make a profit as soon as I buy stocks, but when I don't make a profit, I'm afraid I won't be trapped, so I keep trading. Therefore, there is a unique phenomenon of "one win, one draw and eight losses" in China stock market, and among these 80% loss-making shareholders, retail investors account for the vast majority. Even in a bull market, trading investors rarely make a profit. It is retail investors, a huge trading and investment group, whose psychology and behavior will appear some strange phenomena, which are highlighted by herding and time madness. The stock market is a market composed of various investors.