I. Impact on the local economy

The local traffic was interrupted, the transportation of products and raw materials was blocked, and production came to a standstill, which greatly affected the local GDP.

The transportation of coal and electricity is blocked, and the power plant is stopped or semi-stopped, which directly affects the local power transmission production.

Power failure, production stoppage. For those continuous production, which brings huge losses, such as petrochemical, chemical, paper and other continuous production industries.

When repairing roads, wires, poles, iron towers, vehicles and other items are directly lost, and vegetables, fruits and grain are lost.

Casualties.

According to the calculation of annual output 10 month, this disaster is equivalent to a total suspension of production for about 30 days, and the direct impact on China's GDP is = 30/300 = 10%.

The World Bank estimates that China's GDP in 2008 was about 10%, so due to the school disaster, the GDP will be reduced to about 9%.

Ministry of Civil Affairs: The snowstorm in 2008 has caused direct economic losses of111billion yuan.

In response to the freezing rain and snow disaster, donations (including material discounts) from all walks of life totaled about165438+95 million yuan, of which the Ministry of Civil Affairs directly received and donated 858 10000 yuan to the disaster-stricken areas through the coordination of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and the Chinese Red Cross Society and other local red cross societies received1370,000 yuan, 4565438 yuan.

2008 Insurance Industry Research Report: The limited impact of snowstorm compensation will give birth to catastrophe insurance.

Investment points:

As of February 10, the compensation expenditure was 104 billion yuan, and the estimated total compensation was between 5 billion and 8.5 billion yuan. We estimate that it is about 7 billion yuan. The lower insurance rate avoided the compensation disaster of insurance companies in this snowstorm. At present, agricultural insurance claims in key disaster-stricken areas only account for 4% of the total claims, while auto insurance claims account for 45%, which is closely related to the high coverage rate of auto insurance since the implementation of compulsory insurance.

Using the overall market share estimation, based on the total compensation of 7 billion yuan, it is estimated that the impact of snowstorm on China Property Insurance, China Pacific Insurance and China Ping An EPS will be -0.25, -0. 10 and -0.09 yuan respectively; According to the estimated compensation of 5 billion yuan, the impact is -0.20, -0.08 and -0.07 yuan respectively; If the estimated compensation is 8.5 billion yuan, the impacts will be -0.34, -0. 13 and -0. 12 yuan respectively. Because the market share of China Property Insurance in the hardest hit areas is higher than the overall market share, while the market share of CPIC and Ping An in the hardest hit areas is lower than its overall market share, the actual impact of Ping An and CPIC may be even smaller.

This snowstorm may lead to the birth of catastrophe insurance in China. Catastrophe insurance can certainly expand the scale and strength of the entire property insurance industry, but its huge risks and compensation amount are undoubtedly a huge challenge for the insurance industry in China, which is in the primary development stage. We believe that when designing the catastrophe insurance system, the government will give full consideration to the development status of the insurance industry in China. Therefore, we believe that this snowstorm is a positive impetus to the development of insurance industry (especially property insurance) in China.

1. snowstorm compensation: auto insurance is dominant.

According to the statistics of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, as of February 10, the insurance industry * * * received 803,400 reports of rain and snow disaster insurance, paying10.40 billion yuan. Among them, property insurance has paid 975 million yuan and life insurance has paid 65 million yuan. Among them, motor vehicle insurance claims ranked first, paying 467 million, accounting for 45%, followed by corporate property insurance and engineering insurance, paying 374 million, accounting for 36%.

From a regional perspective, in the former 1 1 area which suffered the most, snow disaster compensation accounted for 86%, of which Hubei and Hunan accounted for 19% and 14% respectively, followed by Guizhou, Jiangxi and Anhui, accounting for more than 7%.

According to a preliminary estimate, the total compensation for this snowstorm is between 5 billion and 8.5 billion yuan, and we estimate it at around 7 billion yuan.

2. Low insurance rates lead to limited compensation for snowstorms.

According to the premium data released by insurance companies in Hubei, Guizhou, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Guangxi, we calculated the market shares of China Property Insurance, CPIC Property Insurance and Ping An Property Insurance in the hardest hit areas, and found that the market share of China Property Insurance in the hardest hit areas was higher than the overall market share, while the market share of CPIC and Ping An in the hardest hit areas was lower than the overall market share.

According to the market share of the hardest hit areas, of the total compensation amount of 65.438+0.4 billion as of February, the compensation expenses of China Property Insurance, Pacific Insurance and Ping An were about 56.5438+0.1.01.08 billion and 98 billion respectively. According to the overall market share, the salaries of the three companies are: 46 1 billion,10.2 billion,1.10.2 billion respectively. Since the 449 million compensation expenditure announced by China Property Insurance is close to the amount calculated according to the overall market share, we use the method of overall market share to estimate the snowstorm compensation of insurance companies.

Based on the total compensation of 7 billion yuan, we estimate that the impacts of snowstorm on China Property Insurance, China Pacific Insurance and China Ping An EPS are -0.25, -0. 10 and -0.09 yuan respectively. According to the compensation expenditure of 10 billion yuan as of February, the impact of snowstorm on China Property Insurance, China Pacific Insurance and China Ping An EPS is -0 respectively. According to the estimated compensation of 5 billion yuan, the impact is -0.20, -0.08 and -0.07 yuan respectively; If the estimated compensation is 8.5 billion yuan, the impacts will be -0.34, -0. 13 and -0. 12 yuan respectively.

Reinsurance factor is not considered in the above calculation, and reinsurance indemnity can reduce the impact of snowstorm on performance. However, the premium sharing rate of insurance companies in China is not large, and the reinsurance payment will not be very high.

3. A snowstorm gives birth to a catastrophe insurance?

3. 1. The snowstorm highlights the serious shortage of insurance coverage.

According to the statistics of relevant departments, as of February 12, there were 7 people dead 107, 8 people missing and 15 12000 people resettled urgently. The direct economic loss caused by the disaster is111billion yuan (excluding the losses of industrial and mining enterprises).

As of that day, the insurance industry * * * received 85 1 10,000 reports of rain and snow disaster insurance, paying 654,380+0.4 billion yuan. This figure accounts for less than 1% of the total economic losses caused by the disaster. Even according to the estimated 5 billion yuan, this ratio is less than 5%. In addition, some of the damage is "extraordinary".

It can be seen that the insurance coverage rate in China is still quite low. In fact, the insurance density and insurance depth in China are only US$ 56 and 2.8%, while the international average has reached US$ 565,438+02 and 4.2%.

Of course, the low insurance rate also depends on the situation. In the second half of 2006, China began to implement compulsory insurance, which greatly improved the insurance coverage rate of auto insurance. In this snowstorm compensation, motor vehicle losses have also been well compensated, paying 467 million yuan, accounting for 45% of the total compensation (as of February10); On the contrary, agriculture, as the key area of this disaster, only received 4010.4 million yuan of insurance compensation due to the extremely low insurance rate, of which 310.87 million yuan was available for sow insurance, accounting for only 4% of the total compensation.

On the one hand, the low premium rate reflects that the economic compensation function of insurance is still very small, and its impact on the national economy is limited; On the other hand, it also allows insurance companies to avoid this compensation disaster.

3.2. Catastrophe insurance: Fuxi? Unfortunately?

The slight role of insurance in catastrophe compensation has caused the insurance industry and relevant departments to reflect, and the resulting policy actions are: relevant departments are studying how to establish a catastrophe insurance system and how to establish and accumulate catastrophe insurance funds, and intend to submit this plan to the State Council to establish a catastrophe risk mechanism in China under the leadership of the government. A snowstorm has led to an insurance popularization education, and may also produce a catastrophe insurance. If so, it will have a far-reaching impact on the development of the insurance industry, and property insurance will leap to a new level after compulsory insurance.

The introduction of catastrophe insurance can certainly expand the scale and strength of the entire property insurance industry, but it may also have a great impact on the performance of property insurance companies. Catastrophe risk has great uncertainty, its risk sharing needs years of vertical accumulation, and the compensation brought to insurance companies is also amazing. How to deal with the catastrophe risk is a great challenge for the insurance industry in China, which is in the primary stage of development.

Whether it is a blessing or a curse depends on how the catastrophe insurance system is designed. We believe that catastrophe insurance cannot be bypassed if China's property insurance industry is to mature. In terms of system design, the government will fully consider the development status of the insurance industry. Therefore, we believe that this snowstorm should be a positive impetus to the development of insurance industry (especially property insurance) in China.