Most of the market cycles in third-and fourth-tier cities are in rotation, and the investment value is not great, and the time window is relatively short. In addition to the demand for self-occupation, the mainstream investment strategy in these cities is to lay out in advance+realize: lay out in advance before the rapid development of the city and realize after the start.

2 strong third-tier cities are the first choice for third-and fourth-tier investment in buying a house

We have identified 2 strong third-tier cities before, and it should be said that the fundamentals of the top cities have changed greatly. According to the urban development process, combined with economic development, productivity level, purchasing power, infrastructure perfection and other considerations, it is predicted that they will gradually approach second-tier cities and form a more mature market, which is the best choice for investing in buying a house. Take Foshan as an example, it borders on the southwest of Guangzhou, with perfect urban infrastructure and a high degree of integration with Guangzhou, which is greatly affected by the spillover of real estate demand in Guangzhou. Coupled with all kinds of favorable policies in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, it has also become one of the cities where real estate enterprises are competing to occupy the house in recent years, and the house price naturally rises.

Therefore, an important indicator to judge whether a third-and fourth-tier line has development potential is the activity of the second-hand housing market. Generally, the first-and second-hand transactions in mature markets are relatively active, and then the second-hand market will gradually occupy a dominant position, which is also the basic development logic of the mature real estate market.

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Avoid repeating the mistakes of "one set of ten years" such as Yantai and Weihai

The biggest bonus for buying houses in other third-and fourth-tier cities is the price difference, which includes the price difference with neighboring second-tier cities. The bigger the difference, the bigger the space; The price difference also represents the difference of land price. If the current land price is still neglected, there will be an upward opportunity for house prices in the future.

Another factor worthy of attention is the second-hand housing market. Judging from the current development of the third and fourth lines, except for a few cities such as Foshan and Huizhou, the second-hand housing market in most other cities is still relatively light. In particular, buyers in one market need to be cautious, that is, the real estate itself lacks self-use demand, which is completely driven by investment, similar to Yantai and Weihai more than a decade ago, so investors have a hard time.

This includes Beihai. The real estate market in Beihai was basically launched in 217. It has undergone a major adjustment for more than 1 years before, and it is difficult to cash out funds in a short period of time, which is a relatively typical case.

Third-and fourth-tier cities are welcoming new opportunities for development

In addition, I think we can focus on the following two types of third-and fourth-tier cities:

First, third-and fourth-tier cities with a strong ring line or a strong ring line will become satellite cities of these first-and second-tier cities as long as traffic and supporting problems are solved. For example, Kunshan, Taicang, Jiashan and other places around Shanghai still have some room for development in the future, relying on industrial undertaking and population spillover. The premise of this kind of city is the degree of correlation between its own planning and these mainstream metropolitan areas. If it can be fully matched, it can also greatly accelerate the urbanization process of these small counties, and this kind of model is common all over the world.

Second, cities that are completely independent and can't afford to be rich. These cities mainly rely on their own abilities and strengths. To judge its development, we should mainly examine it from several dimensions, such as population base, economic level, real estate maturity, urban construction and accessibility, and economic development. The core indicator is still the second-hand housing market, and we should mainly pay attention to the activity of transfer and lease. If a city's second-hand housing market is underdeveloped, then we can basically judge that high housing prices are likely to be "short-lived" and there is no practical support.

(The above answer was issued on February 22, 218, and the current relevant housing purchase policy should be based on the actual situation)

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