In fact, the stock game in the stock market is very similar to China's economic transformation, both of which are incremental stock games with obvious structural adjustment.
The stock market reflects market expectations, and the understanding of economic transformation is expressed in its own way. This expression may be wrong, or there is a problem with the degree of reaction.
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Stock games are hard to get? A-share shock welcomes "monkey market"
Near the Spring Festival, funds are once again "tight", which not only disrupts the bond market, but also puts pressure on the rebound of A shares last week. Last Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index pulled out a Changyang line with an increase of 3.22%, which was regarded as the "charge" of the rebound.
However, the market cheered, and the sudden plunge last Thursday afternoon destroyed the rebound. Investors noticed that on this day, the reverse repurchase of exchange government bonds opened higher and higher, and the interbank market once heard the news of tight funds.
A fund manager in Shanghai told china securities journal that the shortage of funds in the interbank market is an accidental event, and the timely action of the central bank will not lead to a liquidity crisis.
Institutional investors should be wary that the central bank did not adopt the RRR interest rate cut policy previously predicted by the market to ease the financial pressure before the holiday, so as to further reduce the market's expectation of RRR interest rate cut.
This shows that under the multiple pressures of RMB exchange rate, the capital situation of A-share market this year may not be as optimistic as previously predicted. In this context, the "monkey market" that fluctuates repeatedly may become the normal state of A shares this year.
"Living water" in different places is hard to attract.
20 16a shares made a good start, which deviated from the "slow bull" market expected by many fund managers. At the end of last year, affected by the downturn of the real economy and abundant liquidity, the view of "asset shortage" was troubled for a while.
It has become one of the important logics for many institutional investors to lay out the 20 16a stock market. As a result, many private equity funds and Public Offering of Fund increased their positions, intending to lurk in order to meet the new "slow bull" market driven by OTC funds.
However, market trends force them to re-examine their investment strategies. "the trend of a shares in the first week of the new year is often regarded as a preview of the overall trend of the market that year. Judging from historical experience, it has a great impact on investor confidence.
This year's start is obviously not optimistic, which has hit the popularity of the A-share market and put some pressure on the market capital chain. I dare not do radical asset allocation in the short term. "
The research director of a fund company in Shanghai told china securities journal, "At present, the A-share market is more emotional, except that some insurance funds are frequently placarded.
I have never seen substantial off-exchange funds entering the market, which will cause great pressure on some highly valued stocks. A shares in the Year of the Monkey should be more careful. Good Buy Fund Research Center pointed out that since 20 16, it is not just A shares that have been hit hard.
The global equity market is full of sorrow, but after the previous decline, the A-share market has become a panicked bird. "No, it is not good", there are many obstacles to emotional recovery and the road is long.
The Game between Value and Emotion
Facing the unpredictable A-share market, the differences among institutional investors are deepening. As staunch fans of value investors, although some Public Offering of Fund have recently reduced their positions slightly to control liquidity risk.
However, most fund managers said in an interview that the value of high-quality growth stocks has not disappeared because of the recent plunge in A shares. On the contrary, because of the "wrong killing" in the market, it provides them with a better buying point.
Mo Haibo, director of the investment research department of Wanjia Fund, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, although the A-share market has experienced a rapid and sharp decline, with the accumulation of the decline, in theory, many stocks began to appear more suitable buying points.
"From the overall macro environment, the RMB exchange rate has gradually rebounded and stabilized recently, the US economic data is vacillating, and the interest rate hike is expected to be suspended in the first quarter. It is expected that investors will gradually recover from the cautious expectation of global risky assets.
The early risks were fully released in the process of decline, and both blue-chip and growth-oriented theme stocks showed a significant decline. "Mo Haibo said. Private equity funds aiming at absolute returns are relatively cautious about the market.
A partner and investment manager of a private equity firm in Shanghai pointed out that at present, emotions are still controlling the A-share market, and the A-share market is constantly fluctuating due to many factors such as exchange rate, changes in overseas markets, and active or passive reduction of major shareholders.
As the variables affecting the market are increasing, it is difficult for the market to find certain opportunities at present, which increases the wait-and-see mood of funds inside and outside the market. "The most important thing in the A-share market is the wealth effect, and the most difficult thing to form is the wealth effect.
That's why there is the saying that' cattle are short and bears are long'. We can't blame the emotional factors in the market, because they exist objectively and are difficult to reverse. The first thing we should consider is how to survive in this emotional market. "
The investment manager said, "Most private equity funds have liquidation clauses, which are generally set at a high level. Even if you look at the middle line and the long line correctly, a short-term plunge in a week or two may make you explode, even if you look at the right value. What's the use! "
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People's Network-It is difficult for stock games to attract A-share shocks to meet the "monkey market"