On June 8, when the 500-billion-yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) expired, the central bank did not directly renew it, but said that it would renew the MLF due this month around June 15, and the specific operation amount would be determined according to market demand and other conditions.
The central bank's move is seen as a signal of liquidity concern. On June 8, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. On the same day, the central bank launched a seven-day reverse repurchase of 654.38+02 billion yuan, and the winning bid rate remained unchanged at 2.2%. The net withdrawal of funds on that day was 380 billion yuan.
The Beijing News reporter noted that although the pace of loose operation has slowed down recently, the loose stance of monetary policy has not changed. A few days ago, when talking about the goal of "the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) and social financing scale is significantly higher than last year" put forward in the government work report, a person close to supervision told the Beijing News reporter that grasping the total amount of monetary policy will ensure that (M2 and social financing scale growth rate) is higher than last year. In April, the growth rate of the two indicators was above 1 1%, and maintaining this speed can meet the requirements.
The funds are "tight" and the central bank has continuously invested 340 billion.
According to the announcement of the central bank, in order to keep liquidity in the banking system reasonably abundant, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 654.38+02 billion yuan was launched on June 8. This is the third consecutive trading day for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation to be "open", with * * * putting in 340 billion yuan and winning bid rate of 2.2%.
However, in June, the liquidity pressure is often large. Judging from this year's situation, Huachuang's collection team said that the medium and long-term liquidity demand is more due to the large-scale expiration of subscription and MLF, the short-term reverse repurchase expires at the beginning of the month, and the disturbance of national debt issuance and redemption continues, and the end of the month coincides with the half-year point. There are many demand factors for liquidity, and the supply factors are mainly concentrated in fiscal expenditure or month-end payment. The specific scale of refinancing to replenish liquidity is unknown.
According to Wind's statistics, 720 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and MLF expired this week. In addition to the 500 billion yuan MLF due on Monday, 70 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on Thursday, and 654.38+050 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on Friday. Looking at the whole month, another 240 billion MLF expired on June 19.
The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor), which reflects the adequacy of market liquidity, fluctuated on June 8th (8. 1 10, 0.00, 0.00%). On the 7th and 4th day of1,Shibor decreased by 4.5 bp, 1.5 bp, to 1.942% and 1.69%, respectively, continuing the downward trend of last week. However, Shibor rose by 30.8 bp to 1.89% overnight, and will rise by 6.5 bp to 1 .647% at mid-year point.
In addition, another weather vane, DR00 1, jumped up in early trading and then fell back to 1.88%, while DR007 fell back from the policy interest rate close to 2.2% to 2.04%. As of June 8th, 16, DR 00 1.72 12%, and the latest interest rate of DR007 is 1.87%.
The bond market ended its losing streak, and the easing pace of monetary policy slowed down.
Although the current liquidity pressure is still there, the statement that the central bank will continue in February has changed the market's expectation of funds and is regarded as a signal that the central bank cares for liquidity. On June 8, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the main contract 10, 5-year and 2-year rising by 0.32%, 0.22% and 0. 19% respectively.
Previously, the bond market experienced a "strong headwind". Since May, the price of treasury bonds futures has been deeply adjusted. By the beginning of June, the futures prices of three kinds of government bonds had fallen back to the levels around the Spring Festival, giving back the yield space brought by loose monetary policy to hedge the impact of the epidemic in February-April. Market interest rates are also rising. Among them, the "floor price" Shibor, which fell to 0.66 1% on April 29th, rebounded to 2% in late May. DR00 1, once as low as 0.6625%, also returned to above 1%.
In fact, the position of regulators on monetary policy easing has not changed. In the early days of the outbreak (early February), the central bank successively offered trillions of tools such as reverse repurchase and RRR reduction, and lowered the interest rates of reverse repurchase and MLF to ease the financing costs of some regions and enterprises. In April, another round of "interest rate reduction" was carried out. Up to now, the hedging policy implemented by the central bank has exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. However, as the domestic epidemic situation stabilized, the pace of loose operation slowed down. Among them, in May, the market failed to wait and see to cut interest rates, and the reverse repurchase tool providing short-term liquidity was suspended for 37 trading days from the end of March to the end of May.
Last week, the central bank launched an innovative monetary policy tool, but it did not directly loosen the currency, but let credit go first. Ming Ming, deputy director of CITIC Securities (22.970, 0. 13, 0.57%), said that under the control idea of "credit first", loose money is not a prerequisite for liquidity transmission, which also led to poor expectations of monetary easing in the market to some extent.
Many people in the industry also mentioned that preventing "fish in troubled waters" has also reversed the market's loose expectations of monetary policy. This year's government work report clearly stated that it is necessary to "strengthen supervision and prevent idle arbitrage of funds". Huachuang's collective team said that the recent policy attention to bond market arbitrage and entity financing idling may be strengthened, and the marginal upward trend of capital prices triggered market expectations. Significantly tightened.
Pay attention to preheating in interest rate adjustment, expert: the probability of RRR reduction is small.
The central bank only revealed that MLF will be launched in the middle of the month, but it is not clear whether it will raise interest rates. The market will pay more attention to whether RRR and interest rate will be lowered in June.
Zheshang Securities (9.980, -0. 14,-1.38%) believes that the RRR cut in June is a high probability event. Judging from previous years, June every year is a period of high incidence of "money shortage" in the market, mainly for two reasons. First, banks are facing mid-year assessment, and the mid-year settlement of enterprises leads to the return of funds. Second, June coincides with the end of the quarter and half a year, and wealth management products expire. In the face of relatively tight funds, it is expected that the central bank will further implement measures to reduce RRR and cut interest rates in June.
There are also differences in market views on whether RRR will be lowered. Founder Securities (7.020, -0.04, -0.57%) believes that considering the peak of interest rate bonds and the issuance of special anti-epidemic government bonds, the probability of RRR reduction in June is high, the global "faucet" is still open, and liquidity will not turn around until the economy returns to normal level. Jin Yi's team at Guohai Research said that in the face of high maturity pressure and external disturbance, the central bank is expected to increase liquidity this week, and the possibility of lowering RRR to replace MLF is not ruled out.
However, color, chief economist of Founder Securities, believes that the government work report has an unprecedented new requirement, that is, the growth rate of M2 and social financing is significantly higher than last year's target. It is acceptable for DR007 to be lower than the reverse repo rate, but if it is too low, such as 70bp, 80bp or even more, it will lead the central bank to intervene by suspending reverse repo, stopping lowering MLF interest rate and window guidance. "DR007 should be a desirable level between 1.5%-2%. In June, the central bank will conduct MLF operations, but interest rates may not be adjusted to push the market interest rate closer to the ideal central level. " Color analysis theory.
From the color point of view, the continuous reduction of RRR leads to the increase of money multiplier, and the demand for base money in the financial system is not too great. Moreover, it just dropped last month and needs to be digested and absorbed, so it is expected that the probability of RRR reduction in June is not great. If liquidity is tight, medium and long-term liquidity can be supplemented by refinancing and short-term liquidity can be supplemented by reverse repurchase.
In this regard, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank (5.750, -0.0 1, -0. 17%), said that considering the seasonal liquidity pressure for half a year, the central bank may restart the 28-day reverse repurchase and adopt the combination of "reverse repurchase +MLF" to maintain liquidity and market interest rate stability.