Suppose you think of buying an index as a gamble, which depends on the risk ratio of winning or losing. Let me make a hypothesis first. Since we are talking about index funds, we are willing to hold them in the medium and long term.

This is the weekly K-line chart of the Shanghai Composite Index. It should be noted that there are many indexes now, and the 50 index has risen well recently, but I still use the Shanghai Composite Index as a reference.

On the far left is 20 15 12 months, which can also be regarded as 20 16 1 month, exactly two years, with an index of 3600 points.

Similarly, the leftmost low point is around 2700 points.

Now it's 3300 points, assuming the upper and lower opportunities are the same, then it's about 3600-3300=300 points up, which is about 10% increase; Downward, 3300-2700=600, with a decrease of about -20%.

If the odds are the same, it seems unlikely.

However, you can also see that the upward trend of the index is quite obvious. In other words, the upward and downward risks are different. 3200 can be regarded as a support, so the downward risk becomes 3300-3200= 100, which is about a 3% decline.

So I want to be on the safe side and enter the market in batches. If you are unlucky enough to buy and fall, don't add it when it falls to around 3200, and add it when it rises again.

If you are lucky, it will rise to 3600 when you buy it. Don't rush to add, wait until this position is firm.

Personally, I am more optimistic about the index of 20 18.

Just an extra reminder, there are quite a few index funds at present. Last year, we mainly used consumer funds and the 50 index. The former won the glory of Maotai, while the latter won the national team. If you want to buy an index fund, I suggest you allocate 50 indexes and 300 indexes first, and I won't say much about the logic behind it. You can buy the rest according to your own analysis.

Good luck on 20 18!