The full name of PMI index is purchasing management index in English, and it is translated into purchasing managers index in Chinese.
It reflects the changing trend of economy.
2 Money supply
The total amount of money refers to the amount of money circulating in a country at a certain point in time. It is the total amount of money distributed among residents, credit system and treasury of enterprises and institutions. Money supply is an important variable affecting macro-economy. It has a very important relationship with income, consumption, investment, price and balance of payments, and is an important basis for the state to formulate macroeconomic policies. The balance between total social demand and total supply, from the demand side, mainly depends on whether the money supply is moderate.
People generally divide the money supply into different levels to measure, analyze and regulate according to the size of liquidity. In practice, countries have different definitions of M0, M 1 and M2, but they are all classified according to liquidity. M0 has the strongest liquidity, followed by M 1, and M2 has the worst liquidity.
At present, China also divides the money supply into three levels, which means:
M0: cash in circulation, that is, cash circulating outside the banking system;
M 1: narrow money supply, that is, M0+ demand deposits of enterprises and institutions;
M2: money supply in a broad sense, that is, M 1+ time deposits of enterprises and institutions+savings deposits of residents.
In these three levels, M0 is closely related to consumption changes and is the most active currency.
M 1 reflects the change of the capital shortage of residents and enterprises, and is the leading indicator of economic cycle fluctuation, and its liquidity is second only to M0.
M2' s liquidity is weak, but it reflects the change of future social total demand and the pressure of inflation. Money supply usually refers to M2.
3. Unemployment rate:
The barometer of economic development is closely related to the economic cycle. The rising data shows that economic development is hindered, and vice versa. For most western countries, the unemployment rate is around 4%, but if it exceeds 9%, it means that the economy is in recession. The data is compiled by the US Department of Labor and released at 2 1: 30 on the first Friday of each month.
4. Trade defects:
International trade is an important part of economic activities. When a country's exports exceed its imports, it is called a trade surplus; On the contrary, it is called a deficit. The trade data of the United States has been in a deficit state, with the emphasis on the expansion or contraction of the deficit. The expansion of the deficit is not good for the dollar, and vice versa. This data was compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and last month's figures were released at 2 1: 30 on a certain night in the middle and late months of each month.
5. Current account income and expenditure:
The current account is the main item in a country's balance sheet, which records the capital outflow and inflow between a country and foreign countries, including the import and export of goods/services, investment income, income from other goods and services and unilateral transfer. If it is positive, it is a surplus, which is beneficial to the domestic currency; On the other hand, it is not conducive to the national currency. The data is compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce and published at 2 1: 30 in the middle of each month.
6, capital account revenue and expenditure:
It mainly describes a country's long-term and short-term capital flows, including long-term capital, illiquid short-term private capital, special drawing rights, errors and omissions, and liquid short-term private capital. Today, with the increasing internationalization and liberalization of finance, the influence of capital account is no less than that of current account. The higher the degree of financial market opening to the outside world, the greater the impact. The observation method of its influence on exchange rate is basically the same as that of current account.
7. Description:
Interest rate is the return of borrowing funds or the price of using funds. A country's interest rate has a direct impact on the currency exchange rate. Because of the high yield, the demand for money with high interest rate rises and the exchange rate appreciates; On the contrary, it depreciates. The federal funds rate in the United States is determined by the Federal Reserve meeting.
8. Producer price index (PPI):
It mainly measures the price changes of various commodities in different production stages. Rising data show that production is booming, inflation is likely to rise, and the Fed tends to raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the dollar. On the other hand, it is not conducive to the dollar. The data is compiled by the US Bureau of Labor and released at 2 1: 30 on the second Friday of each month.
9. Consumer price index (CPI):
The price change index based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives is the most important data when discussing inflation. As the data rises, inflation may rise, and the Fed tends to raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the dollar. On the other hand, it is not good for the dollar. However, inflation should be kept within a certain range. Too high (hyperinflation) or too low (deflation) is not conducive to the exchange rate. The data is compiled by the US Bureau of Labor and released at 23: 00 in the third week of each month.
10, wholesale price index (WPI):
It is a price index compiled according to the weighted average price of bulk materials wholesale prices. Products included include raw materials, intermediate products, final products and import and export products, but do not include various services. When discussing inflation, one of the three most frequently mentioned price indexes is the same as CPI and PPI. Last month's data will be published in the middle of each month.
1 1, leading indicator:
It consists of stock prices, consumer goods orders, weekly unemployment relief applications, building approval rules, consumer expectations, changes in manufacturers' delivery orders, money supply, sales performance, changes in prices of sensitive raw materials, orders for factories and equipment, and average working weeks, and is an indicator for observing economic trends in the next 6- 12 months. Good data, rising exchange rate; On the contrary, it will fall.
12, personal income (personal income):
The sum of personal income representing various sources of income. Including wages and salaries, social welfare, expenditure and savings, dividend income, etc. The increase in data means that the economy is improving and consumption may increase, which is beneficial to the domestic currency; On the contrary, it is unfavorable. Prepared by the Bureau of Economic Research and released at 2 1: 30 on the first day of each month.
13. Inventory:
Including factory inventory, wholesale inventory and retail inventory. Mainly used to evaluate the production cycle. If the inventory is lower than the appropriate level, it will increase production, improve the economy and benefit the currency; On the contrary, it is unfavorable. The data is compiled by the US Department of Commerce and released at 2 1: 30 or 23: 00 in the middle of each month.
14, purchasing management index:
It is an important indicator to measure the manufacturing industry. Investigate manufacturing industry from production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports. The data takes 50 as the dividing point between strength and weakness, indicating that the improvement of manufacturing industry is beneficial to the currency; On the contrary, it means recession, which is not good for the currency. The data is compiled by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and released at 23: 00 on the first day of each month.
15. Durable goods order:
The so-called durable wealth refers to heavy industrial products such as automobiles and airplanes, and non-expendable property such as manufacturing capital wealth. The same is true of electrical appliances and other things. Durable goods orders represent the manufacturer's production situation in the next month, and the data is positively related to the currency exchange rate, but we should pay attention to the proportion of its defense orders. Orders for durable goods are counted by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are generally announced at 2 1: 30 or 23: 00 on the evening of the 22nd to 25th of each month.
16, equipment utilization rate (capacity utilization rate):
It is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment. It covers eight projects including production, mining, public utilities, durable goods, non-durable goods, basic metal industry, automobile and minivan industry and gasoline. Represents the capacity utilization degree of the above industries. When the equipment utilization rate exceeds 95%, it means that the equipment utilization rate is close to the limit, and the pressure of inflation will rise rapidly with the inability of production capacity, which is beneficial to the US dollar when the market expects interest rates to rise.
On the other hand, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle too much, and the economy is in recession, which is not good for the US dollar when the market expects interest rates to drop. Last month's data will be published in the middle of each month.
17, housing operating rate:
Generally speaking, new housing construction is divided into two types, individual housing and group housing. In theory, the increase in housing starts and building permits is more favorable to the US dollar, but other economic data should be considered comprehensively. Published every month from June 16 to June 19.