First, the financial crisis has accelerated the changes in the world economic structure and helped to enhance China's right to speak.
Before the financial crisis broke out, the Group of Seven (G7), composed of the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada, played an important role in coordinating economic policies, not only for developed countries, but also for the whole world economy. The international financial crisis took the G20 summit as a watershed, gradually replacing the G7, and began to play an increasingly important role in coordinating the global response to the financial crisis. In other words, in the past, finance ministers and central bank governors of G7 member countries could "give orders" to the global economy, but now it is impossible. More and more emerging and developing countries, represented by China, have been closely integrated into the global international division of labor chain. The economic status of traditional developed countries is relatively weakened, and the influence of new forces on the global economy is becoming more and more prominent. Without the participation and support of these emerging forces, many global economic problems cannot be solved at all.
In this situation, China's status, influence and voice are constantly improving. For example, some senior positions in important institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are held by China people; China's voting rights in the World Bank increased from 2.77% to 4.42%, making it the third largest shareholder after the United States and Japan. China's position and voice in global economic governance have made a great leap, and its role has basically changed from passive to active, from periphery to core, from cooperating with discussions to participating in decision-making. Of course, this process is tortuous and difficult, and it needs unremitting efforts to continuously improve China's international status and influence.
Second, lower prices of bulk products are conducive to the reform and development of China.
Recently, the prices of precious metals such as gold have plummeted, and the prices of international commodities such as oil have also shown a steady downward trend. Of course, there are international hot money speculation, geopolitical risks, changes in the US dollar index and other factors, but from a fundamental point of view, insufficient demand should be the most important reason. The global economic recovery is weak, especially the growth rate of emerging economies has generally slowed down, temporarily bidding farewell to the high growth period, facing serious overcapacity and needing structural adjustment. The global economic downturn will inevitably lead to a decline in demand for bulk commodities, and it should be a matter of time before prices fall. Because we are a big importer of major commodities such as oil and iron ore, things are cheaper, our import costs are saved, and the energy and raw material costs of enterprises are correspondingly reduced.
In the past few years, emerging economies have experienced serious inflation, a considerable part of which is caused by rising commodity prices. The current price drop has also eased the imported inflationary pressure that plagued in the past. In addition, for a long time, under the extensive growth mode, the prices of resource products in China have been depressed. Although a lot of work has been done to rationalize the prices of resource products, the reform has not been put in place. At present, international commodity prices are falling and domestic inflation is relatively moderate, which provides a good space for accelerating reform in this field. China should seize the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, earnestly promote the market-oriented reform of the resource price formation mechanism, and give full play to the positive role of market means in resource allocation and elimination of backward production capacity.
Third, shrinking external demand and increasing friction directly impact China's exports.
The momentum of world economic recovery is obviously insufficient, and international institutions have repeatedly lowered their economic growth expectations, including the US economy, which has high hopes, and the growth rate has been lowered from 1.9% to 1.7%. Credit cards and the subsequent borrowing and consumption methods have always been very popular in the United States, and the financial crisis has brought a huge impact on the consumption concept of the American people. Within three years, about 5 million American families have closed their credit card accounts, and Americans are still afraid to spend a lot in spite of the high unemployment rate. The situation in Europe is not much better. Some countries have tightened their finances, such as Greece. In the past three years, the economy has shrunk 1/5, people's living standards have declined 1/3, and half of the young people have no jobs. The United States and Europe are China's main trading partners, and they have a hard time and buy less from us. In the past, our export growth was generally above 20% per year. It's hard to keep double digits now. Last year it was 7.9%. This year, China's total foreign trade import and export volume will strive to increase by about 8%.
Global trade and economic growth are interrelated. Rapid economic growth, rapid trade growth, economic growth, rapid trade growth. In 20 12, the growth rate of global trade was only 2.5%, which was lower than half of the average level in the past 20 years. According to the forecast of WTO, the global trade growth in 20 13 years is only 3.3%. The most important thing is that whenever the world economy is expanding, major developed countries will actively advocate free trade, and when the world economy is depressed, major developed countries will sacrifice the banner of trade protection. 20 12, trade protectionism is fierce. China * * * suffered 77 trade remedy investigations initiated by 2/kloc-0 countries, involving a total amount of US$ 27.7 billion, up by 1 1.6% and 369% respectively. Since the financial crisis, global market demand has weakened, competition has intensified, trade policies of various countries have become more "self-centered", and various trade and investment barriers have increased significantly. Since the beginning of this year, China's trade protection has expanded from traditional manufactured goods to new energy fields such as photovoltaic, which has caused an unprecedented impact on China's new energy industry. At present and in the future, the trade friction faced by China presents a trend of normalization and complication. Trade friction will run through the whole process of China's transformation from a big trading country to a powerful trading country, and it will be a long-term and arduous task to deal with trade friction.
Fourth, the inflow and outflow of hot money has increased the financial risks in China.
Hot money, also known as hot money or speculative short-term capital, is a short-term speculative fund that flows rapidly in the international financial market in pursuit of the highest return and the lowest risk. In order to make huge profits in the shortest time, hot money makes waves in the international market, quickly enters and exits the market, creates a fanatical atmosphere, and then quietly arbitrage away when the price is high, plundering huge wealth, and even triggering financial and even economic crises.
At present, developed economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan are trying their best to help the economy, and they have introduced quantitative easing or even ultra-quantitative easing monetary policies, and the released money has flowed on a large scale around the world. Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign exchange reserves have changed from the relatively stable situation of 20 12, and have risen sharply. There are many factors behind the international hot money flow, especially the rapid appreciation of RMB in the short term, which has brought great pressure to China's export industry. 20/kloc-from March to may, about 400 billion yuan of hot money from abroad flowed into China. The large-scale inflow of hot money has greatly increased the pressure of passive investment in foreign exchange in China. In the first five months, China's foreign exchange accounted for 1.58 trillion yuan, 3.2 times that of the previous year. Hot money is mainly for chasing spreads and exchange differences. The interest rate of RMB 1 year deposit reaches 3.5%, which is much higher than the dollar with almost zero interest rate, or buy bank wealth management products. Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 2% against the US dollar. Especially in the first five months, the real effective exchange rate has appreciated by as much as 5.6%.
Hot money "goes in and out". Recently, the expectation that the United States will withdraw from quantitative easing monetary policy in advance has gradually increased, and hot money has begun to retreat from emerging economies such as China. This means that the scale of RMB put on the market has decreased accordingly, and the so-called "money shortage" at the end of June also has a lot to do with it. Fast forward and fast out of hot money not only causes huge financial risks, but also brings great pressure to China's monetary policy regulation. Hot money has an impact when it comes, and there are risks when it leaves.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) The change of global trade pattern has brought severe challenges.
On the agenda of WTO, Doha Round negotiation has always been an important task. However, the original three-year negotiation period has been delayed again and again, and now it has entered 12 years. Moreover, because all parties are unwilling to compromise, the Doha Round has almost become a "chicken rib" and the prospects for negotiations are not optimistic.
Compared with the deadlock in multilateral negotiations, regional economic cooperation is booming, and bilateral negotiations are likely to replace multilateralism. The Obama administration has been fully promoting the TPP (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement) negotiations, and recently launched the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement) negotiations. Both TPP and TTIP aim to reshape new trade rules and regain the leading position in international trade. China and other emerging economies are excluded from the negotiations, and their aggressiveness is beyond words. The influence of TPP agreement on China's economy and trade has been very obvious. If Europe and the United States reach an agreement, it will become the largest free trade agreement in history: the tariff between Europe and the United States will be reduced to zero, covering 1/3 of world trade volume and 1/2 of global GDP. To a great extent, TTIP will change the world trade rules and industry standards, and challenge the quasi-trade alliance between emerging countries, especially BRICS countries. Then, emerging countries, including China, will be completely marginalized. In this way, for us, we cannot participate in the formulation of new investment and trade rules. The improvement of trade and investment standards in Europe and America has forced China and other emerging economies to further carry out a new round of reform.
Sixth, innovation competitiveness faces the risk of being expanded.
After the financial crisis, in order to revive local industries, developed countries such as the United States and Europe regard "re-industrialization" as an important strategy to reshape their competitive advantages, and have successively introduced policies and measures such as vigorously developing emerging industries, encouraging scientific and technological innovation, and supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, in the face of a new wave of industrial revolution centered on digitalization and intelligentization of manufacturing industry, China lacks innovation ability, and the gap with developed countries in Europe and America in the high-end technology field is at risk of being widened again.
Since the reform and opening up, China has actively attracted foreign direct investment, brought a lot of low-end technologies, and promoted China's technological progress. At present, some traditional comparative advantages of China's manufacturing industry are losing. For example, with the change of population structure, the labor cost shows a significant upward trend; With the soaring housing prices and the large-scale promotion of urban construction, the cost of land has greatly increased; In recent years, the cumulative appreciation of RMB has exceeded 30%, and China's export price advantage is no longer; Smog weather makes people's requirements for environmental protection higher and higher, and the environmental protection cost of manufacturing industry is greatly increased. Some multinational companies began to return to the mainland from China, or moved to Southeast Asia and other places to find cheaper labor markets. The speed of foreign capital flowing into China began to slow down, and the pace of technology introduction slowed down accordingly. Of course, now that we have mastered low-end technology, we need high-end technology, which has been strictly blocked in Europe and America and cannot be introduced, which urgently requires us to unswervingly follow the road of independent innovation.