In fact, at the beginning of 2022, there was a great controversy about whether 2022 was a bull market or a bear market.

However, some domestic brokers seem to have a view that A shares have a seven-year cycle, that is, a seven-year cycle.

If A shares have a 7-year cycle, will 2022 be a bear market or a bull market?

Let's divide a cycle (seven years) into several parts:

(1) Bull-bear conversion.

(2) The bull market started.

(3) the bull market climax.

(4) oxtail bear shit.

(4) rebound in short positions.

(5) the shock in the bear market.

(6) the big bear market.

(7) Xiong Niu inflection point.

Since A shares have a seven-year cycle, are these seven years a stage every year?

Looking forward from the time axis, we can divide it into seven years: the first period is1991-1997 (before1991,the securities market began to explore), and the second period is1998-2007.

Looking at history, the trend of the first four cycles (one cycle every seven years) seems to be generally in line with the fact that every year is a stage, that is to say, there are two bull markets in seven stages. The first bull market was a bull market opening and a bull market climax. These two bull markets lasted for about two years. Another bull market is a rebound among bears and a shock among bears, adding up to almost two years, which is also considered a calf. That is to say, in these seven years, there are two years of Daniel and two years of calf.

But what is the effect of this division? What's the effect? If it was efficient enough before, what kind of forecast will it be in 2022?

Since the market can be divided into these stages, we can use this method to judge what A shares will look like in the future.

If combined with the recent bull market of A-shares, according to this standard, 2022 will be oxtail bear shit. However, in recent years, due to the influence of epidemic situation and external environment, the trend of seven stages in a cycle seems to be a little different from the past. At least some time ago, the Shanghai Composite Index broke 3000 points, but it soon came up again. This rhythm also makes many people unable to keep up.

In fact, even if it is really a seven-year cycle, as an individual investor, it is still necessary to operate from the domestic and international environment and personal knowledge, rather than blindly guessing the arrival of a bear market and holding a negative view. Therefore, we don't need to be too obsessed with whether 2022 is a bull market or a bear market. After all, it often happens that you lose money and you lose money. Only by careful study and analysis can you get what you want in the investment.

The above are only personal opinions, for reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice.